Running Back My Guys (based on ADP)
“My Guys” are players I want on my team and have my full support come draft day. These are players I believe in whether it be situationally, talent, production or opportunity.
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Player: Christian McCaffrey
Team: San Francisco 49ers
PPR ADP: RB4 / Pick Overall: 9 (1.9)
Let’s not over complicate this. You’re either in on CMC or you’re not. If you are, it’s most likely the riskiest pick of 2025. You’re spending a Top 5 pick on a player who has played a total of four, seven and three games in three of the last five seasons. However, you’re also drafting a player that’s been the RB1 overall in two of the last five seasons and Top 3 four times in his eight year career. We all know that when CMC is healthy and right, he’s the best RB in the NFL (for fantasy at least). It’s a risk I’m willing to take. He is healthy at the time of this write up and drafting him at the back of the First Round could win your league on its own. Getting CMC and another stud RB/WR on the turn is insane. I’m all in on the discount.
Player: Alvin Kamara
Team: New Orleans Saints
PPR ADP: RB19 / Pick Overall: 57 (4.8)
Look, I get it. The Saints project to be dreadful. So what? How often do we see solid fantasy players come from horrendous teams? Often enough for me to target a premiere threat and annual PPR machine like Kamara. He finished lower than RB19 – his current ADP – just three times last season and has never finished lower than RB18 on the season. Last year, in what felt like a “bust” season for him, he was RB10 in PPR. He only scored in five different games last season. I believe that will increase and only boost his value. The shaky QB situation in NOLA helps Kamara with dump downs – at least five targets in all but three games last season. He’s the top weapon for the Saints. You can get him as your RB2/RB3. That’s a steal. Imagine getting CMC and Kamara in the first three rounds? Do it.
Player: James Conner
Team: Arizona Cardinals
PPR ADP: RB21 / Pick Overall: 65 (5.4)
Conner keeps forgetting he’s entering his age 30 season, that he was written off in college due to Hodgkin’s lymphoma cancer and the Cardinals drafted Trey Benson last year to replace him. Thus, Conner is once again a draft day bargain going in the 5th Round. Dude’s an “RB Deadzone” savior. He finished higher that his current ADP as RB21 11 times in 2024 including six Top 10 weekly finishes. Conner was 11th in rushing yards with 1,094 and had over 1,500 total yards with nine touchdowns. If Kyler Murray can get back to his old form (… if), Conner might have a better season in 2025. He’s a weekly RB possibility going as an RB2/RB3. I’ll do it one more time… imagine CMC, Kamara and Conner as three of your first five picks with an elite WR/TE with your other two picks. Risky sure, but also league winning. I play to win.
Player: RJ Harvey
Team: Denver Broncos
ADP: RB20 / Pick Overall: 61 (5.1)
Flava Flav would suggest we, “don’t believe the hype. Don’t. Don’t. Don’t believe the hype!” Unfortunately for him, I absolutely believe the hype. Harvey not only put up 1,400+/16 TDs then 1,500+/22 TDs his final two years in college, but he was drafted in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft by a team with little competition and a HC/play caller who LOVES to throw to his running backs. In his first two seasons in Denver, Sean Peyton has ranked fourth and first in RB target share. Quick, name the RBs in Denver the last two seasons… exactly. Harvey has been compared to former fantasy football favorite Devonta Freeman and could be Peyton’s new “Alvin Kamara”. Remember, Kamara was third on the depth chart his rookie year behind Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. Kamara ended up the RB3 in PPR with 100 targets and 120 carries… as a ROOKIE. I’m not saying Harvey will put up those numbers, but I am saying that he has the opportunity to and not much in his way from becoming the lead Broncos ball carrier quickly. I’m “trusting the process” with this one, but if I miss out on the proven vets listed above, Harvey feels great as my RB2/RB3 with RB1 upside.
Player: Kaleb Johnson
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
PPR ADP: RB26 / Pick Overall: 76 (6.3)
Another rookie as a “My Guy”? I know. Don’t judge me. Or do. Either way, I’m doing it. When my colleague Jefferson hypes a rookie on the dynasty front, I get extra tingly on the redraft side because I know I’ll find better value in the short and possibly long term. Johnson lands in Pittsburgh who we know has an identity to run their offense through the ground game. With an ancient (in NFL terms) Aaron Rodgers slinging it and perennial run game warrior Arthur Smith calling the plays, I expect Johnson to get work on early downs and potentially more if Jaylen Warren (who we all love and expect a bounce back from) can’t stay healthy or has another inefficient start to the season. Johnson earned First-Team All Big 10 and Big 10 Running Back of the Year in 2024. That’s over elite competition from Oregon, Ohio St. Michigan, Penn State, etc. Najee Harris somehow got ~300 touches last season. Yikes. Johnson had Top 10 breakaway percentage and yards after contact ratings as well as Top 15 elusiveness. That’s great for a 6’ 1” 225 lbs. back. The Steelers have to protect Rodgers. They won’t be able to catch up with teams like the Ravens and Bengals (or the Browns who ran the most plays in the NFL last season???), so they need to slow the game down on the ground. Arthur Smith is salivating at winning time of possession. This pick is a mix of opportunity, potential and situation. Rodgers’ RBs have always been elite for fantasy catching the ball out of the back field and being highly used in the red zone. I expect more of the same for Johnson. He’s a no-brainer in Dynasty, but I love him in redraft as well.
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