FTN has created a metric called adjusted line yards which shows the push an offensive line gets vs. a defensive line from the line of scrimmage. This metric helps measure the impact a good or a bad offensive line will have on the ground game in any given week.
In this analysis, we have reviewed the adjusted line yards of the offensive line and defensive line to identify the top matchups for Week 4. Below you will see the matchup rank for each player. The matchup rank represents the rank of the defense based on our adjusted line yards metric.
To see the full analysis and where each offense, defense, and matchup ranks as a whole, go check out our new adjusted line yards metric here on Razzball.com.
If you want to see the original data, you can find it on FTN!
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Top Running Back Starts
Through Week 3, the Houston Texans had the toughest run schedule according to our adjusted line yards matchup metric. The Ravens, Colts and Jaguars all have a sub-four non-weighted adjusted line yards metrics. This has resulted in all three of those teams being in a bottom 10 matchup so far in 2023. In Week 4, Dameon Pierce will face the Pittsburgh Steelers! This will be the first time this season that he will have a matchup inside the top 16 in non-weighted adjusted line yards. The Steelers’ run defense has allowed the second most rushing yards to running backs this season.
The news of Cam Akers’ signing should have us on edge, but as Akers learns the offense, Alexander Mattison should continue to handle the bulk of the work. In Week 3, Mattison finally flashed his upside, rushing for 93 yards and securing five receptions for 32 yards vs. the Chargers. This week Mattison will look to build off that strong game vs. a vulnerable Panthers run D. In 2023, Carolina has allowed the fifth most rushing yards and the second most rushing touchdowns to running backs.
So far, in 2023, the King has been dethroned. Derrick Henry currently sits as the RB21 through Week 3. The silver lining is that Henry has faced the fifth toughest schedule so far this season, and things should be looking up as soon as Week 4. Not only are the Bengals the top matchup according to our metric, but they have been beat up by early down grinders Nick Chubb (18-106) and Gus Edwards (10-62-1). You’re most likely starting Henry anyway, but here is a vote of confidence if you were hesitant to start him this week.
Top Running Back Sits
Brian Robinson has been a revelation this season as he has seized the RB1 job in Washington. Through Week 3, Robinson is the RB9 in fantasy football, averaging 15.8 PPR PPG. However, after a strong start to the season, Robinson came back down to earth in Week 3 vs. the Buffalo Bills. In Week 4, he has another tough matchup against a stout Eagles front seven. In 2023, the Eagles haven’t allowed a single running back to rush over 40 yards this season. With Robinson’s limited role in the passing game, he’s probably best viewed as an RB3/Flex this week.
Saquon Barkley is, at best questionable heading into Week 4, but even if he suits up, we suggest sitting him vs. the Seahawks. Seattle’s elite run defense has been masked by allowing five rushing touchdowns already this season. However, Seattle is only one of three teams in the NFL to allow under three yards per carry so far in 2023. This tough matchup, along with Barkley playing at less than 100%, means even if he plays, you should probably look elsewhere for a starter in Week 4.
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