Before I get into this article, let me be clear about one thing:
Terrelle Pryor is an absolute physical freak! He is a 6-foot 4-inch tall receiver that can run a 4.4 forty yard dash and I was able to witness his dominance first hand in Nashville last season when Pryor snagged 9 receptions for 75 yards and 2 red-zone touchdowns.
Now that I stated the obvious, please allow me to spend the rest of this article arguing that 2017 Fantasy Football drafters should not be buying the Terrelle Pryor hype because he is an unpolished receiver, his new team underwent turnover in the offensive locker room, and most importantly, his draft cost is simply too high.
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Sure, Pryor is only one year removed from fully transitioning from a quarterback to a wide receiver and accumulated nearly 80 catches and more than 1,000 yards for the Cleveland Browns last season. However, Pryor’s route running and offensive feel from the receiver position is unpolished compared to other WR1 options around the NFL. To Pryor’s credit, the 28-year old has been busting his butt trying to be an elite receiver by working out with the GOAT Randy Moss during the offseason, but it takes top-flight receivers many years to master the nuances of their craft in the NFL. Last season, the talent-lacking Browns made it a priority to get Pryor the football in any way possible, often using simple slants, screens, fades or go-routes to maximize Pryor’s freakish abilities to purely out-run, out-jump and out-muscle defenders.
With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon moving on to Tampa Bay and San Francisco respectively, Pryor will be immediately leaned on as an alpha receiver that will be double-covered for the pass-happy Kirk Cousins. Washington also lost young offensive coordinator Sean McVay to the Los Angeles Rams over the off-season, so a new offensive system and building chemistry and trust could get overly complicated for a raw and inexperienced receiver in Pryor. Unlike 2016 in Cleveland, Pryor will have to compete for targets with elite (when healthy) tight end Jordan Reed, shifty slot-receiver Jamison Crowder, and scat-back Chris Thompson, which should limit his reception and yardage volume upside in Washington in 2017 to pretty much what he produced last season. FantasyPros.com projects Terrelle Pryor to catch about 70 receptions for 1,000 yards and 6 TDs.
However, the difference is that in 2016, Pryor was an unknown commodity that probably went in the late rounds or was undrafted in your home league. As of August 23, Fantasypros.com has Terrelle Pryor ranked as the 15th wide receiver and carries an ADP of 34. Spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on Terrelle Pryor in 2017 would be a mistake when drafters can use that draft capital on other proven target monsters such as Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffery, Davante Adams, Michael Crabtree or Larry Fitzgerald within a round or two. Running backs that are coming off the draft board in the same range as Terrelle Pryor and are more valuable to own include a workhorse in Carlos Hyde and Dalvin Cook and dual-threat pass catching backs in Christian McCaffery and Ty Montgomery. I will certainly be rooting for Pryor to succeed in his transition to receiver and I will enjoy watching his highlights, but I won’t be owning Pryor at his inflated cost in 2017.
Tactically, if a drafter employs an aggressive zero-RB strategy, Terrelle Pryor would be an amazing ceiling WR3 for a fantasy team, but under a balanced strategy, Pryor will be an inconsistent touchdown dependent WR1 if selected in the 3rd or 4th round of your draft.
BenK’s Razzball Ruling: Sell Terrelle Pryor! Spending a 2017 3rd or 4th round pick is way more expensive than taking a chance on Pryor in the 2016 waiver wire for basically the same production. Let someone else pay the Pryor Premium in 2017.
If you don’t believe me, check out Jay’s rankings where Terrelle Pryor is ranked as his 17th PPR receiver…
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Tough call, but agree that draft price is mighty steep. Could be a boom or bust pick.
PPR keeper question for ya:
$60 Amari Cooper or $45 Todd Gurley?
Already keeping David Johnson and Jordan Howard, so leaning toward Cooper. But since it’s PPR, wondering if that $15 difference tips the scales in favor of Gurley.
@Beastman: Thanks for the read Beastman! This is a tough decision, I would keep Gurley and the extra $15 to improve your team elsewhere. Your RB position is stacked now, so I would spend my first 3 auction picks and most of your remaining budget on WR. Even though it is PPR, I see Cooper having to battle for targets with Crabtree in addition to losing red-zone touchdowns to BeastMODE.
Cooper did have a lot of bad luck last year with so many TDs called back due to penalty, so I think he can definitely be an awesome WR2 on your squad if you choose to keep him!
K. Britt or T. Riddick 1/2 pt PPR points league ?
@PHIL: Thanks for the read Phil, I would say keep Kenny Britt at the 1/2 PPR. I am high on Abdullah taking over the main RB role in Detroit and Zenner should be the goal-line back also.
I envision Britt should be able to match and exceed his numbers from last season on a more consistent basis, but Theo will also probably have some ceiling games sprinkled into the season.
Quick question on a keeper
I can keep Aaron Rodgers with my 2nd round pick(#16 overall)
Standard scoring, 6pts for QB TD’s
Should I keep him?
@Chris: Thanks for the read Chris! I would keep Rodgers in that format of 6pts per TD. The 2nd round pick is hard to give up, but you should be able to find receivers late in the draft to make up for it.
I have cook and gore (David Johnson as RB1, non-ppr) – would you rather have Latavius Murray or Marlon Mack (or robert turbin) as a bench/handcuff? or neither?
@The Fantasy Dick: Thanks for the read TFD! I would rather have Marlon Mack as my handcuff to Gore because I think Mack is way more dynamic than Murray and Gore is more likely to be usurped/injured than Dalvin Cook.
@benk: Thanks Benk!
@benk: What about (non-ppr, 12 tm, no TE’s required) – Hogan over Coleman or Zay Jones? I have Eifert too, TEs not required, but I like his TD upside, better to have a WR? My other WRs are: Benjamin, Alshon, Pierre Garcon. I also have Matt Breida on the bench, is he worth rostering or 1 of those receivers? Thanks
Somebody just waived Maclin (12 tm, non-ppr, no TE required and we start 2 rbs, 2 wr/tes, 1 flex (rb/wr/te))
Would you rather have Maclin than: Hogan, Eifert, Garcon, or Breida?
Or do I sit tight since guys like Zay Jones, Ginn, Mike Williams, Rudolph, Ertz are all available later on?
@The Fantasy Dick: Hey TFD, I would rather have Maclin over Breida if you don’t have Hyde on your team. If you do have Hyde on your team, I’d have to know your other options at RB to see if it’s worth it to have Breida as a handcuff.
I would not rather have Maclin over Hogan, Eifert or Garcon though.
I think Maclin is a much better option than Zay, Ginn and Mike Williams.