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Save yourself the headache and skip these busts at each position (plus my honorable mention) in your fantasy football drafts. Who did I neglect? Does Kyle Pitts make the cut? Comment below your busts for 2023 fantasy football!
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QB: Dak Prescott (DAL) – Current ADP: QB10 // 7.10 (as of 8.23.23)
Prescott had been a Top 10 fantasy QB in three of his first four seasons. He got hurt in 2020 after only playing five games. His 16-game pace that season was bonkers – 5,940/29-298/10 – but never came to fruition. Then he bounced back in 2021 as QB9 with a career-high of 37 passing touchdowns. However, last year was a dud. He missed five games and somehow still led the NFL in interceptions with 15 (also a career-high). Dak started his career with six rushing touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. That fell to three in his next two and just one each of the last two years. For context, he rushed for three touchdowns in just five games before injury in 2020. He’s run for a total of two over his last 28 games. He averaged 40 fewer passing yards per game last year than in 2021.
Adding Brandin Cooks and having Michael Gallup healthy should help, but his former gun-slinging OC Kellen Moore is now coaching Justin Herbert. New OC Brian Schottenheimer wants the Cowboys to “play fast”, but we’ve seen Dak buckle under pressure. He’ll be fine, but first-year systems make me nervous. I’d rather take the upside of Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers and even Derek Carr two or three rounds later ahead of Prescott in drafts.
RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Current ADP: RB10 // 3.01 (as of 8.23.23)
Taylor is arguably the best fantasy RB when healthy and at full capacity, like we saw in 2021 when he was RB1 over Ekeler by 30 PPR points. That, however, is not the case in Indy right now. He’s had contract issues all summer and may or may not be injured with an ankle and back issue, depending on which member of the Colts’ front office you talk to. Taylor himself claims to be healthy, but he’s currently on the PUP list. He then demanded and was granted permission to seek a trade on August 21st. As of this writing, he’s a Colt, but who knows? The NFL doesn’t pay RBs, and Taylor is seeking a four-year commitment.
Talent-wise, he’s a no-brainer in the third round, but I’m worried about everything else. He’s got a rookie quarterback who is able to run on goalline and short yardage himself, an aging (once great) offensive line and a new system under OC Shane Steichen. Now, Miles Sanders did have 11 rushing TDs last year with Steichen in Philly after ZERO in 2021, but by not being in the offense during preseason, Taylor is missing valuable time with the first team and new offense. He might get paid or agree to disagree, play and smash. We know he can. I just have a gut feeling this is going to be ugly this season for numerous reasons, and want no part of the saga.
I’ll take the dip next year when he’s on a new team after a lackluster season. Draft with caution. Give me Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, Jamyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones, all being drafted later than JT.
WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) – Current ADP: WR24 // 5.01 (as of 8.23.23)
McLaurin has been an unfortunate product of his environment so far in Washington. He’s had numerous mid-tier quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke… to name a few), almost no other weapons to divert attention, various offensive schemes and distractions within the franchise itself. Now, he’s got the new hotness of Jahan Dotson (whom I love at WR36 // 7.02) and unproven quarterback Sam Howell. Plus, another new offense under new OC Eric Bieniemy, which has historically been labeled as complex and difficult to pick up.
Even if I believed he could overcome all of that, he came up injured in his preseason game versus Baltimore. He left the game with a toe injury, but thankfully the x-ray was negative. Regardless, if that lingers, he could be hampered on top of everything else I’ve noted. I love McLaurin as a player and can’t wait for him to escape Washington, but until he does, I’ll pass. I prefer Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Williams, Mike Evans and his teammate Dotson over McLaurin. All said players have an ADP later than “Scary Terry”.
TE: Kyle Pitts (ATL) – Current ADP: TE7 // 7.01 (as of 8.23.23)
Pitts has all the talent in the world for a tight end. That’s obvious. However, like McLaurin, he’s at the mercy of his surroundings. After an electric rookie season with 1,026 receiving yards and a lone touchdown, he followed that up with just 10 games before an MCL injury, posting just 356 yards and two touchdowns. He’s got three total TDs in 27 career games… yikes. Not only is second-year wide receiver Drake London expected to take a major leap this season, but the Falcons went against all current NFL ideology and drafted “The Next Saquon” Bijan Robinson in the first round.
The offense will center around him as it did Derrick Henry in Tennessee under ATL HC Arthur Smith. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder will run the offense but has only played four games averaging 200 yards per game and just two total touchdowns. The Falcons could be a Madden team if it clicks, but I’d rather either go can’t-miss TE early or upside super late with David Njoku, Tyler Higbee, Cole Kmet, Chig Okonkwo or Sam LaPorta. Or, a dozen wide receivers also going in the 7th Round. Love Pitts; won’t draft him.
Honorable mention: Josh Jacobs (LVR) – Current ADP: RB9 // 2.12 (as of 8.23.23)
Here I go again. My annual fade of Josh Jacobs. If you’ve been following my content over the years, you know I’ve been fading Jacobs and Miles Sanders every year. Now, both got the best of me last year, but I’m back on the wagon. To be fair, Jacobs was the RB1 in non-PPR and RB3 in ½ and full PPR last season. He was incredibly reliable playing all 17 games which is nearly impossible for an NFL running back, and he led the league in rushing yards with 1,653. He also had 12 touchdowns and a career-high 400 receiving yards. Jacobs does score. I’ll give him that.
However, this won’t happen again. Over his first three seasons, he’s had between 850 and 1,100 rushing yards. That’s 500-800 fewer yards per season. His offensive line is graded as the 19th “best” by Pro Football Focus which is nine spots lower than last year. Hunter Renfrow missed seven games, and Darren Waller missed eight in 2022. None of the backs behind Jacobs stayed healthy. Jacobs was 15th among running backs with 31 PPR points and cumulative yards from inside the 5. That’s not very efficient. Off the field, he’s been… off the field… and away from his new quarterback Jimmy Garappolo due to contract differences.
He recently reported he’d be back with the team as the contract settles itself out, but this still only gives him two weeks with his full offense. In non-PPR, Jacobs is probably a borderline value, but in ½ and full PPR, he’s a fade for me. Similar to Taylor (above), I’ll be targeting Mixon, Etienne, Gibbs, Jones, and maybe even Dameon Pierce before Jacobs… not to mention the excellent WR group in the back of the 2nd / early 3rd Round. Plus, he literally hates fantasy football. Make this year five of no Jacobs for me.
For more from Sky and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @skyguasco.
