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Sleepers win weeks. Breakouts win leagues. Let’s start with winning the week! After you have your stable running backs/wide receivers and quarterback/tight end, be sure to scoop up these potential week-winning sleepers at each position (plus my honorable mention). These sleepers are outside of the Top 12 QBs/TEs and Top 24 RBs/WRs per Razzball’s ADP. Do you agree? Who did I neglect? Where does Romeo Doubs land?
Comment below with your sleepers for 2023 fantasy football!
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QB: Derek Carr (NO) – Current ADP: QB19 // 12.12 (Sky’s Rank: QB12)
Carr isn’t consistent, but he is fun to watch and has weekly upside. Perfect candidate to kick off Sleepers. Would you believe me if I told you last season was the first he didn’t throw for at least 4,000 yards in five seasons? Well, it’s true. Why would I lie in an article? Anyway, he also threw for the fourth most TDs in his career (24 – 8th most in the NFL), and Davante Adams was PPR WR3. I know, I don’t get it either; it doesn’t matter. The point is, he did that without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for half the season. Two years ago, he threw for 4,804/23 as the QB12.
There’s upside with Carr and a weekly floor perfect for a QB2/3 in Super Flex leagues and good enough for a QB1 streamer in single QB leagues. Now in New Orleans, he inherited a rising star in Chris Olave and a wiley vet in Michael Thomas. The last time Carr had two stud receivers was in 2015/2016 with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper when he was QB13/QB8, throwing career-high TDs of 32/28, respectively. He also gets arguably the best receiving back in the NFL once Alvin Kamara returns after a three-game suspension and has two quality tight ends in Juwan Johnson and his old Raiders pal Foster Moreau.
He’s being drafted as the QB19 (if drafted at all) and has top 10 upside in my opinion. If you fade QB, look for mas-CARR-a man. Get it? Because of the dark lines under his eyes? Whatever. #WhoDerek!
RB: James Cook (BUF) – Current ADP: RB29 // 7.06 (Sky’s Rank: RB22)
James Dalvin Cook (yes, James’ middle name is Dalvin and visa versa) has a chance to become the best fantasy option in his own family for the first time this season. He posted a modest rookie season with just 687 total yards and three touchdowns but saw his workload increase weekly down the stretch as the Bills faded out Devin Singletary, who is now in Houston. Cook graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No.1 RB in breakaway run rate (15+ yards)! Cook also had a 27% target rate per route run which was similar to Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey.
His only competition for carries is Damien Harris, who came over from New England but is already hurt. When I’m in the 7th Round, I prefer the floor and upside of Cook over other 7th Round RBs like Isaiah Pacheco, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams and Alvin Kamara (suspended three games). Again, this is a Sleepers article. Don’t reach. Absorb the value at ADP.
WR: Romeo Doubs (GB) – Current ADP: WR58 // 11.06 (Sky’s Rank: WR38)
Romeo Doubs was off to a nice start as a rookie before getting injured in Week 9 and missing five games before returning in Week 15. Over Weeks 1-8 prior to injury, Doubs was WR40 with 9.6 PPR PPG. That includes a 0-point performance when he was targeted four times but had zero receptions in Week 7. Outside of that dud, he was WR9 in Week 3 and had more than 13 PPR points in three of seven contests. He saw an 80% snap share with roughly seven targets per game.
Christian Watson is getting the hype after exploding last season, and rightfully so. However, Doubs proved to be a more polished route runner and gained rapport with Jordan Love early this summer which bodes well for year two. He’s being drafted as the WR58. I have him inside my Top 40 WRs, but won’t have to draft him there. Sleepers are all about value. I’d rather save SIX rounds by drafting Doubs in the 11th vs. Watson in the early 5th. The Packers may not be pretty this season, but the targets will be funneled. Give me the best value in Doubs.
TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) – Current ADP: TE20 // 14.05 (Sky’s Rank: TE20)
You’ll probably draft a tight end before having to consider Ferguson in the 14th Round, but if you draft a risky option like George Kittle or Kyle Pitts or take another late-rounder like Chig Okonkwo or Cole Kmet and want to double up, Ferguson is a nice bench stash is upside. He only had 19/174/2 last year backing up former teammate Dalton Schultz who was TE9 in PPR. Schultz is now in Houston, and Ferguson is slated as the TE1 in Dallas ahead of rookie Luke Schoonmaker who is battling a preseason foot injury.
Over the last three seasons, Schultz has seen 89, 104 and 89 targets resulting in TE16, TE4 and TE9 finishes in PPR. Ceedee Lamb is the top option for Dak Prescott, obviously, but after that, it’s a toss-up between new addition Brandin Cooks and oft-injured Michael Gallup. I don’t expect Ferguson to be a week boom, but I do believe he was Top 12 weekly upside and can certainly outpace his TE20 ADP. No need to reach, but if you need a security blanket at the end of your draft, I’d take a look at Ferguson.
Honorable mentions: Rookie WRs (as of 8.31.23)
Jordan Addison (MIN) – Current ADP: WR37 // 7.06
Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) – Current ADP: WR38 // 7.11
Quentin Johnston (LAC) – Current ADP: WR45 // 8.12
Zay Flowers (BAL) – Current ADP: WR47 // 9.04
Jalin Hyatt (NYG) – Current ADP: WR71 // 14.04
This is more of a philosophy. Rookie wide receivers tend to develop throughout their first season and, more often than not (assuming health) outpace their preseason ADP. These rookies have the potential to reward drafters by midseason for cheap. In the case of Addison and Flowers, they’re already the WR2 on their respective teams. Smith-Njigba and Johnston are WR3 on theirs but should still see a role and could jump significantly should anything happen to the two options ahead of them.
Hyatt is a wildcard because the Giants have six options… literally. Nobody profiles as an alpha though, leaving room for anyone to jump into that role. Hyatt has seen burst plays in camp, and all other Giants receivers have injury histories. Don’t reach for these guys, but as a WR4/5 (or even WR6/7), they could return serious value. Just be patient as they find their stride.
Remember… Justin Jefferson was either undrafted or dropped after Week 2, his rookie season. He ended up with 1,400 yards as the WR6.
For more from Sky and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @skyguasco.
