What’s going on everyone, and welcome back to another “Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em” post here at Razzball. Today I’ll be dissecting some great Week 11 matchups, and some not-so-great matchups.
Let’s get to it!
With this game destined to become a shootout, it’s great for fantasy owners that he’ll have to throw it 40+ times. It’s even better that he’ll get to do this against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed opposing QB’s to score more than 28.3 fantasy points per game. If you’ve got Wentz, he needs to be locked into starting lineups.
Fitzpatrick isn’t the worst option in the world this Sunday against the Giants. While the G-Men have played a little bit better against QB’s in recent weeks, this is still a unit that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. While he will be on the road, and there is always a risk of him not performing well, he’s a good low end QB1 this week against a secondary that can be beat.
While Prescott didn’t throw a single TD against the Dirty Birds last year, this is a different, and worse Falcons defense in 2018. This year, they rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, and have let opposing offenses just do whatever they want against them (just look at the Browns last week). While Prescott will be on the road, he’ll play indoors, and will likely get to throw it 30+ times.
It’s a very tough matchup for Cousins on the road in Chicago, as he’ll have to face off against a Bears defense that ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA, and looked incredible last week with the return of Khalil Mack. If Cousins is your only option, that’s fine, but I wouldn’t feel great about giving him the nod this Sunday.
While Smith played very well against him last year as a Chief, I don’t have any expectations for him this Sunday. The Texans defense has been playing some very good football as of late, ranking 4th in Football Outsider’s WEI defensive metric. They’re also giving up less than 20 fantasy points per game over the past 4 weeks, so Smith doesn’t need to be a main option in lineups on Sunday.
Dalton absolutely struggled against the Saints last week, and I don’t expect it to get any better for him this go-around in Baltimore. This Ravens defense has been playing very well this year, ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t force Dalton into any lineups.
He should get the ball plenty in this game against Cincinnati at home. It’s a great matchup for Collins as he’ll get to face a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA, giving up close to 43 fantasy points per game to all opposing RB’s in the past 4 weeks. If you got him, start him.
Philip Lindsay (@ LAC)
While the Chargers do rank 15th in rush defense DVOA on the year, they’ve been struggling against the run in the past few weeks, giving up close to 29 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s. Even though it’s likely that Royce Freeman will return, we can still give the nod to Lindsay in our lineups.
Ingram exploded last week against the Bengals on only 16 total touches and 40% of snaps, and I think he can easily perform like he did last Sunday tomorrow against the Eagles. In the past 3 weeks, the Eagles have given up close to 5.7 yards per carry, and Ingram should be able to take advantage of that.
While Mack has played well as of late, and on the season, I’m not expecting much out of him this week against Tennessee. In the past 4 weeks, the Titans have been very stout against the run, only giving up 3.0 yards per carry, and 16 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s. I can’t feel good about Mack tomorrow.
While I won’t say that Mixon should be benched, no questions asked, I do want to say that there is some serious downside to his fantasy stock this week against Baltimore. Not only is it a very tough matchup this week against the Ravens, but he was very underwhelming in Week 10, and has since landed on the injury report with a knee issue. While we’ll see in the next 24 hours if he’ll be good to go, I would just use caution for him this week.
In 2 games against the Vikings last season, our boy Howard only averaged about 3.0 yards per carry on 28 carries. Nothing about him or the matchup jumps off the page for me this week, so I can’t advocate for him being in our starting lineups.
With Kupp out, and Cooks being a little boom-bust as of late, our main man Bobby Woods is now the most consistent #1 option for Goff and the Rams, and his target share moving forward should just skyrocket. He’ll square off against a very beatable KC secondary in a game that is likely going to turn into a shootout. He should be a lock in almost all lineups.
While Tate was a little underwhelming in his first game, his target share and role in the offense will likely get a nice boost as he continues to develop chemistry with Carson Wentz in this offense. This week will be a good time to test that out, as he’ll get a great matchup in the slot against a Saints defense that has given up close to 48 fantasy points per game to all opposing WR’s. If you got him, he’s not a bad WR3/flex option at all.
Larry Fitzgerald (vs. OAK)
While I haven’t been a huge Fitz or Cardinals fan in fantasy, I know when it’s the appropriate time to use him, and you couldn’t get a better time than this week against the Raiders. Thanks to his weekly 10 targets/game, he’s definitely in the conversation as a WR3/flex option this week.
While in my head, I’m the President of the John Brown Fan Club, I too understand when I need to give up on my icons (for just a week). While this matchup is great on paper, I’m not sure I can trust him this week with the possibility that his starting QB could be Robert Griffin III or Lamar Jackson. While he’ll always be a starting option, I don’t think I can tell people to actively start him on Sunday.
While ARob had a huge game last week against the Lions, it’s a totally different matchup against the Vikings, who have given up only 18 fantasy points per game to opposing WR’s in the past 4 weeks, and 0 TD’s in the past three weeks. You shouldn’t force Robinson into your lineups unless you absolutely need him.
Not only did Thomas struggle against them last year as a Bronco, but it’s not a great matchup overall on the road in Washington against a stout secondary. He hasn’t even fully got accustomed in this offense, so he isn’t a must-start.
Howard is a great option this week against the Giants, as he not only put up 14 fantasy points against them last year, but the Giants have continued to struggle against the TE position all year, as evident by George Kittle last week catching everything in sight.
He came through last week scoring a TD, and it’s a good matchup against the Jaguars as they’ve allowed TE’s to score more than 23 fantasy points per game against them. If you need a streaming option, look no further than McDonald.
Ricky Seals-Jones (vs. OAK)
RSJ had a good week last Sunday, catching 5 of 9 targets. He’ll get a great matchup against the Raiders, as over the past 4 weeks, TE’s have scored more than 24 fantasy points per game against them. Fire him up!
He’s done very little against them in his last two games, and the Bears have only allowed close to 5 fantasy points per game to opposing TE’s.
It’s a bad matchup on paper for Trey Boo Boo, as they’re very stout against TE’s, only giving up close to 6.9 (nice) fantasy points per game to the position.
Kickers and D/ST
Arizona Cardinals (vs. OAK)
At home against the Raiders? You know what to do.
Wil Lutz (vs. PHI)
He’s 7/7 in his past few games, and he should have plenty of opportunities to get some points at home against Philly
While this is a very stout defense, I’m not even sure that they can totally shut down Mahomes. You don’t need to necessarily drop the Rams defense, but just be aware that it’s a bad matchup for them.
Dan Bailey (@ CHI)
Bailey hasn’t been all-worldly, and I wouldn’t expect a lot from him on the road in Chicago.
Alright guys, that is all my time for today. Good luck to everyone in Week 11, and I’ll be back on Wednesday for my Week 12 Rankings! As always, if you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate to leave one below!
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