I think I have an obsession with stats, and I’m not sure if it is a good thing or a sickness. Every time I look at the numbers, I see more numbers. I’m currently in the early stages of beginning to learn about regression analysis. And by early stages, I mean that it’s a topic I’d really like to learn more about. I really should have paid attention in college instead of whatever it was I was doing the few times I actually showed up to class. Back to Fantasy Football. In the preseason, I talked about the upgrades to The Stats Machine (TSM) for this season. One of the biggest changes was the fact that opposing defenses will now be factored into offensive performances. This is still true, but will not go into effect until after Week 3. TSM needs at least three weeks of defensive statistics in order to generate defensive rankings. With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s get to our Week 1 results…

 

Quarterback

Tom Brady (Score: 64.6) – With his 4-game suspension freshly overturned, Tom Terrific went out there and put forth the best outing of any quarterback in week one. Completing 25 of 32 pass attempts for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns, Brady made an official statement. I’m the Super Bowl champ and I’m here for 16 games and I’m ready to rock. I’ve been a fantasy fan of Brady for years. I’ve drafted him for the past 3 seasons and I drafted him this year. I only wish our draft had been earlier so I could have gotten the looming suspension discount. One way or another Brady always seems to find a way to rack up the fantasy points. Honorable Mention: Tony Romo (Score: 63)

Carson Palmer (Score: 61.3) – Palmer makes this list as the QB owned in less than 80% of Yahoo! leagues. 19 completions for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns is pretty good day. I’d keep an eye on Carson. If you are the type of player that likes to roster two QBs, and you don’t have two studs, I’d recommend making Palmer your backup. I tried to snag him this week, but was outbid. Honorable Mention: Alex Smith (Score: 57.9)

 

Running Back (PPR)

Carlos Hyde (Score: 34.05) – This is why I need at least three weeks of defensive stats. Hyde rushed for 168 yards. This was more than any other running back. He did so against the Vikings defense. As a result, the Vikings defense has allowed the most rushing yards. That would make them the worst defense against the rush. But is that really that case? Or is Carlos Hyde just the best rusher? It’s like a catch-22. Hyde’s 6.46 yards per carry was the highest of any RB with at least 10 carries. His 2 touchdowns were just the icing on the cake. Honorable Mention: Matt Forte (Score: 32.6)

Ownership Under 70% – Danny Woodhead (Score: 24.15) – I discussed Woodhead in my post on Wednesday. It went something like this. Woodhead should be owned in all PPR leagues. You can read the full description here. Honorable Mention: Benny Cunningham (Score: 23.4)

 

Running Back

Carlos Hyde (Score: 35.65) – See above for description. Honorable Mention: Matt Forte (Score: 28) and Chris Ivory (Score: 26.7)

Ownership Under 70% – Danny Woodhead (Score: 22.75) – See above.

 

Wide Receiver (PPR)

Keenan Allen (Score: 44.3) – Holy 15 receptions Batman! I can’t believe not one of them was for a touchdown, but who cares. 17 targets, 15 catches and 166 yards. Yes, please, and thank you. Sadly I do not own him anywhere, but I can still appreciate such a performance. I do own Stevie Johnson on nearly all of my teams and love that this will likely help his future performances. While defenses are busy keying in on Allen, Johnson will be free to catch some passes. I doubt Keenan will match these numbers again this year, but he should continue to put up solid numbers. Honorable Mention: Julio Jones (Score: 43.8)

Ownership Under 70% – James Jones (Score: 25.2) – I also discussed James in Wednesday’s post. It went like this. Catching all 4 passes thrown to him for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns, and with Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, makes Jones a player I’d want to own. Considering his ownership shot up from 30% to 82%, I’d say many of you agreed. Honorable Mention: Percy Harvin (Score: 24.3)

 

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones (Score: 27.9) – I fully expect Julio to have a monster season and to compete with Antonio Brown as the top WR this season. Jones caught 9 of 11 passes for 141 yards and 2 TDs. His 15.6 yards per reception was second amongst all receivers to catch at least 5 passes. The only player ahead of him was Nate Washington who had 6 receptions for 105 yards (17.5). Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins (Score: 22.98)

Ownership Under 70% – James Jones (Score: 18.7) – See above.

 

Tight End (PPR)

Tyler Eifert (Score: 37.45) – Hell of an “eifert” out there this week Tyler! This is me patting myself on the back for getting him for $2 in my auction league while Gronk went for $51 and Kelce went for $14. Eifert caught 9 of 12 targets for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did have one drop, but I am confident Palmer will continue to look in his direction. Honorable Mention: Rob Gronkowski (Score: 37.2)

Ownership Under 70% – Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Score: 33.75) – ASJ baby! Here’s another guy I talked about on Wednesday. His 5 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns drove his ownership from 59% up to about 77%. I’m still on the fence on him, but what’s not to like after week 1. Honorable Mention: Ladarius Green (Score: 24.95)

 

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (Score: 35.2) – The Steelers defense certainly got Gronk’d last Thursday. I live about 10 minutes from Gillette Stadium and it has been Gronk Mania round these parts. Five catches and three touchdowns, that’s quite the TD/Reception ratio. We all know that he’s the top tight end, but the only way you were going to own him was if you took him in the first round. Those who did sure did get first round production. Honorable Mention: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Score: 30.75)

Ownership Under 70% – Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Score: 30.75) – See above.

I realize that these Week 1 results feel a lot like obvious choices, but I expect things to get better as we accrue more data. I’m looking forward to another stats filled season, but in the meantime, here’s the output from The Stats Machine on which this post was based. (Excel Spreadsheet.)

 

 

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  1. David says:
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    Truly appreciate your contributions, but in all honesty, what is the purpose of this today?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @David: Thanks. Consider this my current rankings. You can download the spreadsheet to view full rankings. As the weeks go on, the data will be more meaningful.

      Introduction to The Stats Machine for some.

  2. Jason Morgan says:
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    Great stuff malamoney! I enjoyed this series last year and am looking forward to it this year. Especially with the changes.

  3. RotoLance

    RotoLance says:
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    Check out the book by Wayne L. Winston, Mathletics, if you want to learn more about regression and other types of analysis. Tom Tango’s “The Book” is a good one too.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @RotoLance: Thanks! I will be purchasing these books as soon as I finish the book I am currently reading. They look awesome…

  4. letsgoletsgo says:
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    James jones/ asj/ frank gore / d freeman for tre Mason/Sammy Watkins/ lamar miller

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @letsgoletsgo: I’d want Lamar Miller, but depending on your current TE, I can see taking the James Jones side of this deal. Is this PPR?

  5. FrankGrimes says:
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    Mamamonkey

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @FrankGrimes: Tata toothey!

  6. Duck butta says:
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    12 team 1 pt ppr
    My calvin and lynch for odell murray and woodhead??

    I have Ellington and Spiller but as you know one or both not playing this week.

    Other WRs Edelman and Davante.

    Thoughts sir, thank you.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Duck butta: I’ll take the Odell side…

      • Duck butta says:
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        @malamoney: updated deal sorry calvin for odell woodhead gore…im sure still the odell side but just to be on the safe side….thanks malamoney

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @Duck butta: Who would make such a deal? Odell side all the way. I’d kinda be pissed if that trade happened in my league…

          • Duck butta says:
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            @malamoney: he still has foster and julio ..just drafted good…I honestly rather leave him with julio and calvin then leaving him lynch and foster. Thanks again..

  7. Dom B says:
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    Okay so I have tony romo and Eli Manning and Tony is out for several weeks. Should I drop Tony Romo or stash him and should I ride out on Eli Manning or should I add a quarterback from waiver, Available QBs Colin Kapernick, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Ryan Mallet, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, and Jay Cutler Who do I drop if I pick one up…. ALSO is Jason Witten still a TE 1 with Weeden. Here is my roster

    QB Tony Romo
    RB Leveon Bell
    RB Jonathan Stewart
    WR Julio Jones
    WR AJ Green
    TE Jason Witten
    Flex Latavius Murray
    K STEVE HAUSCHKA
    DEF RAVENS
    Bench
    QB ELI MANNING
    WR KEENAN ALLEN
    RB GIO BERNARD
    WR JOHN BROWN
    WR STEVE SMITH
    RB lagarette blount

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