To be honest, Florida kinda sucks.  Not the state of course… just the football teams.  [Jay’s Note: Oh, I can make plenty of cases for the state sucking.]  And not even all of them… more like two of them, specifically… I mean, yeah, the Jags roughed up the Browns a bit last week, but say that out loud one more time and let me know if you feel any more validated as a Jaguars fan? Didn’t think so. Tampa Bay? They got two solid wins against former powerhouses, but does knowing what we know now about the Steelers and Saints make those wins lose a little luster? Don’t get me wrong, a win is a win, but then again, it’s really not.  Miami is, by far, the best team coming out of the state, and they’re the real deal (for real!).  They’re two parts sexy defense, and one part boring-but-game-managing offense.  I’m totally picking on the northern Florida teams this week.

 

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill (46%) @ JAX: The Jaguars defense made last week’s Hoyer call look like a cruel joke. Tannehill has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks from week to week, and he is getting better as the season progresses. He’s also added a bit of rushing to his portfolio, gaining over 30 yards on the ground each of the last 3 games. If there’s a week he gets to punch one in himself, this could be his best chance. With his ability to move and good decision making, Tannehill remains a high floor streaming option.

Teddy Bridgewater (10%) @ TB: Bridgewater got his first start on the road last week, which really wasn’t a bad showing for him against a solid Bills defense. This week he draws the Bucs at home, and Tampa Bay’s defense is not the Bills defense (for those keeping score at home). In fact, they’re pretty terrible, especially in the secondary. This is a great opportunity for Bridgewater to expose a bad team on the road. Additionally, the Vikings rush attack seems to be developing well with McKinnon taking the majority of the snaps, so it should set up the pass game nicely. Consider Bridgewater a high upside stream against a team he’ll be able to use his arms and his legs against.

 

Tight End

Owen Daniels (55%) @ CIN: Daniels isn’t the kind of tight end that’s going to get you 10+ points every week, but rarely does he give you a goose egg, and that’s why he’s a great streaming option. Flacco has looked Daniels’ way regularly this season, and he’s coming off a season-high 9 target game. I don’t expect the number to be that high this week, but I expect that Flacco will be checking down against a tough Bengals D. Look for Flacco and Daniels to exploit the one weakness of the Bengals defense: the LB and slot corner coverage.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Miami (55%) @ JAX: Let me continue to pile it onto the Jags here for a minute. Miami still has one of the better defensive lines in the game, and Jacksonville still has one of the worst offensive lines in the game. That combination usually results in a good day for the defensive line. Miami should be able to apply a lot of pressure to Bortles and force mistakes, whether it’s in the form of sacks, interceptions or fumbles. He won’t have a lot of time to throw, and Miami’s cover game is good enough to freeze Bortles in the pocket. Expect a low point total with a handful of mistakes from the Jags this week

Minnesota (13%) @ TB: And now I’ll pile it on Tampa Bay… Consider the Vikings a high upside defensive stream for the week. Minnesota’s defensive line, similar to Miami, can really apply pressure. They’re top-5 in the league in sacks and have 6 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles to make them the 12th ranked fantasy defense. As I mentioned in the opener, the Bucs offense has looked decent at times, but they’ve done it against defenses whose reputations are better than who they actually are.

 

Kicker

Blair Walsh (51%) @ TB: This is a little too hard to resist. The Tampa Bay defense has given up the most scores (TD + FG) against offenses that are within 30 yards of the endzone. As I always say, I like using the 30-yard line because I think the kickers have the best chance of making field goals from that spot on the field and in. Against weaker defenses in this area, like the Bucs, kickers have more opportunities to kick field goals, and in the worst case, can net a point with a PAT. Consider Walsh a safe stream option this week.

Robbie Gould (36%) @ NE: Gould has been pretty quiet this year, but he has a strong leg. Look for the Bears to bounce back a bit this week after all the criticism they’ve been getting, and open up some good opportunities for Gould. That’s all I got, folks. Gut call here.

 

Week 7 Recap: 

RCL/Yahoo Standard 0.5 PPR Scoring 

Brian Hoyer: 215 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush, -1 yds, 1 FL = 5.50 pts (30th QB)

Carson Palmer: 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT = 17.12 pts (12th QB)

Jared Cook: 3 tgt, 3 rec, 25 yds = 4.00 pts (25th TE)

BAL: 7 PA, 5 sack, 1 safety, 1 FR = 13.00 pts (4th DST)

Billy Cundiff: 1 20-29, 1 40-49 = 7.00 pts (T-17th K)

Randy Bullock: 3 30-39, 2 PAT = 11.00 pts (T-7th K)

 

Catch me in the streets, or follow me on Twitter @Nicolas_Kern

  1. Allan says:
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    Start tannehill over stafford?

    • Nico says:
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      @Allan: Falcons secondary is awful. Definitely start Stafford.

  2. Dom B says:
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    Should I trade Delaine Walker or is he still a TE 1 should I trade d.Walker and Percy harvin for Jordan Reed

    • Nico says:
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      @Dom B: I’d hol

      • Nico says:
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        @Nico: hold*

  3. Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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    lots of people are still basing their “CIN is a top D” on the first 3 weeks of season, and maybe last season. this one, they are 19th or 20th.
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @Crapshoot Kershaw: this doesn’t take away from o.daniels as a good option, of course, since CIN is 15th against TE’s.

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @Crapshoot Kershaw: just in case what you meant about CIN’s D was that it is a good fantasy D (as opposed to real life one, sort of how PHI is good fantasy D this year), here’s their ranking and per game pts in 3 separate systems of scoring for fantasy
        1. 28th (10.33 pts per game). this is from a yahoo league where pts against and yards against hurt you
        2. 23rd (5.5 pts per game). yahoo league where yards against don’t hurt.
        3. 21st (10 pts per game). yahoo league scored similar to 2nd league, but must be more big play pts
        4. 29th overall. this doesn’t incorporate per game, just overall pts, since NFL.com doesn’t let you index this by pts/gm. so they’d be a little higher, but still awful
        5. 29th in espn as well, but again, like NFL.com this isn’t on a per game basis, so they’d be a little better.
        that should clear that up.

        • Nico says:
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          @Crapshoot Kershaw: Ultimately, I think the Bengals have a good real-life defense, and I do believe the fantasy part of that will come around.

  4. Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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    i was wrong about PHI, they’ve moved up to 8th overall in real life stats.

  5. Adam says:
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    Which of these free agent QB would you like more to fill in for a BYE a couple weeks from now.. Orton vs KC or Carr vs DEN? Trying to stay ahead of the game in a deep league where I don’t have much FAAB left to spend. Maybe snag one of em this weekend before the games start.

    Also, in a league w/ +1 PPR and +3 bonus at 100 yds receiving or rushing…

    Who would you go with this week at FLEX? Andre Holmes @ CLE or Denard Robinson vs MIA

    Thanks!

    • Nico says:
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      @Adam: Man, to be honest, I’d try to look elsewhere. Those QB’s against those defenses could be rough. You might consider Flacco against the Titans or Davis against the Cards.

      I’d go Holmes for high upside. If you want to go with definite touches, go Robinson.

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