To be honest, Florida kinda sucks. Not the state of course… just the football teams. [Jay’s Note: Oh, I can make plenty of cases for the state sucking.] And not even all of them… more like two of them, specifically… I mean, yeah, the Jags roughed up the Browns a bit last week, but say that out loud one more time and let me know if you feel any more validated as a Jaguars fan? Didn’t think so. Tampa Bay? They got two solid wins against former powerhouses, but does knowing what we know now about the Steelers and Saints make those wins lose a little luster? Don’t get me wrong, a win is a win, but then again, it’s really not. Miami is, by far, the best team coming out of the state, and they’re the real deal (for real!). They’re two parts sexy defense, and one part boring-but-game-managing offense. I’m totally picking on the northern Florida teams this week.
Ryan Tannehill (46%) @ JAX: The Jaguars defense made last week’s Hoyer call look like a cruel joke. Tannehill has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks from week to week, and he is getting better as the season progresses. He’s also added a bit of rushing to his portfolio, gaining over 30 yards on the ground each of the last 3 games. If there’s a week he gets to punch one in himself, this could be his best chance. With his ability to move and good decision making, Tannehill remains a high floor streaming option.
Teddy Bridgewater (10%) @ TB: Bridgewater got his first start on the road last week, which really wasn’t a bad showing for him against a solid Bills defense. This week he draws the Bucs at home, and Tampa Bay’s defense is not the Bills defense (for those keeping score at home). In fact, they’re pretty terrible, especially in the secondary. This is a great opportunity for Bridgewater to expose a bad team on the road. Additionally, the Vikings rush attack seems to be developing well with McKinnon taking the majority of the snaps, so it should set up the pass game nicely. Consider Bridgewater a high upside stream against a team he’ll be able to use his arms and his legs against.
Owen Daniels (55%) @ CIN: Daniels isn’t the kind of tight end that’s going to get you 10+ points every week, but rarely does he give you a goose egg, and that’s why he’s a great streaming option. Flacco has looked Daniels’ way regularly this season, and he’s coming off a season-high 9 target game. I don’t expect the number to be that high this week, but I expect that Flacco will be checking down against a tough Bengals D. Look for Flacco and Daniels to exploit the one weakness of the Bengals defense: the LB and slot corner coverage.
Defense & Special Teams
Miami (55%) @ JAX: Let me continue to pile it onto the Jags here for a minute. Miami still has one of the better defensive lines in the game, and Jacksonville still has one of the worst offensive lines in the game. That combination usually results in a good day for the defensive line. Miami should be able to apply a lot of pressure to Bortles and force mistakes, whether it’s in the form of sacks, interceptions or fumbles. He won’t have a lot of time to throw, and Miami’s cover game is good enough to freeze Bortles in the pocket. Expect a low point total with a handful of mistakes from the Jags this week
Minnesota (13%) @ TB: And now I’ll pile it on Tampa Bay… Consider the Vikings a high upside defensive stream for the week. Minnesota’s defensive line, similar to Miami, can really apply pressure. They’re top-5 in the league in sacks and have 6 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles to make them the 12th ranked fantasy defense. As I mentioned in the opener, the Bucs offense has looked decent at times, but they’ve done it against defenses whose reputations are better than who they actually are.
Blair Walsh (51%) @ TB: This is a little too hard to resist. The Tampa Bay defense has given up the most scores (TD + FG) against offenses that are within 30 yards of the endzone. As I always say, I like using the 30-yard line because I think the kickers have the best chance of making field goals from that spot on the field and in. Against weaker defenses in this area, like the Bucs, kickers have more opportunities to kick field goals, and in the worst case, can net a point with a PAT. Consider Walsh a safe stream option this week.
Robbie Gould (36%) @ NE: Gould has been pretty quiet this year, but he has a strong leg. Look for the Bears to bounce back a bit this week after all the criticism they’ve been getting, and open up some good opportunities for Gould. That’s all I got, folks. Gut call here.
Week 7 Recap:
RCL/Yahoo Standard 0.5 PPR Scoring
Brian Hoyer: 215 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush, -1 yds, 1 FL = 5.50 pts (30th QB)
Carson Palmer: 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT = 17.12 pts (12th QB)
Jared Cook: 3 tgt, 3 rec, 25 yds = 4.00 pts (25th TE)
BAL: 7 PA, 5 sack, 1 safety, 1 FR = 13.00 pts (4th DST)
Billy Cundiff: 1 20-29, 1 40-49 = 7.00 pts (T-17th K)
Randy Bullock: 3 30-39, 2 PAT = 11.00 pts (T-7th K)
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