Good Afternoon, my three loyal friends! We’re midway through the season, and I wanted to take a chance to analyze our streamer performances over the last eight weeks. Are our streamers weak like your gramps complains about, or are they strong like a young stallion?! That’s what we want to find out here, kids. To start, I went back and looked at the ownership rates of players at our four streamer positions to figure out how many players at each position were owned by over 50% of teams. I found some interesting information:

QB: 20 TE: 16 K: 12 DST 17

In most leagues, 20 QB’s, 16 TE’s, 12 K’s, and 17 DST’s are held on teams over 50% of the time. These are the baselines to which we need to compare our streamers, since we are giving you players that are under 50% owned. We want our picks to outperform the Top-20 QB’s, Top-16 TE’s, Top-12 K’s and the Top-17 DST’s. So how did our streamer performances stack up against the averages? Overall, our average QB’s ranked 16.6 each week, TE’s ranked 21.2 each week (A Niles Paul 47th ranked week killed us), K’s ranked 17.5 each week, and DST’s ranked 14.8 each week. When you look at our ranks, you can see that we’re exceeding the baseline with our QB and DST picks, but underperforming in the TE and K department. We’ll look to rectify and improve these numbers in the second half of the season.

 

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning (63%) v IND: Eli Manning is 6-0 coming off his last six Bye weeks. He’s coming out of a Bye this year where he got to think about a pretty terrible loss against the Cowboys for two weeks, and he gets to go straight to a Primetime game at home. This is a bit of a risky maneuver because Indy does have a decent secondary, but as Ben Roethlisberger proved, they’re definitely not impenetrable. Manning also seems to be coming out of his funk from the first two games, in which he threw 4 interceptions. He’s now only thrown 1 INT over his last 5 games. Manning has a high floor here, and a possibility for a great night. NOTE: Probably due to his BYE, Manning’s ownership spiked over the last day, so I’ve added another streamer with a quick analysis.

Blake Bortles (10%) @ CIN: Last week, a commenter by the name of “Crapshoot Kershaw” hit me with some fantasy stats about the Cincinnati defense. The stats weren’t impressive, but I knew they were a good real-life defense. My theory is that any good player (or in this case unit) in the NFL can usually be relied upon as a solid fantasy prospect, even if not the best (Dolphins DST this year). Well, in this case, I was just plain wrong. After seeing what they did against the Ravens, I couldn’t take anything positive from the run defense, pass defense, or pass rush. It’s great to see a few picks from them, but one was just a simple underthrow by Flacco. With that evaluation behind us, Bortles appears to be a solid, deep stream this week. Remember, last Sunday, he played the Dolphins who have one of the best pass rushes in the league. He struggled on Miami’s side of the field, but that was expected. With a little more time in the pocket and the rapport he’s been developing with his receivers (namely, Allen Robinson) all season, I like him in this spot.

Teddy Bridgewater (10%) v WAS: Gonna double-dip on Teddy. This is 100% matchup based. The Skins are on a short week, and they have an abysmal secondary. Consider Bridgewater a very high upside stream this week.

 

Tight End

Jace Amaro (7%) @ KC: As the season has gone on, it appears that fantasy-tight-end-hoarding has become rampant. Does anyone have any standards anymore? Chivalry is dead! The TE options at less than 50% owned are all unpredictable, but with the recent QB change in Jets camp, Amaro could be a decent stream. Amaro didn’t get a target last Sunday until Vick came into the game, and he ended with 5 total receptions on 5 targets (51 yards). 4 of those 5 targets were on the final drive, and it shows you that Vick is looking Amaro’s way in check down situations, which is a great sign. Look for Vick to utilize the physical masterpiece he has at tight end, because if we know anything about Vick, we know he likes getting bailed out.

Coby Fleener (30%) @ NYG: While Dwayne Allen is the star of the Indianapolis Tight End Show, Fleener is still getting the best supporting role awards. Against the Steelers last Sunday, Fleener saw 4 targets to Allen’s 2, although Allen got the TD. Fleener still gets redzone looks and has a respectable 3 touchdowns on the year. He’s 9th in redzone targets for all TE’s this season compared to Allen’s 13th. Ultimately, this is a very fluid situation, but seeing as how this should be a high scoring game, Fleener will get a handful of targets, and he’s about due for a touchdown. Consider him a high upside stream with a low floor.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Minnesota (35%) @ WAS: I’m back to Minnesota again this week. After a great showing last week against a very poor offense, the Vikings get the Washington Football Team coming off a short week. Here’s what I said last week: “Minnesota’s defensive line, similar to Miami, can really apply pressure. They’re Top-5 in the league in sacks and have 6 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles to make them the 12th ranked fantasy defense.” Well now, Minnesota has moved up to the 7th ranked fantasy defense with 7 interceptions, and they’re tied for 3rd in the league in sacks (25).

 

Kicker

Billy Cundiff (3%) v TB: Here I am, still analyzing how team defenses allow scoring when offenses are within 30 yards of the endzone. Tampa has allowed 20 TD’s and 13 FG’s from that area of the field this season, which is a whole lot of scoring (and a whole lot of scoring opportunities). I like this streak to continue. More field goals!

Mike Nugent (17%) v JAX: On the same track as what’s written above, Jacksonville has allowed 14 TD’s and 20 FG’s this season. Those 20 field goals are tied for the most in the league! Nugent should get plenty of chances as the Bengals fail to convert their touchdown opportunities.

 

Week 7 Recap:

RCL/Yahoo Standard 0.5 PPR Scoring

Ryan Tannehill: 196 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 rush, 48 yds = 15.64 pts (17th QB)

Teddy Bridgewater: 241 yds, 1 TD, 1 rush, 3 yds = 13.94 pts (22nd QB)

Owen Daniels: Wen’t from “He’ll be ready to go” on Thursday, to arthroscopic surgery on Friday. Thanks..

MIA: 13 PA, 4 sack, 1 safety, 2 INT, 1 FR, 2 TD, 1 BLK K = 28.00 pts (1st DST)

MIN: 13 PA, 5 sack, 1 safety, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 TD = 19.00 pts (3rd DST)

Blair Walsh: 1 30-39, 1 40-49, 1 PAT = 8.00 pts (T-18th K)

Robbie Gould: 1 PAT = 1.00 pts (T-28th K)

 

 Catch me in the streets, or follow me on Twitter @Nicolas_Kern

  1. Mike says:
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    Should I drop cordalle Patterson and pick up brandon cooks?
    Standard league

    • Nico says:
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      @Mike: They’re both sink or swim lately. I rank them about even, but I’d say Patterson bc he’s basically the only guy there.

  2. Mike says:
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    Brandin cooks or rueben randle ROS???

    • Nico says:
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      @Mike: Randle

  3. Allan says:
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    Got Stafford on bye and my backup is Tannehill. Rothlisberger, Smith, Hoyer, and RG3 are available. Should I drop Tannehill for one of those? Also drop Sankey fot Simms? I’ve got Rainey and Taliaferro starting this week cuz Lacy is on bye and Matthews and Jennings are still not back.

    • Nico says:
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      @Allan: Smith could be a safer play vs the Jets, but Tannehill is serviceable. I think you’re trading of mediocre for mediocre.
      Simms might have more carries than Rainey this week…. Something to monitor, but I think Sankey for Simms is fine.

  4. goodfold2 says:
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    so effectively, your comparing stream performance of your weekly picks vs replacement level player at each position.

    • Nico says:
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      @goodfold2: That is most definitely how I should have explained it.

  5. Dom B says:
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    My roster can you give each player a rank like QB 1 or 2 RB 1 or 2 there can be multiple RB 1s etc thx

    Starters:

    QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers
    RB – LeSean McCoy – Eagles
    RB – Andre Ellington – Cardinals
    WR – Kelvin Benjamin – Panthers
    WR – T.Y. Hilton – Colts
    WR – Michael Crabtree – 49ers
    TE – Larry Donnell – Giants
    PK – Steven Hauschka – Seahawks
    DEF – Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

    Bench:
    QB – Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
    RB – Fred Jackson – Bills
    RB – Charles Sims – Buccaneers
    WR – Odell Beckham – Giants
    WR – Percy Harvin – Jets
    TE – Delanie Walker – Titans

    • Nico says:
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      @Dom B: My 1/2/3 will be tiers.

      QB1, RB1, RB1, WR2, WR2, WR3, TE3, K2, DEF1 Bench: QB2, RB3, RB3/4, WR3, WR4, TE2

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @Crapshoot Kershaw: MIA actually is very good though (this year)

      • Nico says:
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        @Crapshoot Kershaw: That is where I get most of my real-life stats!

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @Nico: plus they have cool algorithms like “defensive dave”

  6. Barker says:
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    Bennett replacement

    Have cook currently

    Avaliable te ertz ( would have to waiver ) amaro harbor or stick with cook

    I figured with no quick cook would see more looks than usual but maybe that offense will just be a complete dumpster fire against SF

    • Nico says:
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      @Barker: Honestly, Cook might be your best shot. To me, he’s the “receiver” with the best opportunity for a touchdown on that team.

  7. Velocity_X says:
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    Given your assessment of Eli, would you advise dropping Tannehill for Manning as a bye-week replacement? This is in a Yahoo league with 4 point passing TDs, 6 point rushing TDs, and deductions for incomplete passes (accuracy is highly rewarded).

    • Nico says:
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      @Velocity_X: Interesting league setup. Yes, I would feel somewhat more confident in Eli this week.

  8. Dom B says:
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    Should I trade Kelvin Benjamin for Eddie Lacy as flex is my WR good enough to do it.

    Starters:
    QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers
    RB – LeSean McCoy – Eagles
    RB – Andre Ellington – Cardinals
    WR – Kelvin Benjamin – Panthers
    WR – T.Y. Hilton – Colts
    WR – Michael Crabtree – 49ers
    TE – Larry Donnell – Giants
    PK – Steven Hauschka – Seahawks
    DEF – Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

    Bench:
    QB – Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
    RB – Fred Jackson – Bills
    RB – Charles Sims – Buccaneers
    WR – Odell Beckham – Giants
    WR – Percy Harvin – Jets
    TE – Delanie Walker – Titans

    • Nico says:
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      @Dom B: I wouldn’t necessarily only because your RB’s look deeper than your WR’s, but I wouldn’t say it’s a bad trade if you did for Lacy’s upside.

  9. Dom B says:
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    Should I trade Kelvin Benjamin for Lamar Miller as flex is my WR good enough to do it.

    Starters:
    QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers
    RB – LeSean McCoy – Eagles
    RB – Andre Ellington – Cardinals
    WR – Kelvin Benjamin – Panthers
    WR – T.Y. Hilton – Colts
    WR – Michael Crabtree – 49ers
    TE – Larry Donnell – Giants
    PK – Steven Hauschka – Seahawks
    DEF – Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

    Bench:
    QB – Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
    RB – Fred Jackson – Bills
    RB – Charles Sims – Buccaneers
    WR – Odell Beckham – Giants
    WR – Percy Harvin – Jets
    TE – Delanie Walker – Titans

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