The end of another NFL season is upon us as Super Bowl LVII is almost ready for kickoff this Sunday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. To all of us sports nerds, the Super Bowl is an unofficial holiday. Whether we’re fans of the teams playing or not, we gather in groups to load up on wings and suds and hope for a great game. Even the non-football nerds find a way to enjoy the experience, chatting with pals, watching the halftime show, and of course, the commercials. The NFL created an experience where there’s something for everyone. So, why does the NFL still miss the mark in a few areas? Indulge me for a few minutes.
I live on the East Coast, so a start time of 6:30 PM kinda sucks for us, especially those of us with families. It’s great to get the wives and kids together too but by halftime, my wife is looking at her watch. I know the look, “the kids have school tomorrow…” Which brings up my second gripe. Couldn’t the NFL find a way to play the game on the Sunday before President’s Day? Better yet, hold the game on Saturday instead of Sunday. I realize the NFL must play nice with other major sports and their February events (NHL All-Star Weekend, NBA All-Star Weekend, Daytona 500, etc.) but come on NFL, you are the big boys in the room. Figure it out!
Sorry, I got off track for a bit there. I started off wanting to talk about another fun Super Bowl activity for us football nerds and went down a rabbit hole instead. Maybe I’ll come back to that topic during the offseason for a deeper look at possible solutions. For the rest of this article though, it’s all about prop bets!
What other game can you place a “small” wager on the flip of a coin, predict the first play of the game, pick the MVP, or even the color of the Gatorade bath, all at the same time? It’s great that more and more states are allowing us to make these “fun” bets legally as well. Kudos to all the stiffs out there who’ve come around. Even “bettor” though (pun intended) is the large number of platforms available for our props. Whether you play on Draft Kings (DK), Caesars, or one of the others coming online all the time, there is no shortage of options. If you’re compelled to establish multiple accounts, you can even shop around and get the best odds for your bets.
I usually place my props on DK so many of my selections below will be there, but I will include others of note in case you play elsewhere. Let’s have some fun!
Prop Bets Within the Game:
Here I will share some game props that stand out to me.
Score First:
The books favor the Eagles to score first with odds ranging from -110 to -125. The Chiefs’ odds are currently consistent between -105 to -110. I’ll probably be staying away from all of these.
Result of First Scoring Play:
As you can imagine, the options are all over the map. Eagles’ TD is consistent across multiple books at +175, while the Chiefs’ TD ranges between +185 to +200. For a first score FG, both teams are between +375 to +400. Apparently, the books think the Chiefs will win the coin flip or will punt first. Just in case you want to play one of those…
If you want to throw caution to the wind, you can get +6,600 odds for a first score safety by either team. How fun would that be?
Race to Points:
When I started writing this article, the Chiefs were receiving plus odds at DK (+100) to be first to reach 10 and plus odds across multiple sites (DK, Caesars, & Bet365) to reach 20. Today, the odds (-105) to 10 points have dropped but you can still get plus odds (+120) to reach 20 at DK. For the Eagles, the odds are -115 to -125 to 10 points and -105 to -120 to 20 points.
I know the Eagles’ Defense is tough, but would anyone be surprised to see the Chiefs log a few TDs in the first half? That Chiefs (+120) to 20 points at DK looks nice to me.
Team Totals:
Bet365 has the scoring line for both teams at 24 points, while Caesars and DK have the Eagles at 25.5 points and Chiefs at 24.5 points. This is where the advantage of shopping for a good line becomes crystal clear.
Say you feel this will be a low-scoring game with the Eagles around 21 points. The U24 odds at Bet365 are currently +130 but -105 and -110 at Caesar’s and DK, respectively. Go with Bet365.
If you want to bet KC and the over, the current odds are -105 (Bet365), -110 (Caesars), and +100 (DK). Go with DK.
Single Game Parlays:
For all of you who feel this game will feature some offensive, DK probably has a parlay you may like. Under their “Quick SGP” tab, they have one currently at +425: Hurts Anytime TD, Kelce Anytime TD and Over 51.5 total points. I’ll take a shot at this one.
For the Chiefs fans out there, DK has a couple of parlays you may like:
- Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards, Kelce Anytime TD and KC Moneyline (+475)
- Kelce Anytime TD, Pacheco 55+ Rushing Yards and Kelce 85+ Receiving Yards (+525)
For the Eagles fans, here are a couple just for you:
- Hurts Anytime TD, Sanders 65+ Rushing Yards and Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (+675)
- Eagles Half Time/Full Time, Over 26.5 Points, Hurts and Brown Anytime TDs (+800)
Team Rushing TDs:
The Eagles have plus odds (+105 to +150) for over 1.5 total rushing TDs. If you like this prop, Bet365 is the place to go (+150).
The Chiefs have plus odds (+110) for under 0.5 total rushing TDs. I’ll stay away from this one.
MVP:
As expected, Hurts and Mahomes are the most likely selections for SB MVP. I’ve seen odds for both in the +120 to +130 area. These seem like pretty good bets to me.
First To Punt:
Caesars has plus odds (+100) for the Eagles. Everywhere else for both teams is between -110 to -130.
Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback:
There are plus odds in the range of +125 to +130 everywhere for “NO” here. Throughout the season, kickoffs by both teams result in touchbacks around 65% of the time, about 5% above the NFL average. Over the past three games though, the Eagles are at 50% and the Chiefs are at 59%. Here are some historical notes:
- 28 of the past 31 opening kickoffs have been returned
- 3 of the past 31 resulting in touchbacks were all kicked indoors
- 3 of the past 31 resulting in touchbacks took place after the 2010 rule change moving the kickoff spot to the 35-yard line
Prop Bets “Outside” of the Game and Other “Fun” Ones:
Here I will share some of my favorite props outside the game as well as miscellaneous props.
National Anthem:
Of course, we must start this section with the National Anthem. This year, it will be sung by Chris Stapleton, but we don’t have any past data for him singing the Anthem. The average prop I’ve seen is 119 seconds, with plus odds for the under. For context, last year’s anthem, sung by Mickey Guyton, went over the 100-second prop by a full 10 seconds. Over the past 10 years, the longest solo was performed by Luke Bryan, who went for 124 seconds. This one looks to be set about right so I’ll probably stay away, but if I did bet this prop, I’d bet the under.
I don’t follow Chris Stapleton at all but apparently, he doesn’t wear black hats often. There are plus odds (+350) for him to wear a black hat and the opposite (-556) for any other color hat. A quick Google search shows him mostly in a light brown cowboy hat. If he ditches the cowboy hat for a ballcap, those tend to be black in these pictures. I suspect he won’t ditch the cowboy hat though.
Another one tied to the National Anthem is the player to be shown first during the anthem, Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts. The smart money is on Mahomes no matter the odds.
Lastly, here’s a fun one involving the anthem. Will any words be omitted from the song? Coolbet has “Yes” at +1000 and “No” at -3030. You think Chris Stapleton will get tongue-tied?
Octopus:
No, not the 8-legged sea creature that periodically makes appearances at NHL games. In football, an octopus occurs when a player scores a TD and then the same player scores the 2-point conversion. He accounts for 8 points, hence the name.
An octopus has occurred just 175 times since 1994 but get this, two of those occurrences were done by Jaylen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. This past season!
Despite that, DK has the odds at +1400 (Yes) and -10000 (No).
Halftime Show:
Rihanna will be performing during the halftime show. One of the major props is trying to guess her first song. She has a long list of songs to choose from and I’ll never be confused with a Rihanna superfan so sorry folks, I can’t help you here.
You’ll also find props for her last song, hair color, how many songs she will perform, who makes an appearance on stage with her, color of clothing, etc. If I’m not driving home during halftime (see above), I’ll be stuffing my face with something hot (wings) and wet (barley and hops). So, I’d best just pass on all these props. Fortunately for me, the online books apparently don’t carry halftime props so I won’t miss much.
Gatorade Color:
Another fun prop is the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach. Common colors include Orange, Yellow/Green, Blue, Red/Pink, Clear/Water, and Purple.
FanDuel appears to be favoring the Eagles and thus Yellow/Green Gatorade (+170). Note, Doug Pederson was doused with this color Gatorade after the Eagles last won the Super Bowl. Andy Reid was soaked in Orange Gatorade after the Chiefs win in Super Bowl LIV.
DK and BetMGM, for instance, are more consistent with their odds, ranging from +300 to +500 across all colors, except Purple (+750 to +900).
While Orange is historically the most popular choice, it’s worth noting that the winning coach has been doused in Blue in two straight Super Bowls, and three of the past four.
Will a Kick Hit the Upright or Crossbar?
Kickers have had a tough season (Sorry, Brett Maher). So naturally, there’s a prop bet for a kick hitting the upright or crossbar. DK has odds (+450) for “Yes” and (-650) for “No” on this one. Logically we’d say “No” but the opposite just feels like a winner for me. I think I’ll take the plus odds here.
There you have it, some of my favorite (and not so favorite) Super Bowl prop bets. Tune in Friday night when Sky (@SkyGuasco) and I talk about these and other props on the Razzball fantasy football show.
Also, before I sign off here, I want to thank all our followers who read our articles and participate in our live shows. The Sunday Start/Sit show is a lot of fun, and I can’t wait to pick those back up in the Fall. In the meantime, stay tuned to the Razzball football pages for continuous contributions from our cast of characters all offseason.
Until next time…
