Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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I used to put my trusty Coleman tent to work every summer. A group of college friends and I would gather for a long weekend of debauchery and mosquito bites. Eventually, after enough blood loss, we outgrew the authentic camping experience and upgraded to cabin glamping. Also, our old campsite not-so-politely asked us to never come back. Regardless, my Coleman tent hasn’t seen any use in recent years. That is, until yesterday, when Tevin Coleman helped me pitch a tent as he obliterated the Panthers defense with 11 carries for 105 yards, 2 catches for 13 yards and 4 touchdowns! Who do I call if my tent has been erect for over 24 hours? Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football: 

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You have to love when two guys have career days and the starting percentages are probably pretty low on them. I say pretty low because I’m sure there were people in bad bye week spots or in deeper leagues that had to start Chase Edmonds or Marvin Jones Jr. Marvin Jones is a solid WR3 for fantasy but I don’t think that many were elated about slotting him in against the Vikings. For those that were savvy enough to start Jones Jr., he rewarded them with 10 catches, 93 yards and 4 touchdowns. That is a best ball format wet dream. In the leagues that I own Jones Jr., I can’t see myself leaving him on the bench again against the Giants next week. 

Chase Edmonds was a different type of situation. David Johnson was named active going into the game and he took one carry for 2 yards and didn’t touch the ball again for the rest of the game. I’m guessing that the majority of people that heard Johnson was active took Edmonds out of their lineup. Well, Edmonds carried the ball 27 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Incredible. Let’s get to some other performances from the early slate on Sunday.

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It was Aaron Rodgers‘ agent—Gabe, not that nice State Farm guy—who contacted the referees Monday morning with his very indecent proposal. “Illegal hands to the face,” Gabe whispered, “and be sure to delete those emails!” Trey Flowers and the Lions were the innocent victims of this elaborate conspiracy, with Flowers erroneously flagged twice in the 4th quarter as the officials gifted the game to the Packers. Final score: Lions 22 – Packers 13 – Refs 10. Anyway, here’s what else I saw Monday night in fantasy football: 

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Let’s all collectively go outside and scream at the top of our lungs. There was so much bad play-calling, stupid penalties, bad play-calling, bad fantasy beats, bad play-calling, and brutal injuries that happened last night. I was given hope when Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers down the field in the two-minute drill and hit a wide open Geronimo Allison in the end zone. Then the Packers get the ball first after half time and run the ball on the first two plays with all of the momentum on their side and end up punting. The Eagles score again and when the Packers get the ball back, THEY RUN ON FIRST DOWN AGAIN.

Our writer Pat called it perfectly when he mentioned to some of the other writers that he thought that the Packers were a better team, but he was nervous about a brand new coach coming up with a solid game plan on a 4-day turnaround. In the 4th quarter, the Packers had the ball on first and goal at the 1 yard line and Rodgers threw 4 straight incompletions. That would have actually been a good time to run the ball considering how well Aaron Jones has ran the ball in goal line situations so far this season. For what it’s worth, this was easily the best Thursday night game we’ve had so far this year. Everything from play on the field to atmosphere was what we’ve come to expect when we sit down to watch an NFL football game. Now let’s go over some fantasy impact from week 4 TNF.

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I thought in this week’s lede I would further detail my general process for breaking down NFL games. There are a million different approaches, but to be successful everyone needs to find a method and refine it constantly. My process for breaking down games starts with taking the entire slate and checking the injury report prior to moving to line of scrimmage. This is where significant edges are found even in today’s game. I check pressure rates, adjusted line yard data, and articles pertaining to the big guys to find if there is a significant advantage terms of pass rush, or the ability to run the football. If there is an advantage at the line of scrimmage positively, we must ensure we are working in a game environment in which the coach that has the advantage will take the edge. Alternatively, if the edge is a negative, is the quarterback/coach intelligent and talented enough to beat it? The final step is to compare the current secondary using success rates, target rates, yards allowed per target, etc. versus the talent and scheme in the passing game. That information is again tied back to if the coach and quarterback are talented enough to take advantage. Essentially, what I provide to you are the most important notes found in breaking down the individual games and looking at players statistics for the entire seasons. Here are those edges for week 4.

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Matt Williams is back with a new Daily Blitz Podcast, recapping Week 3 in fantasy football. He is joined by Nick Faber and Scott Michaud as they go game by game to discuss everything you need to know going forward.

Players discussed: Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, Stefon Diggs, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Corey Davis, Duke Johnson, Sterling Shepard, Preston Williams, and more.

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