Round Two of the playoffs are HERE! Congratulations to all of you out there who are still alive. For most of us, we’re a few days away from the ultimate goal – playing for a Championship. Making the right call is more important than ever and the RazzballNFL crew are here to help. Head over to football.razzball.com to see all our takes for Week 16. For me, I’m here to help with the most important position on your fantasy roster – the QB position. Let’s get it done!
Here are my QB STARTS and SITS for Week 16.
Don’t forget to check out all our free tools to help with your playoff decisions. Check them out here (again, all for free at football.razzball.com. You can’t afford not to!
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool
- Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
QB STARTS
- Player: Baker Mayfield
- Game: @ Dallas Cowboys
Baker is one of my top QB recommendations this week. He and Mike Evans are locked in, as illustrated by Evans’ 26- and 37-point games in two of the last three. The Dallas defense is ranked 28th in QB, and 19th in WR, scoring against. As our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows, Mayfield is actually better on the road. That’s right, our tool shows his index is 95 – meaning he’s 5% better on the road. Just last week, Baker put up 288 and 4 TDs in a road game against the Chargers…and the Cowboys defense is not the Chargers. If that wasn’t enough, just look at the lines. The Bucs are four-point favorites (AT DALLAS) in the highest over/under game of the week. Even the odds-makers are high on Baker this week.
- Player: Aaron Rodgers
- Game: vs Los Angeles Rams
I really can’t believe I’m about to right these words but here goes…Aaron Rodgers has actually been pretty good lately. Over his last four games, he’s thrown for 2+ TDs in three of four. In that fourth game, he threw for 339 yards and 1 TD. If recency-bias is your game, he’s been a top 12 QB over the last two. The Rams now come to town and although they are playing well overall, their defense is ranked only 24th vs QB, allowing 20 fantasy points per game. Can Rodgers keep this trend up? I like the odds.
- Player: Aidan O’Connell
- Game: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
After missing the last game, and three of the last five, Aidan O’Connell put in a full practice this week and projected to return to the Raiders lineup. Desmond Ridder was less than stellar in his brief spot start last week, throwing for 208 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. For their part, the lowly Jaguars continue to allow the most fantasy QB points per game in the league, including averaging over 275 yards and 2 TDs per contest. O’Connell’s return will provide a much-needed boost to owners of both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. He’ll make a great DFS play as well…if you’re into that!
QB SITS
- Player: Patrick Mahomes
- Game: vs Houston Texans
Patrick Mahomes might just actually be Superman. After suffering a high-ankle sprain last week, an injury normally sidelining players for a couple weeks at minimum, Mahomes is not listed on the injury report for the Saturday tilt against Houston. Mahomes practiced in full all week. The news that Hollywood Brown is also scheduled to make his return this week may have you salivating here. I’m here to tell you “NOT SO FAST” on that one. The Texans defense is ranked #1 in limiting QB completion percentage, #2 in passing yards per attempt, #2 in interceptions, #2 in sacks, and top five in limiting offensive yards. With a Christmas day game looming, the Chiefs should probably rest their franchise QB. That’s good advice for your fantasy team as well.
- Player: Kyler Murray
- Game: vs New England Patriots
Last week, I stated this regarding Kyler Murray, “It may not always look pretty, but Kyler Murray has generally delivered for his fantasy owners the past few weeks.” Well, I hit the mark on the point about not looking pretty, but last week’s win over the Patriots was not a statistically good one for the QB. He was relatively efficient at 23-30, but only threw for 224 yards and no TDs or INTs. Also, he only contributed 11 yards on the ground. That is not good enough for us in the playoffs. This week, the Cardinals travel to Carolina against a defense much more vulnerable to the run than the pass. The Panthers continue to be the worst defense against the run, giving up over 24 fantasy points per game. Their passing defense has been a little more respectable, including limiting Jalen Hurts to 108 passing yards in Week 14 and Baker Mayfield to 235 passing yards in Week 13.
- Player: Matthew Stafford
- Games: @ New York Jets
Just a month or so ago, many of us considered Matthew Stafford a fantasy league winner. Lately though, it’s been more of a Jekyll-and-Hyde ride. He looked great at home in Week 14 versus Buffalo (320 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) but anything but great last week at San Francisco (160 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs). What will the road tilt versus the Jets bring? The data suggests the latter. The Jets defense is just outside the top third in the league in allowing QB fantasy points and 5th best in limiting passing yards (214 yards). Our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows Stafford is neutral but looking at his results lately shows a bias against road games, including 9.8 fantasy points at San Francisco last week and 17.5 fantasy points at New Orleans in Week 13 – his bottom two performances since Veteran’s Day. It’s best to just stay away on this one.
That’s All Folks
Best of luck throughout the playoffs, but most importantly, this week! The Razzball crew and I will be here the whole way to help you win that coveted Championship. If you have any last-minute roster decisions, be sure to join the Razzball boys each week for our live Sunday show starting at 11:00 am EST. We can help you in real time there! Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
One last piece of business…a reminder that all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X: @Derek_Favret and BlueSky: @dfavret.bsky.social.
Until next time, my friends!
