When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
  3. When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.

Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)

WR Age Points PPG
21 177.7 11.3
22 182.9 12
23 183.5 12
24 174.5 11.3
25 191.3 12.2
26 205.5 13.3
27 185.3 12
28 191 12.6
29 194.1 12.6
30 177.6 11.5
31 182.5 11.6
32 171.4 11.6
33 179.4 11.5
34 183.2 11.6
35 154.4 10.1
36 131.9 8.5
37 144.9 10.4

 

As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.

Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.

Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The fantasy regular season is in the books and I already laid out rankings for the playoffs. So what else is there to do but look ahead into the crystal ball and see what 2021 could have in store. As always, this is not format specific but a general ranking based simply on who I’d rather see on my roster in 2021. I am happy to talk specifics in the comments, as the note section is not meant to be a thesis explaining the position of each ranking. 

I have included some choice rookies for 2021, although in all likelihood there will be more that make their way into the top 80 by season’s end. This year there are currently 5 rookies in the top 50 WR in fantasy points per game. With offenses using more 3 and 4 wide formations, rookies can get on the field early and often. Earning snaps is the biggest hurdle for most rookies but that is not as hard as it used to be when only 2 WRs were featured. Rookie receivers should continue to be assets even in redraft leagues, so I have been generous in my rankings with 2 rookies already in the top 36. 

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

And without further ado… 

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Your WR top 80 14.0 is here!  This is a playoff specific edition of the WR ranks, with extra weight given to the next 3 matchups specifically. Nothing matters but the path ahead so a few players jumped up because of their schedule. Additionally guys who are currently injured might as well be off the list, although some are straggling around like Kenny Golladay, but there is no guarantee he’ll suit up for our fantasy teams.  

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Your WR top 80 13.0 is here!  Even though week 12 hasn’t ended yet, we’re on to the final countdown. If you’re 7-5 or better you can probably coast but a playoff seed may be on the line. If you’re rolling at 6-6 or in some leagues maybe even 5-7 this is do or die. Obviously “rest of season” doesn’t really mean much with one game left in the regular season but this is still a relative ranking of the best WRs in our game. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback. 

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Your WR top 80 13.0 is here!  As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback. 

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you’re only into ground and pound games then read no further. There were a total of 79 rushing yards between both the Rams and Bucs on Monday night. There was even less runs than the time I stopped eating Chipotle for an entire year. But what this game lacked in rushing was made up for in the passing department as the teams combine for a total of 99 passing attempts. The Rams’ air attack ended up being the headline as Jared Goff went 39/51 for 376 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Cooper Kupp hauled in 11 of those passes for 145 yards, while Robert Woods snatched another 12 of them for 130 yards and his 7th touchdown. Both of these pass catchers are rock solid WR2 options, and Goff remains a nice streamer with a friendly playoff schedule on the horizon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Your WR top 80 12.0 is here! Despite DeAndre Hopkins’ heroics, Davante Adams remains in a tier all his own. Don’t worry, there are still plenty of fantastic options to choose from in tier 2. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback. 

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to talk about the events of week 10. What a weekend with the grossest week of football so far this season and a new Masters record. 

The podcast starts with the Drew Brees injury and what each of us thinks it could mean for the Saints offensive weapons. We discuss the possible fallout of the Stafford and Bridgewater injuries. 

With the rise of D’Andre Swift, we take a look at rookie RB rankings from this point forward. The guys can’t seem to agree on a specific order, but hash it out. The two then talk about some confusing backfields in the Browns, Rams, Bucs, and Colts, and how we are approaching them over the ROS. 

As we move to WRs, B_Don asks DT if he trusts Marquez Valdes-Scantling after 2 strong showings, even with Allen Lazard likely to return to the mix. As with the RBs, the guys discuss a few complicated situations in the Eagles, Bucs, and Steelers. And of course, we finish with the A**hole of the week. 

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What a weekend! Masters Sunday in November due to pandemic scheduling. College football hanging on by a thread with virus outbreaks and cancelled games. But the NFL? No worries, mon. It was a light news cycle this week with lots of wind and weather, but one man had the gall to go off.  Wayne Gallman toted 18 carries for 53 yards, caught 1 pass for 7 yards and hit pay dirt for his 4th and 5th touchdowns. Wayne Enterprises’ stock spiked this past week when Devonta Freeman (hamstring) was placed on the IR. Somehow Gallman’s only owned in 50% of Yahoo leagues. Most of those leagues are probably abandoned but make sure yours isn’t one of them. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: D.J. Chark

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

 

D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage

Opponent

Games

Rec

Yards

TDs

PPG

All Other Opponents

18

4.9

66.8

0.6

12.8

Vs. Shadow Coverage

3

3.7

32.3

0.0

5.1

Vs. Houston Texans

3

4.7

34.3

0.3

7.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It has been a tough go of it for D.J. Chark when he has faced shadow coverage in his young career only averaging 5.1 PPG. This includes a matchup earlier this season vs. Bradley Roby where he only secured 3 receptions for 16 yards. This production came on a day when Gardner Minshew threw for 301 yards and 2 scores. Dating back to last season Chark has yet to get over 50 yards or score in a game when he faces shadow coverage.

Please, blog, may I have some more?