So you’ve made it to the penultimate checkpoint before glory. Set up camp, rest your joints and have a good night’s sleep. Things only get more difficult from here. The rations are all used up, we’re all running on pocket lint and snow, and no one feels bad for your FLEX options. It’s the playoffs, kill or be killed, there is no tomorrow, survive and advance and all that.

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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We all remember the greatest passing tandems in the history of the NFL: Montana to Rice, Manning to Harrison, and AB to his doctor’s face. But make room legends, there’s a new connection in town: Lock to Sutton. It was a solid debut for the Broncos’ 2nd round pick out of Mizzou, as Drew Lock went 18/28 for 134 yards, adding 3 carries for 15 yards and throwing his first two career touchdown passes. But the real story was that both touchdowns were thrown to second year breakout Courtland Sutton who finished the game with 4 catches for 75 yards and now has 6 touchdowns on the season. Could the the 3rd time be the charm for John Elway drafted QBs? Brock Osweiler (2012 2nd rounder) and Paxton Lynch (2016 1st rounder) were worse investments than the Razzball coin I bought off Grey last year. Maybe, just maybe, this Lock/Sutton hook up could be something special for years to come. Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday afternoon’s games for fantasy football:    

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Thanksgiving week is almost upon us and a nice division battle between two playoff contenders was sure to heat up enough to start thawing out those turkeys. The Colts came limping into Houston with their extensive injury report to take on the Houston Texans who were coming off a complete thrashing that was provided by Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.

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This will be the second installment of Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I used to put my trusty Coleman tent to work every summer. A group of college friends and I would gather for a long weekend of debauchery and mosquito bites. Eventually, after enough blood loss, we outgrew the authentic camping experience and upgraded to cabin glamping. Also, our old campsite not-so-politely asked us to never come back. Regardless, my Coleman tent hasn’t seen any use in recent years. That is, until yesterday, when Tevin Coleman helped me pitch a tent as he obliterated the Panthers defense with 11 carries for 105 yards, 2 catches for 13 yards and 4 touchdowns! Who do I call if my tent has been erect for over 24 hours? Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football: 

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A clash between two AFC teams that enter week 8 with highest projected point total, thanks to the reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes sidelined while he recovers from a knee injury.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Derek Carr has the 11th highest passer rating and NFL best completion percentage (74.1). On paper, this is an interesting matchup for Carr who is: facing a defense that has allowed the 4th most receiving yards per game, just placed DB Phillip Gaines on IR, are without DB Bradley Roby until after their bye week, have DB Tashaun Gibson questionable, and are 6.5 point road dogs. BUT Carr ranks 9th in fewest pass attempts per game, has the 8th fewest passes over 20 yards, lacks elite receiving weapons outside of his TE and has a head coach who is enamored with running the ball. Carr is best viewed as a 2-QB league starter and desperation spot fill in 1-qb leagues. Rudy projects Carr as QB21 in week 8.

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You have to love when two guys have career days and the starting percentages are probably pretty low on them. I say pretty low because I’m sure there were people in bad bye week spots or in deeper leagues that had to start Chase Edmonds or Marvin Jones Jr. Marvin Jones is a solid WR3 for fantasy but I don’t think that many were elated about slotting him in against the Vikings. For those that were savvy enough to start Jones Jr., he rewarded them with 10 catches, 93 yards and 4 touchdowns. That is a best ball format wet dream. In the leagues that I own Jones Jr., I can’t see myself leaving him on the bench again against the Giants next week. 

Chase Edmonds was a different type of situation. David Johnson was named active going into the game and he took one carry for 2 yards and didn’t touch the ball again for the rest of the game. I’m guessing that the majority of people that heard Johnson was active took Edmonds out of their lineup. Well, Edmonds carried the ball 27 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Incredible. Let’s get to some other performances from the early slate on Sunday.

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The so-called “toilet bowl” was… actually pretty exciting.

The fashion in which the Dolphins lost to the Redskins last week was absolutely hilarious. The poor guys played their hearts out in what may have been their lone realistic shot to win a game all season long and actually put themselves in a position to come from behind and tie up the game.

And then they came literally nowhere close to converting the game-winning opportunity as opposed to forcing OT. Oh well. Such is life for a Miami Dolphin. Why they’re continuing to roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick is an entirely different discussion.

The other thing that came out of this game was a fantastic performance from Terry McLaurin, a name featured in a good amount of winning daily fantasy lineups despite his questionable availability heading into the game. Hopefully, we’ll be able to find the Scary Terry’s of Week 7 in this week’s DFS Guide.

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We’re getting to the part of the season where the teams that started hot make way for new teams to start to get hot. The Kansas City Chiefs looked unbeatable until they showed a chink in their armor in Detroit, and the Texans looked pretty pedestrian until recently. The Texans were a popular upset pick for Sunday, but it’s still surprising to see them come back from an early 14 point deficit when it looked like the Chiefs were going to roll right over them. 

The Vikings passing game has looked lethargic so far this season with a lot of the blame being placed on Kirk Cousins when really Kevin Stefanski and Mike Zimmer deserve a lot of the heat. Stefon Diggs, who is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, was left for dead by this Vikings offense. Until Sunday when he went off for 3 touchdowns. Things in this league can shift at any time. 

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