Week 11 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

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This week, I narrowed my focus a bit.

Over time, I’ve tended to use several sources of rankings/projections. As time goes on, however, I find the democratic approach counterproductive as once we get down the rankings to my range, the divergences between rankings can’t be ignored.

Going forward, I will use one source of projections: RazzballNFL. In Rudy Gamble we trust. I have to go with the brand.

In Week 11, Arizona, Carolina, the New York Giants, and Tampa Bay all have the week off. Then the two largest bye weeks, 12 and 14, sandwich a full slate in Week 13: in Week 12, we’ll be missing Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the New York Jets. Plan accordingly.

Interestingly, I find this to be a great opportunity to participate in the trade market, both in redraft and in Dynasty. That’s another subject.

For the numbers below for Win/Loss and Home/Road: a positive number means a player scores more in wins for Win/Loss and more at home for Home/Road; a negative number means a player scores more in losses for Win/Loss and more on the road for Home/Road. The index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by PPR points scored in losses for Win/Loss and of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more in wins (W/L) or at home (H/R), and less than 100 means the player scores more in losses (W/L) or on the road (H/R).

Let’s look at some players for Week 11 for WR 3 and flex spots.

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STARTS

Player: Terry McLaurin

Team: Washington Commanders

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 29

Spread: +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles

Win/Loss: +1.9, W/L Index 115

Home/Road: -3.2, H/R Index 78

This depends somewhat on the Philadelphia Eagles tonight: if we get the fired-up group that showed up in Dallas, Cincinnati, and New Orleans this pick could crash and burn. After starting out somewhat slowly, the Eagles have now allowed the fewest PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last six weeks. They are exceptionally tough on slot receivers.

Terry plays out wide, and the Eagles are tough there as well: Quinyon Mitchell lines up on the side Terry plays most of his snaps.

This will be a little of an irresistible force (the Commanders are tied for 3^rd in points scored per game) vs. an immovable object (the Eagles are tied for 5^th in points allowed per game). This game has a 48.5 over/under so the books expect a higher-scoring game.

The indices are slightly contradictory with the H/R Index being more favorable. RazzBallNFL has McLaurin getting 11.78 points. In the last six games, McLaurin has had 100 yards or two touchdowns in five of them and 98 yards in the sixth. He’ll be in my lineups where I have him.

Player: DeAndre Hopkins

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 40

Spread: +2.0 at Buffalo Bills

Win-Loss: +5.6, W/L Index 159

Home/Road: +1.9, H/R Index 118

The indices disagree with me, although most of the data comes from Hopkins’ time with the Titans. In the last two games, Hopkins has played the most snaps he’s played in 2024.

If there are two teams that tend to bring out the best in each other, it’s the Chiefs and the Bills: their last four games have been decided by 6 points or fewer and they’ve split 2-2 despite three of the games being in Kansas City.

At 45.5, the over/under for this game seems low, but both defenses are solid and these teams know each other well. Buffalo allows the 9^th-most PPR PPG to wide receivers and 59% to wideouts. Hopkins lines up wide roughly 65% of the time.

Hopkins has 12 receptions on 14 targets for 142 yards and 2 TDs in the last two games. I’m willing to flex Hopkins betting he exceeds the 9.92 PPR points our rankings project.

Player: Cedric Tillman

Team: Cleveland Browns

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 41

Spread: +1.0 at New Orleans Saints

Win-Loss: -0.3, W/L Index 94

Home/Road: +4.2, H/R Index 271

W/L is pretty much neutral for Tillman, and H/R is off the charts, but I point out that Tillman’s three blow-up games right before the Browns’ Week 10 bye were all in Cleveland.

The Saints rallied the troops, shocked the Falcons, and held Kirk Cousins without a touchdown pass in Week 10. They’ve been a slot-funnel team over the last six weeks, but they gave up 32.3 combined PPR points to Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Very little is absolute.

This is not projected to be a shootout, but the Saints give up the 4^th-most passing yards per game. Since Jameis became the starter, Cleveland has averaged 74 offensive plays and the Saints have faced 60+ snaps in all games since Week 6 except vs. Carolina.

I’m rolling with both Jameis Winston and his favorite target (32 targets, 21 receptions, 255 yards, 3 TDs in the three games heading into the bye) in Week 11. I think Tillman beats the RazzballNFL projection of 9.89 PPR points.

 

 

SITS

 Player: Najee Harris

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 21

Spread: +3.0 vs Baltimore Ravens

Win/Loss: +6.6, W/L Index 183

Home/Road: -0.8, H/R Index 93

 I believe that Harris at RB 21 encapsulates the limitations of the running back position in fantasy. Not only has Harris been ceding snaps to Jaylen Warren, but Cordarrelle Patterson came back Sunday. Harris got 21 of 43 carries for the Steelers in Week 10 – in nine games he’s gotten a little over 50% of the carries and the Steelers average about 34.5 carries per game. And he’s not very involved in the passing game, averaging fewer than 2 receptions per game. He’s RB 28 in PPR PPG.

This matchup in particular presents challenges: the Ravens allow the fewest rushing yards per game at 73.0. They have allowed 7 rushing TDs in 10 games, so there is a chance Harris can cash one.

Absent that, I think his 12.5 PPR point projection is out of reach. It’s possible Harris is a regular flex or even an RB 2 for us, but I’d try to sit him this week. Both W/L and H/R lean toward a fade.

Player: DJ Moore

Team: Chicago Bears

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 28

Spread: +6.0 vs Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: +7.8, W/L Index 168

Home/Road: -0.6, H/R Index 96

 I drafted many shares of DJ Moore. Not pleasing. In PPR PPG, D.J. Moore is WR 41 for the 2024 season.

He’s sadly tied with Tyreek Hill. That’s another story.

Moore has not had double-digit PPR points since Week 5. H/R is fairly neutral, but W/L says he’s much better in wins. The Bears are not favored. The Packers are 11^th best vs. wide receivers in fantasy and allow the 2^nd fewest points to wideouts.

It’s possible Shane Waldron was the problem with the Bears offense. If I can afford to, I’ll wait a week to find out. I think our projection of 11.90 PPR points is high.

Player: Brian Thomas Jr

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 31

Spread: +13.5 at Detroit Lions

Win/Loss: +10.9, W/L Index 202

Home/Road: +3.3, H/R Index 129

 I love Brian Thomas Jr. I think he’s got the makings of a star NFL wide receiver. And big spreads make me twitchy: I always want to bet on the underdog. I would like the narrative of the Lions overlooking this game if they had a rivalry game in Week 12, but alas, the Colts are the opponents.

Thomas has only had 11 targets, 7 receptions, 104 yards, and 1 TD in the last three games combined. He just put up 3.2 PPR points in a plus matchup in Week 10.

The Jags had a nice defensive effort against the Vikings Sunday, but the Lions are winning games that they had a chance to lose. They look focused. They tend to funnel to the slot and Thomas only lines up there 19% of the time, but he does score 43% of his points from the slot. So, a little hope.

I’d favor Thomas more if Trevor Lawrence had not already been ruled out for the game, but with Mac Jones under center, I can’t see 11.62 projected PPR points for Thomas. He’s not an easy sit, but there are guys in this range I like better.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 11!