[cue tympani drums followed by John Williams-style brass] Ta dah! It’s the 2022 RazzBowl! This year, we’ve got more Razz than ever, mostly because I’ve been eating nothing but lasagna since we last talked. What have I learned in the past eight months, other than how to order my pants size in “Extra Grande”? Glad you asked! Time for me to enlighten, illuminate, and thrill you to tears with my annual RazzBowl Guidebook! 

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Every year roughly ¼ of NFL teams see a change in their coaching staffs. These changes to a new scheme could help or hurt certain players based on various concepts. For example, some play-callers are more pass-heavy while others might utilize more concepts like play-action.

In this series, we will review all the new play-callers (PC)/offensive coordinators (OC)to see where their styles differentiate from the previous season’s outputs. This article will dive into pass volume to see which teams should see the biggest potential swing in this category based on their new PC/OC. The below chart outlines the teams that will have a new PC/OC in 2022. Please note, that some teams were left off this list as they hired within or the new OC doesn’t call plays.  

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With one simple line of prediction, all the weeks of Air Yards analysis went down the crapper. Here it is, from the Week 16 Air Yards report:

“Antonio Brown might make the short list of 2021 playoff heroes after this week is over.”

Yikes. As one commenter pointed out, “that prediction did not wear well.” Brown also did not wear his jersey well, dropping it on the ground, and giving a farewell tour around the stadium just after halftime. At that point, his opportunity to help your fantasy team or his real life football team in the playoffs disappeared faster than the cannon smoke from Raymond James Stadium.

But Air Yards, like many other advanced stats, tells us what could (or perhaps should) happen given similar circumstances over time. Brown smashed in Week 16 with no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Given similar circumstances plus playing-time incentives in Week 17, we had every reason to believe Brown would manhandle the Jets. It was the process and in the process we trust. 

Until a potential mid-game retirement variable is introduced in to the Air Yards model, we will just have to rely on the data we have. What can 2021 air yards teach us for 2022? Let’s find out. 

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 15. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 15, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 75 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

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After Jonathan Taylor made me do the TD stutter last week, I get to do another 4 T-Banger for Leonard Fournette. Let’s do a montage! [cue wavy lines and St. Elmo’s Fire starts playing] Last year, Leonard Fournette was going to be the RB1 on the Jacksonville Jaguars, and right before the regular season, the Jags dumped him for…nothing. The guy who had been the face of the team in 2019…and being the face of the Jags isn’t saying much…but the guy who was the offense for the lackluster 2019 Jags was without a job in 2020. He got picked up by the Tampa Bay Buccanneers, a team that was lush with running backs. Like, you couldn’t wave a covid stick in that training room without hitting Ronald Jones, LeSean McCoy, or Dare Ogunbowale. Lenny jumped in with the team, took some time to buy into the system, and by the 2020 Super Bowl run, he had found his footing. Fast forward to 2021 [record scratch] — Lenny’s stepping in when The Goat doesn’t have his A-Game. Tom Brady was merely mortal this week with 226 yards in the air, while Lenny went for 100 on the ground and 3 TDs and another 7 catches for 31 yards and a TD. Not bad for a guy that was taken as your RB2 or FLEX in draft season this year, right? 

Let’s see who else made the news for Week 12 Fantasy Football: 

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Sometimes you must know when to say goodbye. Sometimes we hold on for too long to something or someone who needs to go. Being in our lives gives us a sense of hope however false it may be. Whether you are bidding adieu to a reunited love on a tarmac, releasing your best friend back into the wild where they belong, or cutting Curtis Samuel about eight weeks later than most other fantasy managers: sometimes it is best to set them free. The playoffs are not far off and now is the time to start shaping those rosters for the tough journey ahead.

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It’s hard to believe that 2 months ago, Donkey Teeth was sleeping in a dumpster outside of Krispy Kreme and burning expired donuts for heat. One day, his muscle shirt got singed by the flame of a glazed gone wrong. The scorch marks on his only shirt formed the shape of a running back, and that scorch mark turned into a prophecy. Donkey Teeth placed two bear claws on his hands and found the nearest internet-equipped machine where he typed, “Jonathan Taylor RB1” to all the people who would listen. Now that November has arrived and Donkey Teeth has upgraded his abode to a camper that he parks in a Taco Bell parking lot, it seems like people are finally understanding the meaning of Donk. Let’s see what other news we can dig up from the Sunday slate: 

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*This Buy, Sell, Hold video was released by Anime Donkey prior to week 9 action but his recommendations still apply for week 10*

The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 10. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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Taking inventory of target share (TS) and snap share (SS) data is a critical tool to help with start-sit decisions, and provide a framework for buy-low/sell-high trade candidates. Every Wednesday the Target Report will highlight key TS/SS data and takeaways from the weekend. Keep in mind this is one data point to reference when making weekly lineup decisions. Utilizing all of Razzball’s tools will help complete the decisions making process each week. 

Success in fantasy football is built around opportunity, especially consistent opportunity. Don’t get caught up only chasing fantasy points. Peyton Manning focused more on what happened between endzones versus what transpired on the scoreboard. It is important not to overreact to a poor fantasy outing when the usage is still there. Or overreact to a fantasy explosion for a player that barely found the field or was barely targeted in the game. Trust the data and trust the process…

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