The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 16

December 26, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football |

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish	Total
1	22
2	12
3	11
4+	29
Grand Total	74

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Marquise Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

Marquise Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	25	3.4	48	0.5	9.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage	3	4.3	3.7	0	4.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Marquise Brown hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in 2020 only getting the followed once back in week 2 by Bradley Roby. In that game Brown caught 5 receptions for 42 yards with no scores. In three career games in shadow coverage Brown has yet to top 50 yards in any game. This has led to his career PPG to be just under 5 in .5 PPR.

Week 16 Recommendation – Sit

This week Marquise Brown will square off vs. Giants top CB James Bradberry. Bradberry so far in 2020 has faced 8 WRs in shadow coverage holding them to a combined 8.4 PPG in .5 PPR. This includes holding D.K. Metcalf (5-80), Amari Cooper (2-23) and Allen Robinson (3-33) well below their season averages in 2020. Granted Brown is coming off four straight productive games but this matchup vs. James Bradberry makes him a fade in week 16.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,200 / DK $5,700

Marquise Brown is listed as a top 24 WR on each site making him a DFS fade for week 16. Notable players in the same price range I would pivot to include Jarvis Landry vs. NYJ and Cole Beasley vs. NE.

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	30	5.7	76.1	0.5	13.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage	15	4.4	57.5	0.4	10.3
vs. Darius Slay	1	3	38	0	5.3

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 12

by: Bobby LaMarco

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish	Total
1	15
2	8
3	8
4+	25
Grand Total	56

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New England

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

WR2: Christian Kirk

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

J.C. Jackson

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	27	7.4	96.3	0.4	16
Vs. Shadow Coverage	17	6.5	76.2	0.6	14.4
vs. Stephon Gilmore	3	6.7	72.7	0	10.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

According to PFF this season DeAndre Hopkins has yet to face any shadow coverage in 2020. This comes after back to back seasons where he saw shadow coverage in 50% of his games. This “softer” cornerback schedule has led to a solid season so far in 2020 as Hopkins is the WR7 in PPG. Overall, throughout his career Hopkins has been solid vs. shadow coverage as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers.

As for Christian Kirk he has never seen shadow coverage in his career, but that doesn’t stop the Patriots from using shadow coverage on multiple players. In weeks 9 and 11 of 2020 the Patriots used multiple CBs to shadow the opposing teams WRs and in 2019 used Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in similar roles down the stretch.

Week 12 Recommendation DeAndre Hopkins – WR3/Flex

Christian Kirk – SIT

Hopkins’ 10.6 vs. Stephon Gilmore doesn’t make him a sit, but tempering expectations on the road vs. the Patriots isn’t a bad idea. Hopkins has yet to score a TD or top 80 yards receiving in any of the games vs. Gilmore since he joined the Patriots back in 2017. These numbers leave Hopkins as solid WR2/flex in week 12.

As for Christian Kirk J.C. Jackson has been playing at a very high level slowing down a white-hot Will Fuller (6-80) while leading the NFL in interceptions so far in 2020. This season the Patriots have yet to allow a team to have multiple WRs hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR at home in 2020.

DFS Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,100

Christian Kirk Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,800

Hopkins vs. Gilmore doesn’t equal DFS success as his 10 PPG will not justify his cost on both sites. At this price point you can pay up for Tyreek Hill in a game which should be a shootout in TB. As for Christian Kirk his price point on both sites is between WR 24-30, and with not a lot of WR success overall when the Patriots play at home its best to pivot. Players I would use over Kirk include DeVante Parker vs. NYJ and Curtis Samuel vs. MIN.

Please, blog, may I have some more?