My sincere apologies to all twelve of my readers for my lackluster effort in last week’s injury report article, where I clearly had no idea what I was doing. An eagle-eyed reader on Reddit pointed to my deficiencies, which were many, and indicated that he — I assume it was a he because he liked to participate in the Tinder subreddit — regretted giving us a click. 

Razzball execs spent the past week discussing how we would manage without that 1/132nd of a cent of ad revenue that we would no longer receive. However, the “Blair has no clue” Zoom meeting ended early when FantasyPros returned their weekly ranks. Guess who topped the running back rankings in week 2? Oh, look, it me. 

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What’s up, everybody!? Welcome to your first installment of the fantasy football weekly injury report for 2022. Just so we’re copacetic, let’s establish our norms and understand what an injury report is all about: 

1) I’m Not Adam Schefter: Sure, I have a personality that’s absolutely made for the internet, but I am not a full-time employee of the NFL or journalistic institution whose job it is to report up-to-the-minute injury status. I hear the mass exodus of readers clicking away right now. But wait! Hang around for a hot minute. All I’m saying: this article is written on Friday night for Saturday morning publication, and the NFL plays games Sundays at noon. If you want up-to-the-minute injury reports, please access those writers who get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year to star on ESPN and have locker room access and a rolodex of professional secret leakers.

2) I Am EverywhereBlair: This means you’re getting pretty good fantasy football advice based on injury reports. Is your star injured? I’ll tell you an alternate play. Don’t like that alternate play? Who am I, Tennessee Williams? 

3) NFL Teams Lie: Some teams purposefully obscure their injury reports. Is a player actually injured, or is the team just messing with their opponent’s preparation? For this fantasy football injury report, I’m assuming all NFL injury reports are truthful. 

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Every year we get burned by fantasy football players we expect to produce for us at a high level. Whether it be from injury, COVID list inactives, suspensions, or simply underperforming and losing playing time, it’s important we review each season from a bird’s eye view in addition to our granular approach. Some players just […]

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The position that has undergone the most upheaval in fantasy football is running back. I have watched the RB position go from 25 three-down RBs to 15 three-down backs, and now we’re down to what, five? Using your first two fantasy draft picks on RBs is no longer an automatic gambit. Whether we call it a “timeshare,” “committee,” or “split” backfield, more RBs are getting involved. With this development in mind, I employ a scattershot approach to the position. Use the net and leave the pole at home when fishing for runningbacks. I will attempt to accommodate my recommended approach by providing a list of 120 runningbacks by rank. Let us begin with the top 40. If you’re curious about descriptions for the first 17 runningbacks, check out these articles ( Top 10 for 2022Top 25 2022Top 40 2022).

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth discuss some of the recent season affecting injuries and cuts as we enter a very busy draft weekend. Football is back! We start with the injury news to 2nd year running back, JK Dobbins, and where he fits in with fellow young RBs Cam Akers and Travis Etienne for dynasty value. Cam Newton is out, Mac Jones is in for New England. Where are the guys on the weapons? Jakobi Meyers, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, and the tight ends.

B_Don and DT compare their top 200 rankings. We discuss our biggest differences in Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, and a bunch of young WRs. We also talk about the guys that missed the cut for one of our lists in Dyami Brown, Tyrell Williams, and who we expect to take the 2nd WR spot for the Chiefs. 

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.

 

2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates

Player: Chris Carson

2020 FPPR: 1.92

Career avg. FPPR: 1.75

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.1 13.6

 

Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.

The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.   

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So you just reached the pinnacle of your existence by winning your fantasy football championship, now what? First, finish that pile of celebratory drugs, then slip your pants back on and put the Jergens away. Now it’s time to get back to work, with an eye toward 2021. A couple weeks have passed since I shocked the world with my top 10 dynasty rankings for 2021 fantasy football. December 4th, 2020 is a date which will live in infamy. The date when Donkey Teeth declared D.K. Metcalf as the top dynasty asset in all the land and then took his first shower in three months.

This year I brought in a ringer to keep me in check: Pat Fitzmaurice. Pat is currently sitting at #1 (out of 160 experts) in this year’s FantasyPros’ Ranking Accuracy Competition, he also finished #2 (out of 162 experts) in FP’s Draft Ranking Accuracy Competition in 2019 and he holds the title of #1 most accurate draft ranker from 2017-2019. In short, the man is a fantasy football ranking sorcerer and he was kind enough to record a YouTube show with me discussing each of our top 10s—subscribe and give us a like if you don’t hate it. Full disclosure: I haven’t had a professional haircut since February. Anyway, here’s that show, followed by my top 20 dynasty rankings for 2021 fantasy football:

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Week 1 of the playoffs is in the books and the podcast duo of B_Don and Donkey Teeth are happy with their performances with DT moving up into the Championship Bracket of the RazzBowl 2. The Browns and Ravens game was as entertaining as we’ve seen in the MNF spotlight this year. The Brown(s) Town keeps following around Cleveland, first it was OBJ and now it was the poo minute break for LJax.

We go over some of the injuries from week 14 and the potential fallout for Matthew Stafford, Deebo Samuel, and the Dolphins pass catchers. Speaking of Deebo Samuel, is it time to officially label him as injury prone, and has fellow Niner pass catcher Brandon Aiyuk passed him?

The guys bring up some of the RBs that have transformed into league winners here at the end of the year in David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Cam Akers. A couple of DT’s favorites in Miles Sanders and Jonathan Taylor made up for some of their previous transgressions by blowing up this week. We review some of the other happenings from week 14 before wrapping up with our A**hole of the Week! 

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Now that the 2020 fantasy football playoffs are upon us, my job overseeing the rest of season top 60 running back rankings here at Razzball are as through as the chances of Carson Wentz inviting Doug Pederson to this week’s Bible study. Last week, I put a bow on that project with one final, playoff edition of the top backs to target for those still in hot pursuit of a fantasy championship. Friends, we’ve come a long, long way from the initial set of rankings I constructed in the preseason edition, when I was young and naïve and my only prior experience with Reddit commenters was through the illegal streaming of countless sporting events. But now, since there are truly only two weeks of fantasy football remaining, my job is done. Instead, for those looking for rankings to use the next couple weeks, look to Donkey Teeth & Co. for further insight. All season long, Razzball’s Donkey Teeth and MB have been providing excellent work as always with their weekly fantasy football rankings. That’s the place to go for any and all remaining decisions. As for me, my final fantasy football post for 2020 will look ahead to 2021. Who is an early favorite for that first overall pick in drafts? Which 2020 rookie backs have put themselves in the conversation for a first round pick? And hey, how about the incoming 2021 rookie class? Any early-round selection potential there? You already know I want me some Najee Harris the same way I wanted to be in bed with Dobbins the Take-it-to-the-House Elf all season long. But first, before you all take your Sunday wizardry robes off,  I’d like to take a few moments to reflect briefly on what we observed in 2020 (in lieu of a trip around the league), and how maybe we can use it as a learning experience to improve as fantasy owners in the years ahead.

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