Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.


2021 FPPR Regression Candidates


Player: Travis Kelce

2020 FPPR: 2.48

Career avg. FPPR: 2.26

FPPR Variance: 10%


2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
17.3 15.8


Please, blog, may I have some more?