Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point less per game they need to average four receptions per game and see a decrease in FPPR of .25.

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

Player: Mike Evans

2020 FPPR: 3.05

Career avg. FPPR: 2.75

FPPR Variance: 11%

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
13.4 12.1

We will not fault you for buying Mike Evans in the 4th round heading into his second season with Tom Brady. Theoretically, his 62.9 receiving yards per game was the lowest of his career roughly 15 yards lower than his career average. However, hear us out on this one. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown played 11 games together including the playoffs. Below is the breakdown of the targets and PPG in those games.

Player Targets PPG
Mike Evans 76 13.1
Chris Godwin 76 11.8
Antonio Brown 74 10.8

The 13.1 PPG from Evans would have made him the WR17 in PPG last season just ahead of Brandon Aiyuk. It is important to note that the Buccaneers will get back O.J. Howard and added pass-catching specialist Giovani Bernard out of the backfield. Currently being drafted as the WR14 according to NFC ADP, it is fair to wonder if Evans offers much of a ceiling with one of the toughest target competitions in the NFL.

Player: Tyreek Hill

2020 FPPR: 3.00

Career avg. FPPR: 2.69

FPPR Variance: 12%

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
19 17.2

A few things we need to discuss about Tyreek Hill’s “regression” before we get started. Hill’s 19 PPG in .5 PPR was the best season for any wide receiver since Antonio Brown in 2015. The issue is that season came in the year Davante Adams averaged 21.6 PPG. The projected 17.2 would still put Hill ahead of Stefon Diggs as the WR2 so no need to panic. It is important to identify where you should draft Hill knowing he might regress in 2021.

In the three seasons with Patrick Mahomes Hill has averaged 17.8, 13.3, and 19 PPG. The projected 17.2 PPG is more in line with his 2018 season and still puts Hill roughly 6 PPG higher than the WR30 in 2020. That is slightly higher than what the RB7 James Robinson had vs. the RB30. This difference-making production still makes Hill a borderline first-round pick. 

Player: Davante Adams

2020 FPPR: 2.63

Career avg. FPPR: 2.31

FPPR Variance: 14%

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
21.6 19

Davante Adams was the first wide receiver since Randy Moss in 2007 to crack the 20 points per game mark in .5 PPR. This insane season included 115 catches and 18 TDs in just 14 games. It’s not like 2021 was a fluke. In 2018, Adams was tied with Antonio Brown for the WR1 in PPG at 18.1. Now with Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, it is safe to say Adams is a lock to return as the WR1 in fantasy.

Even with his potential regression, Adams would still average 2.4 more PPG than Stefon Diggs in 2020. This is why Adams is the only wide receiver worth picking before the 1 / 2 turn pick in fantasy drafts this season. 

Player: D.J. Moore

2020 FPPR: 2.67

Career avg. FPPR: 2.32

FPPR Variance: 15%

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
11.9 10.4

Heading into 2020 D.J. Moore was considered by most to be the next big thing at the wide receiver position. We saw his ADP in the mid-third round going as the WR10 off the board. Instead, the Panthers had a three-headed monster at wide receiver which capped Moore’s upside. This left him to finish as the WR22 in PPG last season.

Flash forward to 2021 and his ADP has dipped to the WR20 in the middle of the 4th. Yes, Moore should see his efficiency drop but it’s fair to wonder if 2020 is closer to his new norm. In 2018 he didn’t start for the Panthers until week 8 and 2019 he played most of the season with Kyle Allen. In 2021 the Panthers added former 3rd overall pick, Sam Darnold, to hopefully boost the offense. Overall, his mid-4th round ADP is fine, but we would recommend drafting Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, and Cooper Kupp in that range.

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

Quick Slants


Player: Adam Thielen

2020 FPPR: 2.89

Career avg. FPPR: 2.40

FPPR Variance: 20%

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.3 11.9

This one seems obvious as Adam Thielen caught 14 touchdowns on 74 receptions. However, the reason why he is just a quick slant is the 11.9 PPG projection would have made him the WR22 in 2020. This is right in line with his ADP at WR21 so no need to fade him in the 4th round.

Player: Russell Gage

2020 FPPR: 1.93

Career avg. FPPR: 1.73

FPPR Variance: 11%

2020 PPG

2021 Projected PPG



We were shocked to see Russell Gage going right around the 10/11 turn pick. Yes, Gage is most likely locked into the second wide receiver role with Julio Jones gone, but last season he saw 110 targets. Even with that high target season he only produced 8.7 PPG. We shouldn’t expect his targets to go up with the team pass volume going down. This is why it’s best to look elsewhere in that range.

Player: Will Fuller

2020 FPPR: 3.06

Career avg. FPPR: 2.75

FPPR Variance: 12%

2020 PPG

2021 Projected PPG



Will Fuller had his breakout season in 2020 with DeAndre Hopkins leaving. Now in Miami, there are three things that make Fuller a fade at his 8th/9th round ADP. One of his target competition is going to be a lot tougher in Miami. Two the quarterback play will not be as strong moving from Deshaun Watson to Tua Tagovailoa. Three his suspension week one leaves the door open for DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle to jump him in the target totem pole.

Player: Nelson Agholor

2020 FPPR: 3.37

Career avg. FPPR: 2.27

FPPR Variance: 48%

2020 PPG

2021 Projected PPG



Nelson Agholor was the only wide receiver in the top 40 to not crack 50 receptions. Not saying he is going anywhere near that in the 13th round of drafts outside top 60 wide receivers. But the New England Patriots will be at the bottom of the league in attempts. This along with a crowded field of pass-catchers makes it hard to see him producing anything near his 2020. Players going later than Agholor we recommend drafting over him include Tyrell Williams, Bryan Edwards, and Sammy Watkins.

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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders