We have reached the ocean floor of our wide receiver ranking. It is dark, empty, and bleak down here. There are some treasures to be found on the sea bed but you are more likely to find ghosts and eerie creatures. Many of these receivers are former 1st and 2nd round draft picks who never […]
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John Brown
Target(s), Don’t Tell Your Wife We Like To Shop Here
August 5, 2021 | 2021 Fantasy Football | 1 Commentby: Nic Romero
Guess who’s back, back again? Rome is back, tell a friend.
You heard it here first, I am back on the active roster for the Razzball Fantasy Football Team. This year’s focus will be targets. Each week I will highlight target share trends to help you dominate lineup decisions and critical waiver claims over the course of the season. Just add this as another tool to your belt, along with all of the other edge-creating tools provided by Razzball.
Today we highlight a few NFL roster changes that impact target opportunities. Keep in mind, not all targets are created equal. Red-zone and end-zone targets are more valuable than a 2-yard target at the 40-yard line. A departing receiver with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 11.2 is leaving behind more valuable targets than a departing WR with a 4.5 aDOT. While a team with a lot of vacated targets provides an opportunity to find value on draft day, a team that made additions to their WR room will dilute opportunities for some of our favorite fantasy receivers from 2020. Let’s dive in and take a look at who’s stock is up after the offseason.
Please, blog, may I have some more?When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?
Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.
- The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
- The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
- When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years
Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age. If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.
Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)
| WR Age | Points | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 177.7 | 11.3 |
| 22 | 182.9 | 12 |
| 23 | 183.5 | 12 |
| 24 | 174.5 | 11.3 |
| 25 | 191.3 | 12.2 |
| 26 | 205.5 | 13.3 |
| 27 | 185.3 | 12 |
| 28 | 191 | 12.6 |
| 29 | 194.1 | 12.6 |
| 30 | 177.6 | 11.5 |
| 31 | 182.5 | 11.6 |
| 32 | 171.4 | 11.6 |
| 33 | 179.4 | 11.5 |
| 34 | 183.2 | 11.6 |
| 35 | 154.4 | 10.1 |
| 36 | 131.9 | 8.5 |
| 37 | 144.9 | 10.4 |
As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.
Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.
Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the last article we highlighted which NFC players have the most to gain if their current teams don’t draft a player at a similar position. In this article we will discuss which current AFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.
Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.
Baltimore Ravens
Total picks: 7
Round 1: No. 27 overall
Round 2: No. 58
Round 3: No. 104
Impacted Player: Marquise Brown
Marquise Brown turned it on in the second half of 2020 increasing his production in nearly every metric. This spike in production coincides with Mark Andrews missing time due to COVID. However, even after Andrews returned Brown was still producing at a high level. Below are his stats side by side before Andrews went out with Covid and after he returned. The 13.2 points per game (PPG) in those final 6 weeks (including playoffs) would have made Brown the wide receiver 15 in 2020. Brown’s current Best ball average draft position (ADP) is wide receiver 36.
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Fantasy Football Podcast: The Start Of NFL Free Agency
March 20, 2021 | Fantasy Football Podcast |by: B_Don
B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back for another episode of the Razzball Fantasy Football Podcast. With the start of NFL free agency, the guys are going to discuss the early signings and what it means for some of the other fantasy options on those teams.
We start with the Aaron Jones signing who is firmly a RB1 after this signing for both of us. What about AJ Dillon though? The two have different opinions about what Dillon’s role may look like.
Dak Prescott is back with the Cowboys to nobody’s surprise. Nothing too new on this one, but we talk about which guys we trust in the offense and where each of us is on Zeke in ’21.
Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are back for another run with the Bucs. And Brady’s former team, the Patriots, have been buys in free agency bring back Cam Newton and signing Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne.
Listen in as we continue on with signings including: Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Corey Davis, Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill, Malcolm Brown, Marlon Mack, Mark, Ingram, A.J. Green, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Allen Robinson, and more.
The guys make their first bet on the season in the Houston back field. Donkey Teeth is taking David Johnson and B_Don is taking Mark Ingram.
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WAY too early Top 80 WR for 2021
December 18, 2020 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Commentsby: al_FF_red
The fantasy regular season is in the books and I already laid out rankings for the playoffs. So what else is there to do but look ahead into the crystal ball and see what 2021 could have in store. As always, this is not format specific but a general ranking based simply on who I’d rather see on my roster in 2021. I am happy to talk specifics in the comments, as the note section is not meant to be a thesis explaining the position of each ranking.
I have included some choice rookies for 2021, although in all likelihood there will be more that make their way into the top 80 by season’s end. This year there are currently 5 rookies in the top 50 WR in fantasy points per game. With offenses using more 3 and 4 wide formations, rookies can get on the field early and often. Earning snaps is the biggest hurdle for most rookies but that is not as hard as it used to be when only 2 WRs were featured. Rookie receivers should continue to be assets even in redraft leagues, so I have been generous in my rankings with 2 rookies already in the top 36.
Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!
And without further ado…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Your WR top 80 14.0 is here! This is a playoff specific edition of the WR ranks, with extra weight given to the next 3 matchups specifically. Nothing matters but the path ahead so a few players jumped up because of their schedule. Additionally guys who are currently injured might as well be off the list, although some are straggling around like Kenny Golladay, but there is no guarantee he’ll suit up for our fantasy teams.
This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”
Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Rest of Season Top 80 WRs Week 13
December 2, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football, Rest of Season Rankings, Top 80 WR Rankings | 8 Commentsby: al_FF_red
Your WR top 80 13.0 is here! Even though week 12 hasn’t ended yet, we’re on to the final countdown. If you’re 7-5 or better you can probably coast but a playoff seed may be on the line. If you’re rolling at 6-6 or in some leagues maybe even 5-7 this is do or die. Obviously “rest of season” doesn’t really mean much with one game left in the regular season but this is still a relative ranking of the best WRs in our game. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback.
This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”
Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Rest of Season Top 80 WR: Week 12
November 25, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football, Rest of Season Rankings, Top 80 WR Rankings | 8 Commentsby: al_FF_red
Your WR top 80 13.0 is here! As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback.
This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”
Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Rest of Season Top 80 WRs: Week 11
November 18, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football, Rest of Season Rankings, Top 80 WR Rankings | 14 Commentsby: al_FF_red
Your WR top 80 12.0 is here! Despite DeAndre Hopkins’ heroics, Davante Adams remains in a tier all his own. Don’t worry, there are still plenty of fantastic options to choose from in tier 2. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback.
This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”
Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!
Please, blog, may I have some more?B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to talk about the events of week 10. What a weekend with the grossest week of football so far this season and a new Masters record.
The podcast starts with the Drew Brees injury and what each of us thinks it could mean for the Saints offensive weapons. We discuss the possible fallout of the Stafford and Bridgewater injuries.
With the rise of D’Andre Swift, we take a look at rookie RB rankings from this point forward. The guys can’t seem to agree on a specific order, but hash it out. The two then talk about some confusing backfields in the Browns, Rams, Bucs, and Colts, and how we are approaching them over the ROS.
As we move to WRs, B_Don asks DT if he trusts Marquez Valdes-Scantling after 2 strong showings, even with Allen Lazard likely to return to the mix. As with the RBs, the guys discuss a few complicated situations in the Eagles, Bucs, and Steelers. And of course, we finish with the A**hole of the week.
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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 10
November 14, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football | 2 Commentsby: Bobby LaMarco
Team: Washington Football Team
Opponent: Detroit Lions
WR1: Terry McLaurin
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant
| Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All Other Opponents | 15 | 4.9 | 72.7 | 0.5 | 12.5 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 7 | 5 | 74.3 | 0.4 | 12.5 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin to finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.
Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex
It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.
DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800
On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week player should pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.
