Earlier in the pre-season, I talked about the importance of staggering your fantasy football beats, much like J Dilla took his programmed hip-hop beats and swung them into a new genre. Sure, it’s easy enough to say, “Draft good guys,” but it’s also important to have players who fill roles when the veterans disappear or the good guys go bad. It’s like The Avengers series — you need enough characters to carry the franchise so that when there’s a snap…you get the idea. For every Black Panther, we need an Ant Man to move the series forward. You just keep rolling with the B-squad until the third act, and then fantasy glory is at hand! 

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Another snooze fest of a Thursday Night Football game in the books. The 2021 rematch of Super Bowl 51 did not have any of the excitement that the 2017 game had with this version of the Falcons unable to get anything going. There was no lead to blow since they couldn’t even put points on the board. The Patriots defense completely dominated this game and at the end of the night, the Patriots had 4 interceptions and walked away with a 25-0 shutout win.

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I was working in the lab, late one night. When my eyes beheld an eerie sight. For my monster on his slab began to rise and suddenly to my surprise… He did the Mash. The Monster Mash

Just take these wise words in for a moment. Breathe them in. The monster… he did the mash. And don’t we all do the mash sometimes, much to the chagrin and sometimes excitement to our contemporaries? Yes, even sometimes it will truly be a “graveyard smash”. 

What was this section about? Oh uh Halloween injury report. Right. There was a thread here but I got carried away in the poetry of Bobby “Boris” Pickett & The Crypt Kickers (Side note: Here’s a great TV performance of Bobby Pickett doing the Monster Mash, a real masterclass in making really weird faces and being a weirdo).

The teams who will have some extra trick-or-treating time on bye this week are the Ravens and the Raiders. See ya next week! 

Let’s get into this week’s horror show!

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So, they think they found the Zodiac Killer huh? I had this case solved in 2007 after seven marathon viewings of David Fincher’s Zodiac. The eighteen-hour film festival of sorts guided me to another cinematic treasure and the true greatest San Francisco based film of all-time, Homeward Bound II: Lost In San Francisco. Every clue to every cipher can be found there. All those exhausted detectives. All those man hours. One viewing of HB: Dos with Sassy, Chance, and Shadow would’ve solved all your problems. You know what else is exhausting? Trying to find the right person on your waiver wire. Lucky for you, I patterned my work ethic this week after Robert Downey Jr. and Jake Gyllenhaal in Zodiac (Seriously the best San Francisco based film or maybe it is Vertigo. Yeah, it’s Vertigo), pounded the coffee to find some of this week’s best options on the waiver wire.

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Ah, well. That was a rough week one. Some amazing games, spectacular moments, and lots of injuries. It’s always a bit of shell-shock from the offseason to week one, seeing all the guys you’ve salivated over (no innuendo intended) suddenly go down with an injury, erasing all the precious production you were waiting for. But this is football after all and injuries will happen. Profound right? Maybe not but whatever, you just want to know who’s gonna post those precious stats on the board, huh? You goddamned sicko? These are human beings! You just want that sweet, sweet fantasy advice, huh dirtbag?  Well, here it is!

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Well, my precious goblins and ghouls, the football season is finally upon us. And naturally, with that, I have the grave responsibility to inform you fine specimens of the injuries that can and will impact your Week 1 fantasy rosters. 

Such is life. 

Let’s jump in and see who might be available on your waiver or can receive a bump in production from the gaps left by these poor, hurt souls. 

Shall we? 

The first injury to look at is… *checks notes* Oh the entire Ravens backfield. That’s not good! In just a few days the Ravens have lost their breakout star J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and the most recently Gus Edwards to terrible season-ending injuries. In response, the team has signed Latavius Murray along with Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman to their practice squad presumably to try to keep Lamar from having to rush approximately 10,000,000 yards per game. As of now, it looks like the Ravens are going to start the last running back left standing before the leg injury bloodbath, Ty’Son Williams, who might just have an opportunity against an uncertain Raiders pass rush under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and a reshaped defense. Look for Latavius Murray and Ty’Son Williams as a possible pick-up in leagues you might have had one of the injured fellows in and if you are feeling very adventurous maybe take a look at Le’Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman for a possible bounce-back campaign. I’m still not betting on that though, sorry Blair

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It was a world unknown — and I was using an egregiously overused portmanteau in place of my name: Hobbstradomus. I awoke to tell all what I envisioned: an unimaginable world of fantasy football in which Chris Collinsworth did not exist and yet the legendary John Madden was back in full color yelling BOOM! Every two seconds. Literally. But yet I saw the cards as they were to fall, rolled over to my left, and whispered in my dear fiancé’s ear…

Her reaction was not what I expected. She called me foolish — an idiot in fact — and promptly went back to bed. Although I cannot understand her reaction to a breakthrough as important as mine at 2:49 p.m. that fateful night — I can share my findings with those who do care. And so, I present to you my five bold predictions for the 2021 fantasy football season.

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

 

Player: Travis Kelce

2020 FPPR: 2.48

Career avg. FPPR: 2.26

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
17.3 15.8

 

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates

Player: Gerald Everett

2020 FPPR: 1.66

Career avg. FPPR: 2.10

FPPR Variance: -21%

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Part of me wondered if anyone would even notice if I only ranked the top 10 tight ends for 2021 fantasy football. We all remember what Confuscious said, “If a fantasy football tight end ranking post falls in the forest and nobody’s there to read, then did it happen?” I believe Confuscious also told us to draft Darren Waller each of the last two seasons. Wait. No. That was Donkey Teeth. People confuse the two of us so often that sometimes I get confused myself. Identity crises aside, someone must rank the Irv Smiths and the Adam Trautmans of the world, so why not Confuscious Teeth? If you’re just looking for a plain old list of rankings without the fluff, you can stop right here and go check out my top 200 for 2021 fantasy football. Anyway, here’s my top 20 tight ends for 2021 fantasy football:

Click here to see all 2021 Fantasy Football Tiered Rankings.

*Note: These rankings are geared toward half PPR scoring. Projections provided in this season’s rankings are NOT my own, they come from Rudy Gamble’s World-Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections. These preseason projections are available free of charge, while Rudy’s in-season weekly projection subscription is currently available until August 31st at an early bird discounted price of only $17.99 for the entire season! These are the same weekly projections that won Rudy Gamble the FantasyPros designation of “Best Bold Ranker” for the years 2017-2019 (and likely 2020!). 

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A late Target is a term describing a retail store open after 10 PM. A deep sleeper is a term you and your cousin Melinda use to describe your fat old uncle Bart. Neither are relevant in the realm of fantasy football, unless you and Melina decide to invite uncle Bart to the home decor section one night but end up staying past close because Bart got lost walking from the bedposts to the nightstands. That’s why any term can have an alternate meaning, such as a player to go after late in a fantasy football draft, or a player literally no one is in on except for a select few enlightened souls. For the most part, we all have preconceived notions regarding the players at the top of fantasy football drafts. Donkey Teeth will continue to target sexy upside with reckless abandon. I’ll continue to have nothing to do with Joe Mixon and receive thundering boos from the Reddit militia. And you, dear readers, will be no different. It’s when we get late into drafts that we start to lose our way and look for high-upside fliers, and far too often I see my peers wasting draft capital as the rounds creep deeper into the double digits. This week, I’ll break down one late target and deep sleeper at running back, wide receiver and tight end — and leave it up to you who to go after and include in your 2021 late-round draft strategy.

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