Does Draft Capital Matter For Future Fantasy Success?

Now we know we are not the first to journey down this path, but we are here to simplify the search. What we did was look back over the last 10 years (2011-2020) to see how many consistent fantasy contributors came out of each round of the NFL draft. We aren’t going to be talking about one hit wonders. Instead, we are highlighting the players who were able to sustain some level of fantasy success over their careers.

In this article we are reviewing the running back position. The benchmark used was 10 points per game in half point per reception (PPR) for their career. Before anyone loses their minds, this article isn’t saying that 10 points per game is a top 24 running back each year. However, the lower points per game helps take into account flex spots to start a 3^rd running back and/or a down year from an otherwise consistent starting tailback.

Below you will find a chart breaking out draft capital by round for running backs. The chart is broken out into four columns:

1. Round Drafted – Identifies the round in the NFL draft that the running backs were drafted
2. Total running backs drafted – This is the total number of running backs drafted in that round over the past 10 years
3. Career 10 PPG in .5 PPR – This column represents how many running backs drafted in that round hit the benchmark of 10 PPG for their careers in .5 PPR
4. % Hit Rate – The final column shows what percentage of the running backs drafted in that round hit that benchmark

Feel free to just review the chart only and take what you want from it. If you want some additional insight on how we feel about 2021 prospects based on this data it will be included later in the article!