Your WR top 80 4.0 is here! Now we have some real live NFL data to help make adjustments. Some players were removed due to injury or ineffectiveness, and some new faces have forced their way onto the scene.

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 2

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Allen Robinson

Shadow Coverage Match-up: James Bradberry

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 22 5.5 72.4 0.4 12.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 4.6 44.1 0.3 8.4
Vs. James Bradberry N/A

 

When reviewing Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage he had 2 big games and 5 duds. His big weeks came vs. notable corners Marshon Lattimore and Darius Slay where he turned 12 targets into 80 yards plus yards and a score in both. The interesting thing about the Saints game is Lattimore shut down Robinson when he covered him on 67% of his snaps, but Robinson was able to dominate in the slot which helped him finish with a strong day. The remaining 5 games Robinson struggled, failing to get to 50 yards or score in any of them.

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I have been doing a lot of thinking about week 1 and what we can trust and what we should throw away. It’s a tough thing to not trust your eyes for future projections. I guess that’s what makes sports gambling so difficult. New casinos don’t pop up from everybody winning. How does one pick who to double down on off of a blah performance? The same goes for breakout performances. How do we know it wasn’t a one-off occurrence? Instincts plays a big role. When you’ve been playing fantasy football for over a decade you pick up on trends and apply it to new situations. Another thing, I’m really excited to be writing the start/sit column every week. Yes, the title alone brings a lot of eyes, but also I want to challenge myself to put personal biases aside to try and help build lineups for you, the reader. I had a BIG whiff last week on Ben Roethlisberger. That was a failure on my part to not weigh the matchup heavier than the overall narrative that I have for him in 2020.

The results from last week weren’t bad at all outside of that misstep. Shout out to Will Fuller! Nobody outside of him really popped. Taylor, Garappolo, and Ronald Jones were fine, I suppose. Desean Jackson didn’t do diddly squat, but that’s on his QB. Everyone outside of Roethlisberger that I suggested sitting did absolutely nothing. We’re on to week 2.

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Your WR top 80 3.0 is here! Now we have some real live NFL data to help make adjustments. Some players were removed due to injury or ineffectiveness, and some new faces have forced their way onto the scene.

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As we prepare for the 2020 season, there are tons of hot takes swirling around the internet. Some are baseless tweets and articles meant to stir up conversation and clicks. Others are bold predictions that do have some foundation in reality, even if it’s a long shot. I plan to make this article somewhere in the middle.

Football is set up for small samples with only 16 games in a season and roughly 55-65 offensive snaps per game. In football, even a player with “a lot” of volume may only participate in a fantasy relevant play on 20 of those snaps. Contrast that with baseball where each hitter on a team sees 600 at bats in a season!

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This is the second iteration of my top 80 wide receivers with all the latest updates to this point. Some players were removed due to injury, and some new faces have forced their way onto the scene.

I plan on updating this list bi-weekly as news comes in and the season approaches then of course each week in-season. This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s still blazing hot outside but fall is around the corner and that means it’s fantasy draft time! This is the first iteration of my top 80 wide receivers with all the latest updates to this point. 

I plan on updating this list weekly as news comes in and the season approaches then of course each week in-season.  This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Some players have notes highlighting a format they may be more suited for. 

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“To ride a horse at a gallop; ride at full speed”. That is the dictionary.com definition of the word “gallop”. So what happens when you change a vowel? What is the dictionary definition of the NAME Gallup? Is it “breakout,” “efficient,” “underestimated,” “regression”? These are the questions that many fantasy football drafters are asking right now when they’re staring at Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup in their queue this draft season. Should you hop on and ride at full speed into your championship?

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Team: Buffalo Bills

Division: AFC EAST

WR1: Stefon Diggs

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8


Historical Production

Stefon Diggs vs Shadow Coverage 2018-2019

Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage 6 11
All other opponents 24 13.4

*Point per game based on receiving stats only

Diggs has seen some mixed results vs. shadow corners. Top cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Peterson and Darius Slay held him under 50 yards over the past two seasons. However, Diggs did have one dominate performance vs. Chris Harris and the Denver Broncos. In five of six games he was held under the 13.4 points per game average he has in all other match-ups while failing to reach double digit fantasy points in 50% of those games in .5 PPR. Overall Diggs only produced one WR1 week in the games he saw shadow coverage from a tier 1 cornerback.

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Every year there are a handful of players that can elevate a fantasy team to the championship or sink it to the depths of the standings. All players are unique in their skill sets, team context, and career trajectory but some profiles do line up. 

As we get into draft season, we’re all trying to avoid the next big bust. With injuries, it’s often just bad luck but often times we can see a storm brewing around a player. Last year Le’Veon Bell was returing after a season off on a new team with a lackluster coach and a disappointment was almost too easy to spot, but many fell for it anyway. In the name of value, drafters will hold their nose and take players they know they shouldn’t. Sometimes it’s just best to avoid a bad situation.

So who will be this year’s not NEXT team? (ADPs via fantasydata)

Jared Gofftop 10 QB who is demoted to streamer

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