Hello everyone and welcome to Week 14 of the Streamer Report. It’s the most wonderful time of the year right now. No, not the weeks leading up to Christmas, but the Fantasy Playoffs, where life separates the men from the boys. We’ll be taking a look at the best streaming options this week for Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, as well as the best option for kickers and defenses.

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We are now just one week away from the fantasy playoffs, and while he struggle for the final few spots in our league’s playoff brackets, many NFL teams are also having to mount some serious playoff pushes if they hope to be playing football in January and February this season. One team in particular will prepare to get into a divisional race against some familiar foes as they prepare to head to Miami, Florida in one of the best offensive matchups of the week.

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Turkey day provided some… interesting football. David Blough was Joe Montana. The matchup between the third string quarterback-led Lions and the dismal Bears hit the over in total points, because of course it would. The Cowboys got completely stymied by the Bills. Younghoe Koo turned out to have the touch of Pelé in a close comeback effort.

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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Julio Jones is always a costly receiving option. In the past seven weeks though, he has underperformed based on his expensive price point. Three catches for 79 yards against the Saints was fine, I guess. Six catches for 91 last week would have been awesome for a DFS WR3 option. But for Julio, this just doesn’t cut it for me.

This is exactly the reason why I hope he doesn’t get taken by the other CLUELESS daily fantasy players that don’t read my almighty advice before each Sunday. Those same people that didn’t read my advice on the Josh Allen-John Brown stack, or Zeke’s bounce-back performance, or Kyle Rudolph’s minimally-priced game last week. Sigh. Some people will never learn.

Here are the top value picks, alongside Julio, for DFS this week.

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You just knew Eddie’s kick wasn’t going to go in too right? It didn’t matter that it was only a 41-yard kick. You see, the Bears are kind of like the Buccaneers when it comes to the kicking game. The kicking game is cursed. Once Pineiro hit the upright in the first half, any kick that was going to be important didn’t stand a chance. It was in Eddie’s head, it was in the crowd’s head, and it was in my head at home. 

I was watching the game with a good buddy who is a Bears fan and it was completely quiet for most of the drive. The only thing that was said the whole drive was by him. He just kept repeating, “Why aren’t they going for a touchdown? They need to go for a touchdown, you can’t leave it up to the kicker.” He was right. We all were right. Here is what else I saw during the early slate of games on Sunday.

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I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.

In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.

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There’s nothing more frustrating than a pickup recommendation that looks bad on the surface because of a bad performance in a tough matchup. I think you know where this is going. Let’s chat about Sam Darnold. I’ve been touting Sam Darnold since last Tuesday when I filled in for Boof and submitted the waiver wire column for you, my faithful readers. I even put Sam Darnold as my pickup of the week for the FantasyPros waiver wire blurb this week.

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