Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
---|---|
WR Finish | Total |
1 | 20 |
2 | 11 |
3 | 11 |
4+ | 29 |
Grand Total | 71 |
Team: Detroit Lions
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
WR1: Marvin Jones
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Malcom Butler
Marvin Jones vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All other opponents | 31 | 4.4 | 56.7 | 0.6 | 11.5 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 4 | 4.3 | 48.8 | 0.3 | 8.5 |
Julio Jones vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 22 | 7.2 | 109.5 | 0.5 | 17.6 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 16 | 6 | 81.3 | 0.4 | 13.4 |
vs. Marshon Lattimore | 1 | 3 | 79 | 0 | 9.4 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
Ok, let’s try this again! After Lattimore missed week 11 and Julio left early we still don’t have much to go on when these two play each other. Back in 2018 the Saints used Marshon Lattimore on Calvin Ridley and tried to double Julio with Eli Apple as the primary CB. Let’s just say that didn’t go well as Julio went for 11-147. In 2019 the Saints wised up and used Lattimore on Julio; however, Lattimore left the game early due to injury and only played half the snaps. Still Julio only finished with a modest 3-79 all of which came after Lattimore left the game. Later in the year Julio missed the second game vs. the Saints so you see we truly don’t know how this matchup will pan out.
Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex
With Julio dealing with another injury in 2020 it is hard to trust him as his usual #1 self in week 13. The good news for Julio is Lattimore has only shadowed Mike Evans in 2020 and with his counterpart Janoris Jenkins out the Falcons should be able to move the football more this week. Most fantasy teams won’t have the depth to fade Julio and with his career 13.4 PPG vs. shadow coverage, Julio should do enough to get the job done in season long leagues
DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,000 / DK $6,600
Julio is priced as a top 8 option on FD making him a full fade at that price. On DraftKings you are able to get him at a reduced cost at roughly top 16 value, but even at that price playing on a bum wheel it might make him tough to trust. Players I would pivot to include Allen Robinson vs. DET and Adam Thielen vs JAX.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
---|---|
WR Finish | Total |
1 | 15 |
2 | 8 |
3 | 8 |
4+ | 25 |
Grand Total | 56 |
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: New England
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR2: Christian Kirk
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore
J.C. Jackson
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 27 | 7.4 | 96.3 | 0.4 | 16 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 17 | 6.5 | 76.2 | 0.6 | 14.4 |
vs. Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 6.7 | 72.7 | 0 | 10.6 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
According to PFF this season DeAndre Hopkins has yet to face any shadow coverage in 2020. This comes after back to back seasons where he saw shadow coverage in 50% of his games. This “softer” cornerback schedule has led to a solid season so far in 2020 as Hopkins is the WR7 in PPG. Overall, throughout his career Hopkins has been solid vs. shadow coverage as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers.
As for Christian Kirk he has never seen shadow coverage in his career, but that doesn’t stop the Patriots from using shadow coverage on multiple players. In weeks 9 and 11 of 2020 the Patriots used multiple CBs to shadow the opposing teams WRs and in 2019 used Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in similar roles down the stretch.
Week 12 Recommendation DeAndre Hopkins – WR3/Flex
Christian Kirk – SIT
Hopkins’ 10.6 vs. Stephon Gilmore doesn’t make him a sit, but tempering expectations on the road vs. the Patriots isn’t a bad idea. Hopkins has yet to score a TD or top 80 yards receiving in any of the games vs. Gilmore since he joined the Patriots back in 2017. These numbers leave Hopkins as solid WR2/flex in week 12.
As for Christian Kirk J.C. Jackson has been playing at a very high level slowing down a white-hot Will Fuller (6-80) while leading the NFL in interceptions so far in 2020. This season the Patriots have yet to allow a team to have multiple WRs hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR at home in 2020.
DFS Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,100
Christian Kirk Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,800
Hopkins vs. Gilmore doesn’t equal DFS success as his 10 PPG will not justify his cost on both sites. At this price point you can pay up for Tyreek Hill in a game which should be a shootout in TB. As for Christian Kirk his price point on both sites is between WR 24-30, and with not a lot of WR success overall when the Patriots play at home its best to pivot. Players I would use over Kirk include DeVante Parker vs. NYJ and Curtis Samuel vs. MIN.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
---|---|
WR Finish | Total |
1 | 13 |
2 | 7 |
3 | 7 |
4+ | 25 |
Grand Total | 52 |
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: New England Patriots
WR1: Will Fuller
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore
Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 23 | 4.8 | 70.5 | 0.5 | 12.6 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 4 | 3 | 45 | 0.3 | 7.5 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. In 2020 Will Fuller has shined in his new role, and was able to find the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7
Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex
With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bump knee it is fair to question of effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11.
DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900
On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX
Please, blog, may I have some more?Team: Washington Football Team
Opponent: Detroit Lions
WR1: Terry McLaurin
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant
Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 15 | 4.9 | 72.7 | 0.5 | 12.5 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 7 | 5 | 74.3 | 0.4 | 12.5 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin to finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.
Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex
It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.
DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800
On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week player should pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.
Team: New York Giants
Please, blog, may I have some more?Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Houston Texans
WR1: D.J. Chark
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby
D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent |
Games |
Rec |
Yards |
TDs |
PPG |
All Other Opponents |
18 |
4.9 |
66.8 |
0.6 |
12.8 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage |
3 |
3.7 |
32.3 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
Vs. Houston Texans |
3 |
4.7 |
34.3 |
0.3 |
7.8 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
It has been a tough go of it for D.J. Chark when he has faced shadow coverage in his young career only averaging 5.1 PPG. This includes a matchup earlier this season vs. Bradley Roby where he only secured 3 receptions for 16 yards. This production came on a day when Gardner Minshew threw for 301 yards and 2 scores. Dating back to last season Chark has yet to get over 50 yards or score in a game when he faces shadow coverage.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Team: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
WR1: Adam Thielen
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander
Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 26 | 5.4 | 66.4 | 0.6 | 12.8 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 8 | 5.8 | 82.4 | 0.9 | 16.4 |
Vs. Jaire Alexander | 2 | 7 | 117.5 | 1.5 | 24.3 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
Adam Thielen has been one of the best WRs when facing shadow coverage throughout his career. This includes three great performances in 2020 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 1 (6-110-2), Bradley Roby in week 4 (8-114-1) and A.J. Terrell (3-51-1). Now I am not going to sit here and say this is the murderers row of cornerbacks, but even before 2020 Thielen has been very consistent when facing shadow coverage which is reflected in his 16.4 PPG.
Season Long Recommendation – Start
To say Adam Thielen has Jaire Alexander’s number is an understatement. In 2 career games in his coverage Thielen has dominated him securing 7 – 117.5 – 1.5 while averaging a robust 24.3 PPG. This game will be in Lambeau and early indication is it will be cold and windy. This will be the first time Thielen will face Alexander in shadow coverage on the road so maybe another 20 point performance is out of the question. That being said, with Green Bay 6-point favorites the expectation is the Vikings will need to throw early and often to keep up. That is why Thielen is a must start season long player.
DFS – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,200
Adam Thielen is rated as a top 5 WR on both sites meaning he will need to have another monster game to return value for you in week 8. His historical production vs. Alexander suggests that he could do it again, but in 2/3 games in Green Bay he has been held under 100 yards and had zero touchdowns. Call it a hunch but Thielen might be a DFS fade this week on the road. Players I would pivot to include A.J Brown vs. CIN and Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
WR1: Will Fuller
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander
Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
All Other Opponents | 21 | 4.8 | 70.6 | 0.5 | 12.6 |
Vs. Shadow Coverage | 3 | 3 | 48.3 | 0 | 6.3 |
Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
---|---|
WR Finish | Total |
1 | 5 |
2 | 3 |
3 | 3 |
4+ | 15 |
Grand Total | 26 |
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
WR1: Mike Evans
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander
Please, blog, may I have some more?Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
---|---|
WR Finish | Total |
1 | 5 |
2 | 3 |
3 | 3 |
4+ | 11 |
Grand Total | 22 |