Another snooze fest of a Thursday Night Football game in the books. The 2021 rematch of Super Bowl 51 did not have any of the excitement that the 2017 game had with this version of the Falcons unable to get anything going. There was no lead to blow since they couldn’t even put points on the board. The Patriots defense completely dominated this game and at the end of the night, the Patriots had 4 interceptions and walked away with a 25-0 shutout win.

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Elevensises. Eleven from Stranger Things. 7-11. Turn it up to…eleven. All right, now what’s your favorite Dungeons and Dragons race? Did you say “Halfling?” I knew it was Halfling! OK, now that I’ve scared away the normies, let’s jump in and figure out what the front door to do about our teams on this, the [checks notes] 11th week of fantasy football. What a coincidence — I didn’t even plan that lede to go with the eleventh week. I suppose that’s what happens when I start writing at the 11th Hour. I’m done, I promise! Meet me after the jump. 

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Week 10 of the NFL was another wild one. The Lions did not lose; the Cardinals, Rams, Raiders, Browns, and Falcons certainly did. Another top running back was injured. And parity reigns supreme, as at least 20 teams probably still feel like they have a chance at the playoffs. Let’s dissect the developments of Week 10 and how they affect our dynasty league waiver wire.

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I’ve been married for seven years now, but we’ve been together much longer. Through our relationship, I’ll often turn to her, look deep into her eyes and say, “You know those dogs from Homeward Bound are dead now right?” I get the death stare every time, but readers of Wright on Waivers I have a secret to tell you. I sort of love Homeward Bound. I believe this is the second time I have referenced it in my short time here at Razzball. The scene I like most (spoilers) is when Shadow comes over the hill and sees Peter after their long time apart. It gets me all misty. I mean who does not love a story of someone finally making their way back home. Our lead name in this week’s waiver article is a lot like Shadow. He still has a few journeys and walks ahead of him. It is just nice to see him taking his final trips in a familiar place. Welcome home Cam.

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It was the middle of the night when the message woke me, it’s incessant buzzing threading the neurons in my brain. It said, Tom Brady’s gonna be useless, start Trevor Siemian today. With my mind on rankings and helping the Average Joe, Jose, and Josephine, I couldn’t fall back into the grasp of the Sandman. I had to tell the people. I had to tell them to run away from Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield (“Why didn’t they listen to me on Baker?”), and instead ask my unfailing followers to go all in on Gabriel Davis. Wait, did I do that? [checks To Do List] Aww crap I told you to start everybody else. But on the plus side, we didn’t end up with the Bills losing in a battle of field goals, did we? Let’s check out what happened on Sunday for fantasy football: 

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On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. This koan comes from Fight Club, or more casually, from Buddhism. We are creatures that are all disintegrating cell-by-cell, moment by moment. But the thought process that comes with that knowledge isn’t solved by nihilism, or the idea that we just give up and discover that life is meaningless. But rather, the point of the koan is to be aware of one’s inevitable demise and to draw attention to the present moment and its value to you. [record scratch] What’s this have to do with fantasy football, EWB? You say, kernels of cheddar cheese popcorn falling out of your mouth and landing in your Country Time Lemonade (thank you to our sponsors). 

This sentiment is important to fantasy sports and betting because on a long enough timeline, most players will succeed. Or, at least they’ll arrive at their predictions. And knowing when to be patient and when to cut your losses is one of the most important skills a fantasy footballer (<—Grandma Donk’s words) can have.

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Friends, family, friends and family…draft time! You’ve seen Donkey Teeth and BDon show off their Friends and Family Drafts, and today, I want to kick off our heavy draft week with a look at how I drafted a .5 PPR Superflex team with the crew over at FTN. There are some notable names in this draft, and a lot of them come from betting backgrounds. In my opinion, betting approaches to fantasy tend to focus on value; you’ll hear a lot about “paying the price” for a player. Gamblers may like a player, but they won’t draft a player at too high of a value. For example, I hear many in the gambling community encouraging their audience to not draft Gus Edwards right now because previous drafters acquired Gus Edwards at a far more affordable draft cost. Of course, that advice applies more to Underdog drafts than Yahoo dogs. Meanwhile, I personally look at the team that I need to create — if I need a player to finish my vision, I’ll take that player regardless of where I am in the draft (within reason). So, without further ado, here’s my team that I drafted from the 5 spot, complete with commentary below. 

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We’re catching up on a few things today! First, I updated my Pre-Season Rankings, and I’m just going to give you some quick hits about my concerns about playing time right now. To be honest, we’re in the period of coach speak and “motivational moves,” so I’m not going to overhaul the ranks with every tweet we hear about Jalen Hurts. Then, we’ve got the Hall of Fame game summary! Lastly, I’ll go over my RazzBowl draft and give everybody an idea of how I approached a season-long fantasy draft.

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Over the last three seasons, the difference year to year between team’s production to the running back position is within five points per game roughly eighty percent of the time. In terms of improvement or deterioration to the position, unless drastic changes have been made to either on field or coaching personnel, the vulnerabilities or strengths do seem to carry over in most of the cases.

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At What Age Should You Fade A Running Back in Fantasy?

 

The previous intro worked so well for the wide receiver age analysis article we decided to use it again. 

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of running back production by age to see when the drop off comes for the position. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the running back position only
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 touches. Every running back ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 touches to qualify
  3. The points and points per game (PPG) are in half point (.5) points per reception (PPR)
  4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for touches as many players who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a touch baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young running backs who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the running backs who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the running backs (RB) age, the average total fantasy points those running backs had at that age and the average points per game (PPG) those running backs had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later.

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