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The goal of this article is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key slot matchups for week 8. To stay hip and keep up with the latest trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to wide receivers and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed to the slot this season.

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Is it me or are a lot of guys injured? Normally, I’d have some little cutsie intro to get into the carnage but sheesh, man! I don’t know about you but I’m getting killed out here! I actually sprained my right knee on a fishing boat last weekend and was listed as limited but here I am, dammit.

When I see the players I roster in person someday, I’m gonna tell them: If I can man up and type up a bunch of nonsense about fake football with a ligament injury, well then YOU GOTTA PLAY TOO, YOU BIG BABY!

As you can tell, this has been a tough week. Between my injury, all the injuries on my fantasy teams, and what’s happening to my Raiders… Well, we’ll get into that last part later.

And to add to the prevailing roster chaos we have our first bye week of the year! See you next week Jets, Falcons, 49ers, and Saints!

Let’s segue right into Sunday morning with an Intra-Florida showdown in London.

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Ah, well. That was a rough week one. Some amazing games, spectacular moments, and lots of injuries. It’s always a bit of shell-shock from the offseason to week one, seeing all the guys you’ve salivated over (no innuendo intended) suddenly go down with an injury, erasing all the precious production you were waiting for. But this is football after all and injuries will happen. Profound right? Maybe not but whatever, you just want to know who’s gonna post those precious stats on the board, huh? You goddamned sicko? These are human beings! You just want that sweet, sweet fantasy advice, huh dirtbag?  Well, here it is!

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One of the things I value most whether it be in film, music, or literature, is originality. When you get a hold of something with a truly fresh concept, it is mind-blowing. I remember the first time I saw Robert Downey Sr.’s Putney Swope. I had never seen humor and satire done in such a confrontational and blunt manner. I was used to the kind of satire found in the early works of Mel Brooks and Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove. Incredible works on their own, but Putney Swope was truly another level for me. If you’ve never seen the film, it tells the story of the only minority executive member of an advertising firm, who is accidentally put in charge after the sudden death of the chairman of the board. Restricted by the company by-laws from voting for themselves, members voted by secret ballot for the one person they thought would never win: Putney Swope. It is hilarious, raw, and confronts the race issues of the late ’60s as I had never seen before. Originality is paramount when it comes to me consuming my content. That being said, today I am to talk about sleepers for this 2021 season.

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In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point less per game they need to average four receptions per game and see a decrease in FPPR of .25.

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Guess who’s back, back again? Rome is back, tell a friend.

You heard it here first, I am back on the active roster for the Razzball Fantasy Football Team. This year’s focus will be targets. Each week I will highlight target share trends to help you dominate lineup decisions and critical waiver claims over the course of the season. Just add this as another tool to your belt, along with all of the other edge-creating tools provided by Razzball.

Today we highlight a few NFL roster changes that impact target opportunities. Keep in mind, not all targets are created equal. Red-zone and end-zone targets are more valuable than a 2-yard target at the 40-yard line. A departing receiver with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 11.2 is leaving behind more valuable targets than a departing WR with a 4.5 aDOT. While a team with a lot of vacated targets provides an opportunity to find value on draft day, a team that made additions to their WR room will dilute opportunities for some of our favorite fantasy receivers from 2020. Let’s dive in and take a look at who’s stock is up after the offseason.

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Enter Best Ball Drafts. A format growing closer to my heart by the year. No lineups to set. No waivers to run. You draft your team and the best possible lineup of your starters is automatically entered each week. A true paradise for those who love the draft room experience and are looking for buy-in. I have also found the auto-drafters, early exiting participants, and obscure first round picks aren’t as prevalent. Since making the switch, the largest difference I have seen is the percentage of my teams making the playoffs. More teams in the playoffs equates to more championships. A winner is you!

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As my Kerryon Johnson fathead and I prepared for our first Zoomsgiving on Thursday morning, I could feel the Excitement growing. Yes, I’ve named my dong “Excitement.” So I fired up AOL dialup connection to join the Razz-family Zoom call. Nothing could have prepared me for what I’d see on the other side of the screen once my 17 minute dial up was complete. The things Rudy Gamble, Pigskinonator and their Will Fuller fathead were doing would make Louis C.K. blush. A couple hours later ,Will Fuller came through again with a monstrous game against the Lions, catching 6 passes for 171 yards and his 7th and 8th touchdowns. The great Pigskinonator foreshadowed all of this, of course, projecting Fuller as its #3 fantasy wide receiver for week 12 and projecting Deshaun Watson (17/25 for 318 yards, 8 carries for 24 yards and 4 touchdowns–he now has 24 touchdowns) as its #2 QB for the week. If you haven’t tasted the deliciousness of the Pig-bot yet, we’re still offering a free 3-day trial and then it’s only $5.99 for the final month of the season. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 13
2 7
3 7
4+ 25
Grand Total 52

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup:  Stephon Gilmore

 

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 4.8 70.5 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 45 0.3 7.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. In 2020 Will Fuller has shined in his new role, and was able to find the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bump knee it is fair to question of effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900

On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX

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What a weekend! Masters Sunday in November due to pandemic scheduling. College football hanging on by a thread with virus outbreaks and cancelled games. But the NFL? No worries, mon. It was a light news cycle this week with lots of wind and weather, but one man had the gall to go off.  Wayne Gallman toted 18 carries for 53 yards, caught 1 pass for 7 yards and hit pay dirt for his 4th and 5th touchdowns. Wayne Enterprises’ stock spiked this past week when Devonta Freeman (hamstring) was placed on the IR. Somehow Gallman’s only owned in 50% of Yahoo leagues. Most of those leagues are probably abandoned but make sure yours isn’t one of them. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

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Your WR top 80 7.0 is here! Now we not only have to deal with injuries, we have to account for COVID inactives and postponements. Tier 2 got bigger, but until the elites we are waiting on return, tier 1 remains a two man show. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback. 

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

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