Target Report – Week 1 NFL

Fantasy draft day and week 1 of the NFL season rival the childhood joys of waking up on Christmas morning or the first day of summer break. Fans are back in the stands, football is back and week 1 lived up to the hype. 

It is important we do not overreact to the small sample size of week 1. Taking inventory of target trends is a critical tool to help with lineup decisions as the season progresses. Keep in mind, knowing target share (TS) trends can help provide a framework for buy-low and sell high trade candidates. Every Wednesday I will provide you with a weekly target report, highlighting key TS data and takeaways from the weekend. 

Success in fantasy football is built around opportunity, and consistent opportunity. It is important not to overreact to a poor fantasy outing when the usage is still there. If you are new to target share (TS) data, below is a breakdown of my TS tiers. 

• Set-it and forget-it : Target share > (greater than) 20%. Any pass catcher receiving over 20% TS should remain in lineups, even following an off-week in fantasy production. I consider any player over 25% TS an elite fantasy asset.
• WR 2-3 and Flex range:  Target share 15-19%. We should feel confident leaving these players in a 2nd or 3rd WR/RB or flex spot. Depending on the offense, this might be the highest range we see a player in a run-heavy scheme (i.e. week 1 Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns). 15% TS is my “Mason-Dixon line” when it comes to fantasy assets that I am interested in rostering or not. 
• Getting Desperate range – Risky Business: Target share 10-14%. You will see players in this range pop in fantasy production, but don’t be fooled into relying on consistent weekly production. These players are viable options when our rosters are thin with BYE weeks or have multiple players out with injuries. Low-end fantasy relevant TE’s usually fall in this range. 
• Fool’s Gold : Target share < (less than) 10%. Leave these players on the waivers. Let your ill-informed league-mates waste precious waivers claims and FAAB $$ OR use these players as trade bait. We will not waste word count on these players in the weekly target report. We can have a player in this range produce for one week, but I would not trust them in any lineup. Only for the deepest of leagues or desperate of plays. 

Another data point that will be referenced weekly in the Target Report is snap share (SS). This represents the percentage of offensive snaps the player was on the field. Taking note of SS trends will assist us in identifying players that are worth putting in waiver claims for or to drop. 

Arizona Cardinals

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Deandre Hopkins	25%	88.4%
A.J. Green	18.8%	79.7%
Christian Kirk	15.6%	56.5%
Rondale Moore	15.6%	29%
Chase Edmonds	12.5%	58%

Quick Hit: No debate, Nuk is elite. Figuring out the 2nd reliable fantasy WR in this offense will be the trick. Kirk and Moore led Green in fantasy production, but trailed significantly in SS. Hard to trust any of the three on a weekly basis, but owning a piece of this offense is intriguing. We need to keep an eye on how these numbers trend over the next couple of weeks. Moore will be a popular wavier add. Hold your shares on Green, but another dud and he might be drop worthy. Running back Chase Edmonds’ usage is a win for “zero-rb” truthers. 

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Calvin Ridley	22.9%	84.7%
Kyle Pitts	22.9%	68.1%
Mike Davis	17.1%	75%
Hayden Hurst	11.4%	59.5%

Quick Hit: The Eagles shut out Atlanta after putting together a couple of promising drives early in the game that only netted two field goals. Expect better days from Ridley and Pitts. Consider them week 1 buy-low candidates. My summer infatuation, Russell Gage, failed to register even the smallest blip on the radar. Davis’ passing game usage is promising. We need to monitor how Wayne Gallman fits in when acclimated to his new surroundings. Hurst might become a desperation TE play, if his usage holds.

Buffalo Bills

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Stefon Diggs	27.5%	92.9%
Cole Beasley	25.%	90.6%
Emmanuel Sanders	15.7%	92.9%

Quick Hit: Gabriel Davis needs to see a significant increase in targets and snaps to be worth a waiver add. By my scale, Beasley is a viable every-week starter. BUF is one of the leagues heaviest passing offenses. Josh Allen tied for 4th most pass attempts week 1 (51). Emmanuel Sanders is worth a bench spot in PPR leagues. 

Carolina Panthers

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Christian McCaffrey	25.7%	89.1%
DJ Moore	22.9%	81.2%
Terrace Marshall Jr	17.1%	53.1%
Robby Anderson	8.6%	81.2%

Quick Hit: Depending on the size of your league, Terrace Marshall might not be available. His snap share is discouraging, but the target share should put him on your watch list. Robby Anderson is one the biggest fantasy disappointments from a target share standpoint given his draft capital this summer. The silver lining was the touchdown and snap share. Hopefully we see a target increase in the coming weeks, or we might be writing about him as a sell high-candidate soon following his TD production. I will be sitting him this week in one of my leagues with more reliable options on the bench.

Chicago Bears

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Allen Robinson	27.5%	91.3%
Darnell Mooney	17.5%	100%
Cole Kmet	17.%	73.9%
Damien Williams	12.5%	43.5%
Marquise Goodwin	10%	37.7%

Quick Hit: Unless the Bears are intentionally tanking, Justin Fields will be the Bears saving grace sooner rather than later. Kmet should be owned in every format. Robinson and Mooney have better days ahead. Add Robinson to your buy-low radar. If RB Damien Williams can sustain his usage, he will be worth a stash in deeper PPR formats. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Ja’Marr Chase	25.9%	89.9%
Tee Higgins	18.5%	73.9%
Joe Mixon	14.8%	78.3%
Tyler Boyd	14.8%	73.9%
Mike Thomas	11.1%	23.2%

Quick Hit: Chase is putting in his bid for this season’s Justin Jefferson. Boyd will have better days: he and Higgins will most likely see-saw in fantasy production over the course of the season. Mike Thomas reached over 10% TS, but barely saw the field. He might become fantasy relevant if we get an injury to Boyd, Chase, Higgins. 

Cleveland Browns

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Jarvis Landry	17.9%	86.4%
David Njoku	17.9%	59.5%
Anthony Schwartz	17.9%	52.5%
Austin Hooper	10.7%	64.4%
Kareem Hunt	10.7%	47.5%

Quick Hit: This offense doesn’t pass enough to get overly excited. Odell Beckham will only throw a wrench in everyone’s production when he returns. Hooper and Njoku ownership numbers will continue to rise. Schwartz is taking advantage of his opportunity with OBJ out. 

Dallas Cowboys

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Amari Cooper	27.6%	89.2%
CeeDee Lamb	25.9%	73.5%
Michael Gallup	12%	60.2%
Dalton Shultz	10.3%	68.7%

Quick Hit: Cedrick Wilson will be a name to watch with Gallup on IR. If you need a TE, consider Dalton a weekly plug-in. Nothing more needs to be said about Cooper and Lamb.

Denver Broncos

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Noah Fant	22.2%	77.3%
Jerry Jeudy	19.4%	47%
Tim Patrick	11.1%	69.7%
KJ Hamler	11.1%	36.4%
Courtland Sutton	8.3%	80.3%

Quick Hit: I shed a tear when Jeudy went down with his high ankle sprain, thankfully it wasn’t a fracture. I am interested in both Patrick and Hamler as replacements. Patrick is ahead in my waiver priorities. Sutton will reach double-digit TS this weekend. 

Detroit Lions

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
T.J. Hockenson	17.5%	84.8%
D’Andre Swift	19.3%	68.5%
Jamaal Williams	15.8%	34.8%
Quintez Cephus	12.3%	34.8%
Trinity Benson	10.5%	53.3%

Quick Hit: Kalif Raymond registered a 75% SS followed by rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown with 64.1%, but both fell below 7.1% TS. We need to see if there is any consistency week-to-week with target and snap shares before we can trust any DET WR near a lineup. Hockenson was the mid-round TE to have week 1.

Green Bay Packers

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Devante Adams	25%	70.2%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	25%	63.2%
Allen Lazard	14.3%	68.4%
Robert Tonyan	14.3%	49.1%
Malik Taylor	10.7%	26.3%

Quick Hits: After GBs embarrassing “Game of the Week” loss, the 2020 NFL MVP and this offense can only go up from here. MVS should be rostered in more leagues following his week 1 TS and SS numbers.  Monitor how Cobbs’ role develops. Taylor only hits the report by inching over double-digit TS. His SS makes him not worthy of a roster spot.

Houston Texans

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Brandin Cooks	21.2%	78.2%
Pharaoh Brown	15.2%	75.6%
Danny Amendola	15.2%	21.8%
David Johnson	12.1%	78.%

Quick Hits: Pharaoh Brown finished as a back end TE1. Can he repeat in week 2? The usage suggests it’s probable. Danny Amendola needs to be on the field more before he should hit any waiver report. Cooks was one of the biggest WR value this year, hopefully you got a couple of shares. 

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Nyheim Hines	21.1%	44.7%
Jonathan Taylor	18.9%	55.3%
Zach Pascal	13.2%	90.8%
Michael Pittman Jr	10.5%	97.4%
Jack Doyle	10.5%	59.2%

Quick Hit: Is Pascal WR1 for Carson Wentz? Don’t bail on Pittman just yet. Doyle and Moe-Ali Cox will only continue to eat into each other snaps, keep them on waivers. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
DJ Chark Jr.	17.6%	83.8%
Marvin Jones Jr.	17.6%	90.5%
Laviska Shenault Jr.	17.6%	70.3%
James O’Shaughnessy	15.7%	79.7%
James Robinson	11.8%	63.5%

Quick Hit: Hopefully this ship doesn’t implode before it takes off. Trevor Lawrence tied for 4th in week 1 pass attempts. If the high volume continues, all three wideouts will continue to be relevant. O’Shaggs will get another chance to finish as a top 12 TE. Can we just get rid of the TE spot on our rosters? Let’s make it a movement, just add another flex. Who’s with me? Create the hashtag please. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Tyreek Hill	41.6%	72.3%
Travis Kelce	19.4%	84.6%

Quick Hit: That’s the list, no need to mention anyone else. Robinson finished ahead of Hardman in SS, can’t trust either. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Keenan Allen	27.7%	82.7%
Mike Williams	25.5%	75.3%
Jared Cook	17%	58%
Jalen Guyton	10.6%	65.4%

Quick Hit: Mike Williams is happening. Can he stay healthy? Jalen Guyton seems to be the next man up if an injury happens to KA or MW – #GMG.

Los Angeles Rams

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Cooper Kupp	38.5%	94.2%
Robert Woods	15.4%	76.9%
Van Jefferson	11.5%	69.2%
Tyler Higbee	23.1%	100%

Quick Hit: To quote The Talented Mr. Roto, “My little Cooper Kupp.” Wow, it wasn’t just a Jared Goff thing. Luckily Woods found the endzone, the usage is settling. Jefferson might be too up and down to trust weekly, he’s on my watch list in 10-12 man leagues. Higbee, another mid-round TE hit. 

Miami Dolphins

Player	Target Share	Snap share
DeVante Parker	25.9%	83.3%
Jaylen Waddle	22.2%	79.6%
Myles Gaskin	18.5%	53.7%
Salvon Ahmed	11.1%	20.4%

Quick Hit: Parker – another later round WR value. Waddle is competing with Ja’Mar Chase for this years’ Justin Jefferson award. Ahmed is merely a handcuff with his low snap share. 

Minnesota Vikings

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Adam Thielen	20.4%	94%
Justin Jefferson	18.4%	91.6%
K.J. Osborn	18.4%	80.7%
Dalvin Cook	14.3%	71.1%

Quick Hit: 7th in week 1 pass attempts, can Cousins sustain the volume to support a 3rd fantasy relevant WR in MIN? Osborn is a popular waiver add this week. Thielen was undervalued…again. 

New England Patriots

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Jakobi Meyers	23.1%	98.7%
Nelson Agholor	18%	85.3%
James White	17.9%	37.3#
Jonnu Smith	12.8%	73.3%

Quick Hit: This is a run-first offense, but Jones still finished top 10 in pass attempts in week 1. Agholor’s 10.3 ADOT is more than double Meyers’ 4.9, making him the more attractive fantasy asset. Jonnu won the TE battle this week, but finished nearly even in snaps with Henry. Be wary of weekly back and forth between the two TE.

New Orleans Saints

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Adam Trautman	28.6%	82.3%
Alvin Kamara	19%	72.6%
Juwan Johnson	14.3%	19.4%

Quick Hit: Yikes, only 2 targets for Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris. Trautman lived up to the offseason buzz with his usage, not in fantasy points. Your league-mates will chase Johnson’s production, but his snap share presents a possible trap. If you have the room, sneak Trautman on your roster if he slipped to the waiver wire. 

New York Giants

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Sterling Shepard	24.3%	95.1%
Darius Slayton	18.9%	70.5%
Kenny Golladay	16.2%	85.2%
Kyle Rudolph	13.5%	77%

Quick Hit: Sterling Shepard should be rostered in 100% of fantasy leagues. SS suggests Golladay over Slayton. Darius might carry low-end flex value if his usage continues. 

New York Jets

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Corey Davis	18.9%	89.2%
Braxton Berrios	18.9%	56.9%
Elijah Moore	10.8%	86.2%
Ryan Griffin	16.2%	47.7%
Tyler Kroft	13.5%	66.2%

Quick Hits: Berrios has the most to lose when Jamison Crowder returns from the COVID list. Don’t overreact to his double-digit fantasy outing. Can’t trust either TE.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
DeVonta Smith	22.9%	87.3%
Jalen Reagor	17.1%	70.4%
Dallas Goedert	14.3%	73.2%
Miles Sanders	14.3%	66.2%

Quick Hit: Fly Eagles Fly! All of the above should be on a fantasy roster. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Diontae Johnson	31.3%	75.9%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	25%	91.4%
Chase Claypool	15.6%	67.2%

Quick Hit: JuJu’s abysmal ADOT is frightening, but his usage indicates better days. Claypool’s ability to sustain consistent week-to-week production is a concern if his usage remains. 

Seattle Seahawks

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
DK Metcalf	21.7%	92.6%
Tyler Lockett	21.7%	85.2%
Chris Carson	13%	77.8%
Will Dissly	13%	70.4%

Quick Hit: More Moon balls please! TE Gerald Everett found the end zone, but Dissly led in usage. Don’t trust either in a lineup, but it’s worth monitoring. 

San Francisco 49ers

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Deebo Samuel	46.2%	83.6%
George Kittle	19.2%	94.5%
Trent Sheffield	11.5%	49.1%

Quick Hit: Is Deebo back from the grave? Hold off on Sheffield, unless you’re desperate. 2 catches for 23 yards is not worth a waiver claim. The TD masks his unreliable usage. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Chris Godwin	28%	98.5%
Rob Gronkowski	16%	87.7%
Antonio Brown	14%	64.6%
Leonard Fournette	14%	64.6%
Mike Evans	12%	93.8%

Quick Hit: GOAT! Mike Evans might be a buy-low trade candidate if his snaps remain and targets increase. Brown truthers will continue to take victory laps, but his snap share is concerning. god-wins.

Tennesse Titans

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
A.J. Brown	22.9%	81.2%
Julio Jones	17.1%	78.1%
Chester Rogers	17.1%	60.9%
Anthony Firkser	11.4%	48.4%

Quick Hit: Don’t give up on Jones, yet. Let’s see if Rogers can repeat for a second week before we consider adding him. What the Firkser, man. Not rostering him in 1TE leagues.

Washington Football Team 

Player	Target Share	Snap Share
Antonio Gibson	23.8%	65.5%
Terry McLaurin	19%	100%
Dyami Brown	19%	92.7%
Logan Thomas	14.3%	100%

Quick Hit: Hold your Heini. Let’s pray Heinicke can sustain McLaurin and Thomas in the passing game before we decide on adding Brown.