Fantasy draft day and week 1 of the NFL season rival the childhood joys of waking up on Christmas morning or the first day of summer break. Fans are back in the stands, football is back and week 1 lived up to the hype. 

It is important we do not overreact to the small sample size of week 1. Taking inventory of target trends is a critical tool to help with lineup decisions as the season progresses. Keep in mind, knowing target share (TS) trends can help provide a framework for buy-low and sell high trade candidates. Every Wednesday I will provide you with a weekly target report, highlighting key TS data and takeaways from the weekend. 

Success in fantasy football is built around opportunity, and consistent opportunity. It is important not to overreact to a poor fantasy outing when the usage is still there. If you are new to target share (TS) data, below is a breakdown of my TS tiers. 

  • Set-it and forget-it : Target share > (greater than) 20%. Any pass catcher receiving over 20% TS should remain in lineups, even following an off-week in fantasy production. I consider any player over 25% TS an elite fantasy asset.
  • WR 2-3 and Flex range:  Target share 15-19%. We should feel confident leaving these players in a 2nd or 3rd WR/RB or flex spot. Depending on the offense, this might be the highest range we see a player in a run-heavy scheme (i.e. week 1 Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns). 15% TS is my “Mason-Dixon line” when it comes to fantasy assets that I am interested in rostering or not. 
  • Getting Desperate range – Risky Business: Target share 10-14%. You will see players in this range pop in fantasy production, but don’t be fooled into relying on consistent weekly production. These players are viable options when our rosters are thin with BYE weeks or have multiple players out with injuries. Low-end fantasy relevant TE’s usually fall in this range. 
  • Fool’s Gold : Target share < (less than) 10%. Leave these players on the waivers. Let your ill-informed league-mates waste precious waivers claims and FAAB $$ OR use these players as trade bait. We will not waste word count on these players in the weekly target report. We can have a player in this range produce for one week, but I would not trust them in any lineup. Only for the deepest of leagues or desperate of plays. 

Another data point that will be referenced weekly in the Target Report is snap share (SS). This represents the percentage of offensive snaps the player was on the field. Taking note of SS trends will assist us in identifying players that are worth putting in waiver claims for or to drop. 

Arizona Cardinals

Player Target Share Snap Share
Deandre Hopkins 25% 88.4%
A.J. Green 18.8% 79.7%
Christian Kirk 15.6% 56.5%
Rondale Moore 15.6% 29%
Chase Edmonds 12.5% 58%

Quick Hit: No debate, Nuk is elite. Figuring out the 2nd reliable fantasy WR in this offense will be the trick. Kirk and Moore led Green in fantasy production, but trailed significantly in SS. Hard to trust any of the three on a weekly basis, but owning a piece of this offense is intriguing. We need to keep an eye on how these numbers trend over the next couple of weeks. Moore will be a popular wavier add. Hold your shares on Green, but another dud and he might be drop worthy. Running back Chase Edmonds’ usage is a win for “zero-rb” truthers. 

Atlanta Falcons

Player Target Share Snap Share
Calvin Ridley 22.9% 84.7%
Kyle Pitts 22.9% 68.1%
Mike Davis 17.1% 75%
Hayden Hurst 11.4% 59.5%

Quick Hit: The Eagles shut out Atlanta after putting together a couple of promising drives early in the game that only netted two field goals. Expect better days from Ridley and Pitts. Consider them week 1 buy-low candidates. My summer infatuation, Russell Gage, failed to register even the smallest blip on the radar. Davis’ passing game usage is promising. We need to monitor how Wayne Gallman fits in when acclimated to his new surroundings. Hurst might become a desperation TE play, if his usage holds.

Buffalo Bills

Player Target Share Snap Share
Stefon Diggs 27.5% 92.9%
Cole Beasley 25.% 90.6%
Emmanuel Sanders 15.7% 92.9%

Quick Hit: Gabriel Davis needs to see a significant increase in targets and snaps to be worth a waiver add. By my scale, Beasley is a viable every-week starter. BUF is one of the leagues heaviest passing offenses. Josh Allen tied for 4th most pass attempts week 1 (51). Emmanuel Sanders is worth a bench spot in PPR leagues. 

Carolina Panthers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Christian McCaffrey 25.7% 89.1%
DJ Moore 22.9% 81.2%
Terrace Marshall Jr 17.1% 53.1%
Robby Anderson 8.6% 81.2%

Quick Hit: Depending on the size of your league, Terrace Marshall might not be available. His snap share is discouraging, but the target share should put him on your watch list. Robby Anderson is one the biggest fantasy disappointments from a target share standpoint given his draft capital this summer. The silver lining was the touchdown and snap share. Hopefully we see a target increase in the coming weeks, or we might be writing about him as a sell high-candidate soon following his TD production. I will be sitting him this week in one of my leagues with more reliable options on the bench.

Chicago Bears

Player Target Share Snap Share
Allen Robinson 27.5% 91.3%
Darnell Mooney 17.5% 100%
Cole Kmet 17.% 73.9%
Damien Williams 12.5% 43.5%
Marquise Goodwin 10% 37.7%

Quick Hit: Unless the Bears are intentionally tanking, Justin Fields will be the Bears saving grace sooner rather than later. Kmet should be owned in every format. Robinson and Mooney have better days ahead. Add Robinson to your buy-low radar. If RB Damien Williams can sustain his usage, he will be worth a stash in deeper PPR formats. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Player Target Share Snap Share
Ja’Marr Chase 25.9% 89.9%
Tee Higgins 18.5% 73.9%
Joe Mixon 14.8% 78.3%
Tyler Boyd 14.8% 73.9%
Mike Thomas 11.1% 23.2%

Quick Hit: Chase is putting in his bid for this season’s Justin Jefferson. Boyd will have better days: he and Higgins will most likely see-saw in fantasy production over the course of the season. Mike Thomas reached over 10% TS, but barely saw the field. He might become fantasy relevant if we get an injury to Boyd, Chase, Higgins. 

Cleveland Browns

Player Target Share Snap Share
Jarvis Landry 17.9% 86.4%
David Njoku 17.9% 59.5%
Anthony Schwartz 17.9% 52.5%
Austin Hooper 10.7% 64.4%
Kareem Hunt 10.7% 47.5%

Quick Hit: This offense doesn’t pass enough to get overly excited. Odell Beckham will only throw a wrench in everyone’s production when he returns. Hooper and Njoku ownership numbers will continue to rise. Schwartz is taking advantage of his opportunity with OBJ out. 

Dallas Cowboys

Player Target Share Snap Share
Amari Cooper 27.6% 89.2%
CeeDee Lamb 25.9% 73.5%
Michael Gallup 12% 60.2%
Dalton Shultz 10.3% 68.7%

Quick Hit: Cedrick Wilson will be a name to watch with Gallup on IR. If you need a TE, consider Dalton a weekly plug-in. Nothing more needs to be said about Cooper and Lamb.

Denver Broncos

Player Target Share Snap Share
Noah Fant 22.2% 77.3%
Jerry Jeudy 19.4% 47%
Tim Patrick 11.1% 69.7%
KJ Hamler 11.1% 36.4%
Courtland Sutton 8.3% 80.3%

Quick Hit: I shed a tear when Jeudy went down with his high ankle sprain, thankfully it wasn’t a fracture. I am interested in both Patrick and Hamler as replacements. Patrick is ahead in my waiver priorities. Sutton will reach double-digit TS this weekend. 

Detroit Lions

Player Target Share Snap Share
T.J. Hockenson 17.5% 84.8%
D’Andre Swift 19.3% 68.5%
Jamaal Williams 15.8% 34.8%
Quintez Cephus 12.3% 34.8%
Trinity Benson 10.5% 53.3%

Quick Hit: Kalif Raymond registered a 75% SS followed by rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown with 64.1%, but both fell below 7.1% TS. We need to see if there is any consistency week-to-week with target and snap shares before we can trust any DET WR near a lineup. Hockenson was the mid-round TE to have week 1.

Green Bay Packers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Devante Adams 25% 70.2%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 25% 63.2%
Allen Lazard 14.3% 68.4%
Robert Tonyan 14.3% 49.1%
Malik Taylor 10.7% 26.3%

Quick Hits: After GBs embarrassing “Game of the Week” loss, the 2020 NFL MVP and this offense can only go up from here. MVS should be rostered in more leagues following his week 1 TS and SS numbers.  Monitor how Cobbs’ role develops. Taylor only hits the report by inching over double-digit TS. His SS makes him not worthy of a roster spot.

Houston Texans

Player Target Share Snap Share
Brandin Cooks 21.2% 78.2%
Pharaoh Brown  15.2% 75.6%
Danny Amendola 15.2% 21.8%
David Johnson 12.1% 78.%

Quick Hits: Pharaoh Brown finished as a back end TE1. Can he repeat in week 2? The usage suggests it’s probable. Danny Amendola needs to be on the field more before he should hit any waiver report. Cooks was one of the biggest WR value this year, hopefully you got a couple of shares. 

Indianapolis Colts

Player Target Share Snap Share
Nyheim Hines 21.1% 44.7%
Jonathan Taylor 18.9% 55.3%
Zach Pascal 13.2% 90.8%
Michael Pittman Jr 10.5% 97.4%
Jack Doyle 10.5% 59.2%

Quick Hit: Is Pascal WR1 for Carson Wentz? Don’t bail on Pittman just yet. Doyle and Moe-Ali Cox will only continue to eat into each other snaps, keep them on waivers. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Target Share Snap Share
DJ Chark Jr. 17.6% 83.8%
Marvin Jones Jr. 17.6% 90.5%
Laviska Shenault Jr. 17.6% 70.3%
James O’Shaughnessy 15.7% 79.7%
James Robinson 11.8% 63.5%

Quick Hit: Hopefully this ship doesn’t implode before it takes off. Trevor Lawrence tied for 4th in week 1 pass attempts. If the high volume continues, all three wideouts will continue to be relevant. O’Shaggs will get another chance to finish as a top 12 TE. Can we just get rid of the TE spot on our rosters? Let’s make it a movement, just add another flex. Who’s with me? Create the hashtag please. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Player Target Share Snap Share
Tyreek Hill 41.6% 72.3%
Travis Kelce 19.4% 84.6%

Quick Hit: That’s the list, no need to mention anyone else. Robinson finished ahead of Hardman in SS, can’t trust either. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Keenan Allen 27.7% 82.7%
Mike Williams 25.5% 75.3%
Jared Cook 17% 58%
Jalen Guyton 10.6% 65.4%

Quick Hit: Mike Williams is happening. Can he stay healthy? Jalen Guyton seems to be the next man up if an injury happens to KA or MW – #GMG.

Los Angeles Rams

Player Target Share Snap Share
Cooper Kupp 38.5% 94.2%
Robert Woods  15.4% 76.9%
Van Jefferson 11.5% 69.2%
Tyler Higbee 23.1% 100%

Quick Hit: To quote The Talented Mr. Roto, “My little Cooper Kupp.” Wow, it wasn’t just a Jared Goff thing. Luckily Woods found the endzone, the usage is settling. Jefferson might be too up and down to trust weekly, he’s on my watch list in 10-12 man leagues. Higbee, another mid-round TE hit. 

Miami Dolphins

Player Target Share Snap share
DeVante Parker 25.9% 83.3%
Jaylen Waddle 22.2% 79.6%
Myles Gaskin 18.5% 53.7%
Salvon Ahmed 11.1% 20.4%

Quick Hit: Parker – another later round WR value. Waddle is competing with Ja’Mar Chase for this years’ Justin Jefferson award. Ahmed is merely a handcuff with his low snap share. 

Minnesota Vikings

Player Target Share Snap Share
Adam Thielen 20.4% 94%
Justin Jefferson 18.4% 91.6%
K.J. Osborn 18.4% 80.7%
Dalvin Cook 14.3% 71.1%

Quick Hit: 7th in week 1 pass attempts, can Cousins sustain the volume to support a 3rd fantasy relevant WR in MIN? Osborn is a popular waiver add this week. Thielen was undervalued…again. 

New England Patriots

Player Target Share Snap Share
Jakobi Meyers 23.1% 98.7%
Nelson Agholor 18% 85.3%
James White 17.9% 37.3#
Jonnu Smith 12.8% 73.3%

Quick Hit: This is a run-first offense, but Jones still finished top 10 in pass attempts in week 1. Agholor’s 10.3 ADOT is more than double Meyers’ 4.9, making him the more attractive fantasy asset. Jonnu won the TE battle this week, but finished nearly even in snaps with Henry. Be wary of weekly back and forth between the two TE.

New Orleans Saints

Player Target Share Snap Share
Adam Trautman 28.6% 82.3%
Alvin Kamara 19% 72.6%
Juwan Johnson 14.3% 19.4%

Quick Hit: Yikes, only 2 targets for Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris. Trautman lived up to the offseason buzz with his usage, not in fantasy points. Your league-mates will chase Johnson’s production, but his snap share presents a possible trap. If you have the room, sneak Trautman on your roster if he slipped to the waiver wire. 

New York Giants

Player Target Share Snap Share
Sterling Shepard 24.3% 95.1%
Darius Slayton 18.9% 70.5%
Kenny Golladay 16.2% 85.2%
Kyle Rudolph 13.5% 77%

Quick Hit: Sterling Shepard should be rostered in 100% of fantasy leagues. SS suggests Golladay over Slayton. Darius might carry low-end flex value if his usage continues. 

New York Jets

Player Target Share Snap Share
Corey Davis 18.9% 89.2%
Braxton Berrios 18.9% 56.9%
Elijah Moore 10.8% 86.2%
Ryan Griffin 16.2% 47.7%
Tyler Kroft 13.5% 66.2%

Quick Hits: Berrios has the most to lose when Jamison Crowder returns from the COVID list. Don’t overreact to his double-digit fantasy outing. Can’t trust either TE.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player Target Share Snap Share
DeVonta Smith 22.9% 87.3%
Jalen Reagor 17.1% 70.4%
Dallas Goedert 14.3% 73.2%
Miles Sanders 14.3% 66.2%

Quick Hit: Fly Eagles Fly! All of the above should be on a fantasy roster. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Diontae Johnson 31.3% 75.9%
JuJu Smith-Schuster 25% 91.4%
Chase Claypool 15.6% 67.2%

Quick Hit: JuJu’s abysmal ADOT is frightening, but his usage indicates better days. Claypool’s ability to sustain consistent week-to-week production is a concern if his usage remains. 

Seattle Seahawks

Player Target Share Snap Share
DK Metcalf 21.7% 92.6%
Tyler Lockett 21.7% 85.2%
Chris Carson 13% 77.8%
Will Dissly 13% 70.4%

Quick Hit: More Moon balls please! TE Gerald Everett found the end zone, but Dissly led in usage. Don’t trust either in a lineup, but it’s worth monitoring. 

San Francisco 49ers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Deebo Samuel 46.2% 83.6%
George Kittle 19.2% 94.5%
Trent Sheffield 11.5% 49.1%

Quick Hit: Is Deebo back from the grave? Hold off on Sheffield, unless you’re desperate. 2 catches for 23 yards is not worth a waiver claim. The TD masks his unreliable usage. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Player Target Share Snap Share
Chris Godwin 28% 98.5%
Rob Gronkowski 16% 87.7%
Antonio Brown  14% 64.6%
Leonard Fournette 14% 64.6%
Mike Evans 12% 93.8%

Quick Hit: GOAT! Mike Evans might be a buy-low trade candidate if his snaps remain and targets increase. Brown truthers will continue to take victory laps, but his snap share is concerning. god-wins.

Tennesse Titans

Player Target Share Snap Share
A.J. Brown 22.9% 81.2%
Julio Jones 17.1% 78.1%
Chester Rogers 17.1% 60.9%
Anthony Firkser 11.4% 48.4%

Quick Hit: Don’t give up on Jones, yet. Let’s see if Rogers can repeat for a second week before we consider adding him. What the Firkser, man. Not rostering him in 1TE leagues.

Washington Football Team 

Player Target Share Snap Share
Antonio Gibson 23.8% 65.5%
Terry McLaurin 19% 100%
Dyami Brown 19% 92.7%
Logan Thomas 14.3% 100%

Quick Hit: Hold your Heini. Let’s pray Heinicke can sustain McLaurin and Thomas in the passing game before we decide on adding Brown. 

  1. Roto-Wan

    Roto-Wan says:
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    The Russell Gage gage: 0.

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      only up from here, am i right?

  2. Kevin says:
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    What about Baltimore? I didn’t see their stats on here. Did I miss something?? Thanks!

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      finished my article before MNF numbers posted. here you go!
      * Ty’Son 13.3% TS / 51.5% SS
      * Patrick Ricard 10% TS / 60.3% SS
      * Sammy 26.7% TS / 82.4% SS
      * Marquise Brown 20% / 69.1% SS
      * Mark Andrews 16.7% / 80.9% SS

      • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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        can LV be input same manner then be complete. andrews bumps up when watkins gets hurt of course (depending somewhat on when bateman gets in there)

        • Nic Romero

          Nic Romero says:
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          here you go! yes, it’ll be interesting to see how Bateman impacts the opportunity. Offense still runs through LJ, the backs and Waller. here you go

          * Drake 8.9% TS / 47.7% SS
          * Renfrow 16% TS / 54.7% SS
          * Edwards 8.9% TS / 66.3% SS
          * Ruggs 8.9% TS / 65.1% SS
          * Waller 19% TS / 94.2% SS

          • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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            drake/watkins on the up (andrews too) if these jacobs/m.brown things linger.

  3. JC says:
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    1/2 PPR league.
    My Mike Willams and Tevin for his Sermon and Pittman?
    My Squad below:

    RBs: Carson, Gibson
    WRs: Adams, M Williams
    Flex: M Gordon
    BenchL OBJ, Jakobi, Claypool, Teviin, Mike Carter

    • JC says:
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      forgot to add I also own Latavius

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        I rather have the Mike Williams side. I’d be interested in the Sermn/Pittman side if it was a Devy league. For a 1 year season long league, i’m keeping Mikey.

  4. Donkey Teeth

    Donkey Teeth says:
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    This stuff is awesome, so much useful info!

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      thank you DT

      • ivthoughts says:
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        was going to comment the same thing Donkey Teeth said. Will be looking forward to this every week.

        • Nic Romero

          Nic Romero says:
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          thanks for reading!

  5. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    this is good stuff, all teams in one spot, not just some (like an article showing the top 5 most surprising ones)

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      targets + snap share too, as one good week of targets doesn’t necessarily correlate to future, but in tandem probably highly does or at least sometimes could.

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        I appreciate it, thanks for reading!. yes, both are valuable tools when looked at together. it’ll be fun to watch how things trend over the next couple of weeks

  6. JC says:
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    Love this intel. Thank you. 1/2 PPR league.

    OBJ to my IR slot. So a freebie off the wire. Thinking more mid to long term, who would you prefer to ride my bench for awhile but could provide depth for bye weeks and maybe pop down the road:

    Ingram, Shepard, Patrick, Hyde, Pascal, Kirk, Gallman, E Sanders, Damien Williams, V Jefferson – or I could grab Winston for a possible trade down the road.

    Secondly, you buying the Cards D as a top ten unit?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      Sanders (pass heavy bills offense, usage screamed at us, question is if Sanders still has the juice) > Shepard > Patrick (for the next 6-8 weeks) > Pascal (could change after how TS and SS trend over the next few weeks in Indy, but he was WR1 last week. popped a couple of times last year with Rivers at the helm too, so not to “flukey”) > Kirk > Van Jefferson (would need an injury to kupp/woods to be a consistent play down the road) > Ingram > D Will > Hyde > Gallman. all of the RB disgust me, even long term. basically hoping for injury to RB1. DST so volatile, but they have playmakers at all levels of the D. play in a tough division tho, probably end up streaming those weeks anyway, unless they prove to be an elite defensive unit.

  7. JC says:
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    Best WW add in 1/2 PPR league:
    Z Moss, James White, Marquez Callaway, Carlos Hyde, Sammy Watkiins, Tim Patrick or Tevin Coleman?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      Tim Patrick!!!

  8. tooearlytotrade? says:
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    Nice post, very informational.

    I’m in a trade happy league-which I enjoy!- its a keeper league where you can keep 3 players and each player can be kept maximum of 2 times. 12 team superflex 1.0 ppr

    That said, I’ve been proposed something interestin.

    I give: $39 Dak Prescott, $42 Saquon (can be kept 1 more time), and one of the following: Chark/Callaway/Fuller

    I get: $1 Jalen Hurts, $4 Trey Lance, and one of the following: Marquise Brown, Brandin Cooks.

    I’m not big on it, I like Hurts but doubt Trey Lance gets much run so long as the 49ers are winning. my other qb is herbert, rb are swift, sanders, murray, WR:DJ. moore/golladay/chark/fuller/callaway

    I was thinking of countering with Dak/Saquon/ and a WR for Hurts/ chase edmonds/cooks

    thanks for the piece. I really am trying to get brandin cooks as I fear my wr core is weak (moore/golladay/chark/fuller/callaway)

    BEst!

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      Honestly, i like you end of the deal. Hurts and Lance are great keeper assets. I feel like with Dan and Saquon you should be able to get a slightly higher profile WR in return. If they won’t budge, i rather have Cooks over Brown. I don’t expect Lance to be an impact right away, but huge chance he’s starting by the end of the season. Would be great value heading into next year. I love Brandin Cooks this season, have him in multiple leagues. if you’re feeling it, i say do it!

  9. Jack says:
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    I’m in painful need of depth as I’ve already lost Mostert, Juedy and Curtis Samuel

    Right now I’m looking at Lockett for DJ Moore and one of

    Corey Davis
    Davonta Smith

    I hate giving away the best player and I personally feel strongly that he is, but many people have DJ right there (including Donkey Teeth). What’s your take on this matter?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      if im understanding this correctly, giving up Lockett FOR DJ Moore AND SMitth-OR-Davis. i hate acting out of desperation, but understand if you are dead in the water with the rest of your roster given the slew of injuries. i like Smith over Davis, just trust the offense and QB more at this point. Lockett is def a league winner, but if you dont have starting caliber players to put in your lineup around i guesss it doesn’t matter. i think you can do it, Lockett for Moore/Smith. what did DT say about this?

      • Logan says:
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        He’s lower on Lockett than most, with him right next to Moore, and said it’s because of some justified bias from having him last year and seeing his remarkable boom or bust nature for two years. My take is…new coordinator, more short passing, I never have been a big Schottenheimer fan, and the safety over Moore of a great QB attached (maybe up to 6 more TDS). I think he’s much better than Moore based on those things…basically he’s a gold WR2 with potential to finish top 12, whereas DJ will probably finish at 20-25 like the last two seasons. I am super super high on Smith though, he might be a 90 reception guy based on target share and that they won’t always be playing ahead.

        He said even with his hesitancy on Lockett, though, it’s not a slam dunk trade in his eyes.

        For context, I didn’t just lose those guys but also have Sermon who isn’t giving me anything…right now my flex is between Waddle, Callaway, and Tim Patrick…and I do not feel like having to watch them start week after week. I think Davonta is a good to go starting flex, high end WR3 all season.

  10. Nic Romero

    Nic Romero says:
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    if im understanding this correctly, giving up Lockett FOR DJ Moore AND SMitth-OR-Davis. i hate acting out of desperation, but understand if you are dead in the water with the rest of your roster given the slew of injuries. i like Smith over Davis, just trust the offense and QB more at this point. Lockett is def a league winner, but if you dont have starting caliber players to put in your lineup around i guesss it doesn’t matter. i think you can do it, Lockett for Moore/Smith. what does DT say about this?

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