The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 10

 

Team: Washington Football Team

Opponent: Detroit Lions

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	15	4.9	72.7	0.5	12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage	7	5	74.3	0.4	12.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.

Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets in week 9. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800

On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week I would pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.

 

Team: New York Giants

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Darius Slayton

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

 

Darius Slayton vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	21	3.7	56.2	0.5	10.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage	2	2	25.5	0	3.6
vs. Darius Slay	1	2	23	0	3.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

This shadow coverage matchup will be a re-match from week 7 where Slay completely shut down Slayton holding him to 2-23. Overall, this season Slay has held WRs in his shadow coverage to just 6 PPG in .5 PPR. Meanwhile Slayton has seen his production dip over the past few weeks with Sterling Shepard now pacing the team in targets.

Week 9 Recommendation – Sit

Similar to their week 7 matchup I expect Slay to follow Slayton once again this week. Slay has proven multiple times this year to slow down top WRs and Slayton hasn’t seen the targets over the past few games to justify starting him in week 10. If you’re desperate at WR K.J. Hamler vs. LV and Jalen Reagor vs. NYG are lower owned players you can pivot too.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $5,900 / Draft Kings (DK) $4,800

At this point it seems like both sites are starting to catch on as Slayton’s price continues to tumble. This is something to keep any eye on for future weeks as Slayton is starting to become a value. This week isn’t the week to take a shot on him as his limited upside vs. Slay doesn’t justify getting him in your DFS lineups.

 

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: D.J. Chark

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	19	5	70.9	0.6	13.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage	3	3.7	32.3	0	5.1

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Last week the healthy scratch of Bradley Roby vaulted D.J. Chark from fringe WR3 to a legit WR1. Earlier this year Roby held Chark to just 3-16 on 4 targets so Roby not being on the field was huge for Chark. Chark has proven time and time again that he can beat up on weaker corners which was on display vs. Houston going for 7-146-1. This week we have a very similar situation as Green Bay’s top CB Jaire Alexander is questionable with a concussion.

Week 9 Recommendation – Start/Sit

Ok, lets all just calm down since I know a lot of people just skim the article and will leave a comment like WTF this guy is a clown you can’t start and sit a guy. Before you screen shot the article and shame me on twitter hear me out. If Jaire Alexander is in, the recommendation will be to sit D.J. Chark as his struggles vs. top shadow CBs is well documented. If Alexander is out, Chark becomes a solid play as no other CB on the team will be able to slow down Chark.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $6,600 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,200

On both sites Chark is priced as a top 20 option which means in order for him to return value he will need to repeat his week 9 performance. If Alexander plays we all know to pivot from Chark; however, if he is out I would still look else where. Green Bay on the season has been much tougher vs. out side WRs than Houston so I don’t expect him to repeat the 7-146-1 performance even if Alexander is out. Players I would play over Chark in DFS include Mike Evans vs. CAR (DK) and Tyler Boyd vs. PIT (FD).

 

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Tre’Davious White

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	25	7.5	96.8	0.4	16.1
Vs. Shadow Coverage	17	6.5	76.2	0.6	14.4
vs. Tre’Davious White	2	5.5	76.5	0.5	13.4

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

DeAndre Hopkins has been one of the most shadowed WRs over the previous 2 seasons, but his week 10 matchup vs. Tre’Davious White will be his first as an Arizona Cardinal. In the prior two seasons not many CBs slowed down Hopkins as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers. This includes double digit points vs. top CBs Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore.  

Week 9 Recommendation – Start

DeAndre Hopkins has faced Tre’Davious White twice in his career going for (5-63-1) and 6-90). Now do those numbers scream blow up game, no but they are still very useful for season long leagues. This on top of the fact the Cardinals defense has been vulnerable the past few weeks means this game could see a lot of points. Overall, I doubt anyone will ever fade Hopkins and in this matchup neither would I.  

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $8,600 / Draft Kings (DK) $7,700

DeAndre Hopkins top 2 price tag might be too rich based on his historical production overall vs. White and Shadow coverage. In only 5 of the 17 games Hopkins has hit 20 points in .5 PPR which is what you will need to justify his lofty price tag on both sites. If you want a piece of Hopkins you can justify him on DK as it is full PPR, but overall I would pivot to other options. Player I like this week include Keenan Allen vs. MIA and Cooper Kupp vs. SEA.

 

Team: Buffalo Bills

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

WR1: Stefon Diggs

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Patrick Peterson

 

Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	33	6.1	79.1	0.5	13.7
Vs. Shadow Coverage	8	3.8	53.8	0.5	10.3
Vs. Patrick Peterson	1	3	33	0	4.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Stefon Diggs has exceeded expectations this season as he has become a dominate #1 WR in this offense. Diggs has produced vs. tougher defenses this season as he was able to get to at least 12 points vs. the Rams and Chiefs both who are two top 4 defenses vs. the WR. However, with all that being said, Diggs has yet to face shadow coverage vs. a top CB this season. Back in week 8 he was left at the alter by Stephon Gilmore as he did not play and in week 2 Bryon Jones said he wanted to see other people and left the game after only 3 plays.

Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

This season Patrick Peterson has been assigned to shadow three WRs including Terry McLaurin (7-125-1), D.K. Metcalf (2-23) and DeVante Parker (6-64). The McLaurin game makes Patrick Peterson looked washed, but when you dive into those numbers 60 yards and a score came when the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores in the fourth quarter. Now the reason why there is more optimism for Diggs vs. Patrick Peterson is his usage in the slot. This season over 30% of this targets and routes have come from the inside which means he will get away from Peterson enough to still be a season long must start this week.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,900 / Draft Kings (DK) $7,500

Stefon Diggs has rightfully so earned a top 5 price tag on both sites due to his play this season. Diggs in his career has only hit 20 points once in shadow coverage so his ceiling might be capped in this one. Pivoting to players like Keenan Allen vs. MIA and Cooper Kupp vs. SEA is recommended as they come with a lower price tags and a much better matchups this week.

 

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Marquise Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

 

Marquise Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	19	3.4	48.1	0.5	9.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage	3	4.3	3.7	0	4.8
Vs. Stephon Gilmore	1	3	48	0	6.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Before we get started while I am writing this article Stephon Gilmore was spotted on the practice field Friday so if gets a limited practice in then he should play. Now for Marquise Brown the number aren’t pretty for him vs. shadow coverage as he has yet to hit 50 yards or find the end zone in any game vs. shadow coverage. This includes a matchup vs. Stephon Gilmore last season.

Week 9 Recommendation – Sit

2020 hasn’t been that great for the Ravens pass game already and with a tough matchup vs. Gilmore on the docket this week, Brown is a sit. If for some reason Gilmore is out, Brown will be back on the WR3 map for this matchup. However, Brown hasn’t taken a big step forward this season only hitting double digit fantasy points 3 times this year. At this point in the season Brown hasn’t been a must start player on your team anyway and if Gilmore is in leave him on your bench

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $5,700 / Draft Kings (DK) $5,700

I mean….just don’t! If Brown was being valued outside of the top 40 WRs I would consider him a dart throw as he could get a long TD. However, even if he gets you 10-12 points this week, he still won’t return value on either site. Players I would pivot to include John Brown vs ARZ and K.J. Hamler vs. LV.

 

The Best Way to Beat Shadow Coverage….. A Quick Slant!

Jarvis Landry vs. Bradley Roby

Bradley Roby has shadowed a WR in almost every game in 2020; however, with Jarvis Landry kicking inside on nearly 50% of his snaps, he should see enough time away from Roby to make him a solid WR3 this week.

Eagles WRs Vs. James Bradberry

The last time these two teams faced off James Bradberry shadowed Desean Jackson. Now with Jackson out it’s anyone’s guess who Bradberry will be assigned to if anyone. Travis Fulgham makes the most sense, but with veteran Alshon Jeffery making his return he could get the nod. Jalen Reagor is my favorite among the three as he should see more time in the slot with Jeffery and Fulgham on the outside.

Panthers WRs vs. Buccaneers Secondary

No team has used shadow coverage all year on the Panthers since both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson deserve attention from top CBs. This was the case back in week 2 when they faced the Bucs as Carlton Davis wasn’t assigned to either player. Now both Anderson and Moore had productive days, but that production came in garbage time so it’s best to view both of these guys as a WR3/Flex and a DFS fade.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. Marshon Lattimore

Marshon Lattimore has only shadowed 1 WR all year and that was Mike Evans in week 1 and week 9. Even with Deebo Samuel ruled out we shouldn’t expect Aiyuk to get shadow coverage treatment in this game. With the 49ers as heavy underdogs on the road in New Orleans Aiyuk should be locked in as a solid WR3 as the 49ers will be expected to throw a lot this week.