Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 15
2 8
3 8
4+ 25
Grand Total 56

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New England

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

WR2: Christian Kirk

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

                                                 J.C. Jackson

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 17 6.5 76.2 0.6 14.4
vs. Stephon Gilmore 3 6.7 72.7 0 10.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

According to PFF this season DeAndre Hopkins has yet to face any shadow coverage in 2020. This comes after back to back seasons where he saw shadow coverage in 50% of his games.  This “softer” cornerback schedule has led to a solid season so far in 2020 as Hopkins is the WR7 in PPG. Overall, throughout his career Hopkins has been solid vs. shadow coverage as his 14.4 PPG is still borderline WR1 numbers.

As for Christian Kirk he has never seen shadow coverage in his career, but that doesn’t stop the Patriots from using shadow coverage on multiple players. In weeks 9 and 11 of 2020 the Patriots used multiple CBs to shadow the opposing teams WRs and in 2019 used Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in similar roles down the stretch.

Week 12 Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins – WR3/Flex

                                     Christian Kirk – SIT

Hopkins’ 10.6 vs. Stephon Gilmore doesn’t make him a sit, but tempering expectations on the road vs. the Patriots isn’t a bad idea. Hopkins has yet to score a TD or top 80 yards receiving in any of the games vs. Gilmore since he joined the Patriots back in 2017. These numbers leave Hopkins as solid WR2/flex in week 12.

As for Christian Kirk J.C. Jackson has been playing at a very high level slowing down a white-hot Will Fuller (6-80) while leading the NFL in interceptions so far in 2020. This season the Patriots have yet to allow a team to have multiple WRs hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR at home in 2020.

DFS Recommendation – DeAndre Hopkins Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,100

                                           Christian Kirk Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,800

Hopkins vs. Gilmore doesn’t equal DFS success as his 10 PPG will not justify his cost on both sites. At this price point you can pay up for Tyreek Hill in a game which should be a shootout in TB. As for Christian Kirk his price point on both sites is between WR 24-30, and with not a lot of WR success overall when the Patriots play at home its best to pivot. Players I would use over Kirk include DeVante Parker vs. NYJ and Curtis Samuel vs. MIN.

 

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: D.K. Metcalf

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

 

D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 18 4.4 75.1 0.7 13.7
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 3.3 51.4 0.5 9.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

We have finally seen a stretch of games where D.K. Metcalf has faced solid CBs and for the most part he has responded. This includes two great games vs. Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davius White and two duds vs. Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey. Metcalf did get some revenge vs. Arizona in week 11 securing a TD but was once again held under 50 yards receiving in that game.

Week 12 Recommendation – Start

This week Metcalf gets Darius Slay and the Philadelphia Eagles. This season Slay has been used 4 times in shadow coverage holding Terry McLaurin (5-61), A.J. Green (5-36) and Darius Slayton (2-23) and (5-93) all under their season averages. However, none of these players are on the level of D.K. Metcalf and with Slay giving up 4 inches and nearly 40 pounds, we shouldn’t expect Slay to stop Metcalf all day.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,400 / DK $7,900

After a monster season so far D.K Metcalf is priced as a top 5 WR on both sites. This isn’t a surprise, but with his career 9.8 PPG vs. shadow coverage it might sense to fade him this week as he would need a monster performance to return value. Players I would pivot to include Tyreek Hill vs. TB and Chris Godwin vs. KC.

 

 

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Allen Robinson

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

 

Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 28 5.7 74.6 0.4 12.9
Vs. Shadow Coverage 11 5.2 51.5 0.2 8.8
Vs. Green Bay Packers 4 5.3 85.5 0 11.2

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage could be a combination of tougher opponents and QB play, but until we see the latter improve, we will have to go by what we have seen. Prior to 2020 Robinson failed to hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR in 5 of the 7 games he faced shadow coverage. This season things have picked up as he did hit that mark in 2 of his 4 games. This includes solid performances vs. Carlton Davis and the Bucs (10-90) and Malcom Butler and the Titans (7-81).

Week 12 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

In the four career games vs. the Packers, Green Bay has yet to use Jaire Alexander vs. Allen Robinson. This has proven to be a mistake as in 2019 Robinson secured 7 receptions and over 100 yards in both games vs. Green Bay. In 2020 Green Bay has made it a priority using Jaire Alexander more in this role as he already has 4 shadow coverage matchups this season. This includes very solid performances vs. Calvin Ridley (0-0), Mike Evans (1-10) and Will Fuller (3-35-1). However, until we see it firsthand it’s hard to say for sure Alexander will be used in this role vs. Chicago making Robinson a useable player in week 12.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,800 / DK $6,400

On DK Robinson is priced as a top 12 option and even with his solid performances vs. Green Bay in 2019 he still didn’t return value at his top 12 price tag. Meanwhile on FD he does offer a little more of a discount as a mid-range WR2, but even at that price better value can be had. Players we should pivot to include Devante Parker vs. NYJ and Robby Anderson vs. MIN.

 

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

WR1: Keenan Allen

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Tre’Davious White

 

Keenan Allen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 37 6.6 74.2 0.4 13.3
Vs. Shadow Coverage 5 7.8 97.2 0.4 16

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Keenan Allen is one of the few top WRs on his team who is featured on the inside. Even in 2020 Allen still sees roughly 50% of his snaps in the slot. This has made him impossible to stop as he continues to see plus matchups in the interior. However, even when teams tried to shadow him, he has dominated which is reflected in his 16 PPG vs. shadow coverage. This season Allen has only seen 1 shadow coverage matchup which came in week 7 vs. Jacksonville and rookie CB C.J. Henderson. That game didn’t go well for the Jaguars as Allen went for 10-125.

Week 12 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Over the past few games the Bills DST has been a little more susceptible to outside WRs. This includes allowing big games to DeAndre Hopkins and D.K. Metcalf. However, where they have excelled is holding down notable inside WRs. This includes Tyreek Hill (3-20), Tyler Lockett (4-40) and Jakobi Meyers (6-58). This does create some worry for Allen as he will see Tre’Davious White on the outside and then will face a Bills DST that allows the 5th fewest points to inside WRs over the past 5 weeks when he travels to the slot. White in his career has been much better vs. smaller receivers and Allen isn’t imposing at 6’2 211. This is why Allen should be viewed as more as a WR3/Flex this week instead of his WR1 self.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,200 / DK $8,000

Of course, Keenan Allen is a top 5 WR on both sites the dude has been a stud all year. However, the last few times the Chargers traveled to the east coast Allen has been underwhelming. This includes a 8-62 performance vs. Tampa Bay and a 3-39-1 game vs. Miami. Now those performance are ok for season-long, but for DFS not so much. Players I would pivot to include Chris Godwin vs. KC and Tyreek Hill vs. TB.

 

What is the best way to beat shadow coverage…….A Quick Slant

A.J. Green vs. James Bradberry

The biggest reason many people should be avoiding A.J. Green isn’t James Bradberry it’s new starting QB Brandon Allen. Behind a poor offensive line, it will be tough for the backup QB to get anything done. This on top of the fact Green will see a lot for Bradberry on the outside makes him a sit in week 12.

N’Keal Harry vs. Patrick Peterson

It remains to be seen if N’Keal Harry has done enough in his young career to earn shadow coverage, but if anyone would draw that matchup from Peterson it would be Harry. Good news for Harry he played over 40% of his snaps on the inside last week which means he would avoid Peterson for a large chunk of his snaps. Either way Harry isn’t anything more than a WR3 as he competes for targets with Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers.

Jerry Jeudy vs. Marshon Lattimore

Marshon Lattimore has only been credited with shadowing Mike Evans so far in 2020 so the likelihood of him taking on Jerry Jeudy is slim. However, the Saints DST has turned a corner and recently held down primary outside WRs Calvin Ridley (5-90) and Mike Evans (4-64) to below their season averages. Finally, with Drew Lock struggling, it could be a long day for Juedy making him a risky start this week.

Deebo Samuel vs. Jalen Ramsey

The last time Deebo Samuel faced the Rams his ADOT was -5.3 which is simply unheard of. Most of his receptions came with screens and jet sweeps which will help him get away from Ramsey. I don’t expect that to change much this week, but it’s a lot to expect from Samuel to create all that production after the catch. Samuel did find the end zone in week 6 so he will most likely need to find the end zone again to return flex value making him a risky start in week 12.