Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 20
2 11
3 11
4+ 29
Grand Total 71

Team: Detroit Lions

Opponent: Tennessee Titans

WR1: Marvin Jones

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Malcolm Butler

Marvin Jones vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 31 4.4 56.7 0.6 11.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 4.3 48.8 0.3 8.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

According to PFF Marvin Jones hasn’t seen any shadow coverage this season. This year Jones hasn’t seen a lot of tough cornerback matchups overall only facing Jaire Alexander twice in 2020. The Lions did square off vs. Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals but in that game, Kenny Golladay made one of his few appearances of 2020. The good news for Marvin Jones is Stafford is expected to play and with the Titans expected to put up points Jones could see a lot of volume.

Week 14 Recommendation – Sit

This season Malcolm Butler has been assigned to 4 wide receivers including Chase Claypool (1- -2), A.J. Green (2-19), Allen Robinson (7-81) and D.J. Chark (2-16) holding those 4 players to an average of 4.4 PPG in .5 PPR. With Kenny Golladay ruled out again it is clear that Marvin Jones is the true #1 and similar to Chark last week we should expect Butler to be assigned to him. Jones hasn’t excelled in shadow coverage in his career averaging 3 point less per game in those matchups. This makes Marvin Jones a sit in week 15.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,100 / DK $5,700

Marvin Jones is valued as a borderline WR2 on both sites. That price tag isn’t terrible but over the past month Jones has only returned WR2 value once. Jones isn’t a terrible play at this price tag but players I would pivot to include Keke Coutee vs. IND and Emmanuel Sanders vs. KC.

 

Team: Miami Dolphins

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: DeVante Parker

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

 

DeVante Parker vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 21 4.3 62.5 0.5 11.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 4.6 70.8 0.3 10.9
Vs. Stephon Gilmore 1 8 137 0 17.7

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It is important to point out that DeVante Parker’s stats are starting from his breakout 2019 campaign. This does include 3 games vs. the Patriots but only one has come in the shadow of Stephon Gilmore. Last year Parker got the best of Gilmore in their matchup. However, he hasn’t done much in the two other matchups vs. the Patriots. This season in shadow coverage Parker has struggled only securing 4.3 receptions for 45.8 yards and 1 total TD in four games when facing an opposing top CB.

Week 14 Recommendation – Sit

The Patriots are well known for dominating rookie QBs and Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t be any different in week 15. Even Stephon Gilmore has turned it on over the past few weeks slowing down Brandin Cooks and Keenan Allen. This year the Patriots have still been solid vs. WRs holding them to the 8th fewest points per game in 2020. Parker’s struggles vs. shadow corners in 2020 along with his injury probably makes him a fade in week 15.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,300 / DK $5,900

On each site Parker is valued as a top 24 player making him a fade in DFS. With the news of Michael Thomas being ruled out players like Emmanuel Sanders vs. KC and T.Y. Hilton vs. HOU on DK are both lower cost so it makes no sense to gamble on Parker in DFS for week 15.

 

Team: Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR1: Calvin Ridley

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Carlton Davis

 

Calvin Ridley vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 33 4.6 65.2 0.7 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 5.1 70.8 0.4 11.9
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 5.1 70.8 0.7 11.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Calvin Ridley has responded in back to back weeks vs. shadow coverage beating both Marshon Lattimore (5-108) and Casey Hayward (8-124-1). Ridley did most of his damage on a trick play vs. the Chargers scoring a 39-yard TD off a pass from Russell Gage. However, with Julio out Ridley is a lock for double digit targets once again giving him the volume to overcome any tough matchup. 

Week 14 Recommendation – Start

It is hard to ignore the 11 targets per game over the past two weeks with Julio out. This level of target volume will keep anyone afloat for fantasy. I do want to point out that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it a priority coming out of the bye last week to slow down both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and they succeed holding both under 40 yards receiving. This could be a sign of things to come as Todd Bowles does have a background as a DB coach. Either way you’re starting Ridley.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,400 / DK $8,200

No Julio has turned Ridley into a DFS monster now priced as a top 3 option on both sites. Call me skeptical but I am not buying. Just look at Ridley’s numbers over the past 3 games vs. the Buccaneers and that along doesn’t justify his top 3 price point. At that cost you can pay up for the Rams WRs vs. the Jets or DeAndre Hopkins with no Darius Slay vs. the Eagles.

 

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: Atlanta Falcons

WR1: Mike Evans

Shadow Coverage Matchup: A.J. Terrell

Mike Evans vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 28 5.3 87.4 0.8 16.3
Vs. Shadow Coverage 16 4 63.1 0.4 11.1
vs. Atlanta Falcons 3 4.7 71.3 0.7 13.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Mike Evans has faced 5 shadow coverage matchups in 2020 with mixed results. This includes three poor performances vs. Marshon Lattimore (1-2-1)/(4-64) and Jaire Alexander (1-10)  and two solid games vs. Jalen Ramsey (5-49-1) and James Bradberry (5-55-1). Evans seems to be bailed out by TDs in these matchup as he is yet to top 65 yards in a game vs. shadow coverage in 2020. Since 2018 Evans has been up and down vs. Atlanta with one big game going for 6-106-2 and 2 duds.

Week 14 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

In back to back weeks the Falcons have used their talented rookie cornerback to shadow the opposing team’s top WR. This includes Mike Thomas (9-105) in week 13 and Keenan Allen (9-52-1) in week 14. Both players delivered for season-long fantasy, but Terrell held his own in each game. Terrell hasn’t earned enough of reputation on the field to sit Evans plus Evans does play about 40% of his snaps in the slot which should allow him enough snaps away from Terrell. This usage should make him a solid play in week 15.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,500

Mike Evans is the same price on FD as Cooper Kupp vs. NYJ so there is no way to justify playing Mike Evans over him in week 15. As for DK he does come at a little more of a discount but with solid options like Brandon Aiyuk vs. DAL and T.Y. Hilton coming at much cheaper costs in plus matchups I would pivot away in DFS across the board.

What is the best way to beat shadow coverage……A Quick Slant

Tyreek Hill vs. Marshon Lattimore

Marshon Lattimore doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Tyreek Hill and with Hill playing nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot we shouldn’t expect Lattimore to shadow him in week 15. This makes Hill a lock and loaded WR1 in New Orleans.

Breshad Perriman vs. Jalen Ramsey

I don’t expect a lot of people to get cute in week 15 and play Breshad Perriman vs. the Rams but just in case you were thinking about it…..don’t. The Rams are much easier to beat on the inside which should benefit Crowder not Perriman.

 Diontae Johnson vs. William Jackson

William Jackson has shadowed the opposing team’s #1 WRs in each of the last 4 weeks. However, in 2020 no team has used any shadow coverage vs. the Steelers so it’s hard to say if opposing team view Johnson as the true #1. Johnson is still a solid play in season long leagues but it is something to keep in mind for DFS.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Darius Slay

This is an injury update as Darius Slay has been ruled out. The Eagles will be without both starting CBs in this game and with no top CB to slow down Hopkins getting him in your DFS lineup is recommended.