The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 17
| Shadow Coverage Tracker | |
|---|---|
| WR Finish | Total |
| 1 | 23 |
| 2 | 13 |
| 3 | 13 |
| 4+ | 29 |
| Grand Total | 78 |
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: New York Giants
WR1: Amari Cooper
Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry
| Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All Other Opponents | 31 | 5.6 | 77.6 | 0.5 | 13.3 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 15 | 4.4 | 57.5 | 0.4 | 10.3 |
| vs. James Bradberry | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 3.3 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
Amari Cooper’s performance vs. shadow coverage has been solid on paper posting 10 PPG in .5 PPR since 2018. However, it is important to point out he has failed to hit double digits in 8 games while failing to hit 6 points in 7 of those contests in .5 PPR. This low floor tends to make Cooper more of a boom or bust prospect when facing notable shadow corners.
Week 17 Recommendation – WR3/Flex
Earlier this season James Bradberry was able to slow down Amari Cooper to 2-23 on just 4 targets. This production came on a day where the Cowboys were able to throw for 277 yards. Granted this was the same game Dak Prescott went down with his season ending injury, but both Michael Gallup (4-73) and Ceedee Lamb (8-124) outperformed him on the week. Even though his upside is capped, Dallas is one of the very few teams with something to play for making Cooper a solid WR3 this week even in a tough matchup.
DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,700 / DK $5,800
Amari Cooper is being valued as a borderline WR2/3 on both sites. At this price he’s not a terrible value, but with just over 50% of his games in shadow coverage falling under 10 points it makes him a risky play in week 17. Notable players you can pivot to including Emmanuel Sanders vs. CAR and Marquise Brown vs. CIN.
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jalen Ramsey
| DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All Other Opponents | 30 | 7.5 | 98.4 | 0.4 | 16.2 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 19 | 6.1 | 68.7 | 0.6 | 13.7 |
| vs. Jalen Ramsey | 4 | 4.8 | 48 | 0.8 | 11.7 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
According to PFF DeAndre Hopkins has yet to see shadow coverage in 2020. However, Hopkins runs a league high 83% of his routes from the left side which might be the cause of him not being technically “shadow covered”. This should be the case this week as Ramsey will lineup against him for most the day again like he did back in week 13.
Week 17 Recommendation – Start
In four career games vs. Ramsey, Hopkins was able to find the end zone in 3 of them. This has led to a solid 11.7 PPG when facing him. What is slightly concerning is his yardage and receptions are just under 50 and 5 which could lead to an uninspiring performance if he doesn’t find the end zone. Overall Hopkins has hit at least 11 targets in the last 4 games and with this one being a must win, Hopkins should do enough to be a top 24 WR in week 17.
DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,200 / DK $7,900
DeAndre Hopkins has a top 6 price point on both sites making him a very tough sell for DFS. Earlier this year Hopkins found the end zone and secured 8-52-1 vs. Ramsey but that will not get it done based at his price on each site. Notable players you can pivot to include Mike Evans vs. ATL and the Vikings WRs vs. DET who have much easier matchups and more upside this week.
Team: Washington Football Team
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
WR1: Terry McLaurin
Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay
| Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Games | Rec | Yards | TDs | PPG |
| All Other Opponents | 19 | 4.8 | 68.3 | 0.4 | 11.4 |
| Vs. Shadow Coverage | 9 | 5.2 | 77.7 | 0.3 | 12.4 |
| Vs. Darius Slay | 1 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 8.6 |
Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage
Terry McLaurin’s production vs. shadow coverage has been impressive this season as he has scored more points vs. shadow coverage than vs all other opponents. A lot of this has to do with his consistent volume seeing on average 8 targets per game in these contests. This has led to him averaging nearly 10 more yards and 0.5 reception more per game when facing shadow coverage.
Week 17 Recommendation – Start
This will be a rematch of week 1 where McLaurin secured 5-61 vs. Darius Slay. Slay hasn’t not been playing as well lately as top WRs have been dominating the Eagles as of late. This includes big games from Amari Cooper (4-121), Michael Thomas (8-84) and Davante Adams (10-121-2) just over the last 3 games Slay has played. With the season on the line and with Alex Smith set to start, McLaurin should be able to return top 24 value.
DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,400 / DK N/A
The Eagles vs. Washington Football team is going to be played on Sunday night which leaves McLaurin off the main slate. You can add in the night game on Fan Duel, but McLaurin’s top 15 price point doesn’t make him enough of a value to include the game just to have McLaurin in your DFS lineup this week.
The Best Way To Beat Shadow Coverage… A Quick Slant!
Robert Woods vs. Patrick Peterson
No Cooper Kupp means Robert Woods could take over as the main slot WR similar to what he did in 2019. This will allow him to see a lot of production away from Patrick Peterson. Even so, earlier this year Woods dominated the Cardinals going for 10-85 making him a solid WR2 in week 17.
D.J. Moore vs. Marshon Lattimore
Lattimore has yet to shadow Moore in any game this season and earlier this year the Saints didn’t use Lattimore to cover either Anderson or Moore. Both Moore and Anderson did finish with solid games back in week 7 with Moore finding the end zone twice. However, with no Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara or Latavius Murray this could be a lower scoring affair making Moore/Anderson just WR3/Flex plays in week 17.
Allen Robinson vs. Jaire Alexander
In the 5 career games that Allen Robinson has faced the Packers as Bear the Packers have yet to use Jaire Alexander in shadow coverage on him. This has led to a solid 13.6 PPG in .5 PPR vs. GB for Robinson making him a solid WR2 in a must win game for Chicago in week 17.
Calvin Ridley vs. Carlton Davis
Top Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis looks doubtful for week 17 making Calvin Ridley a lock and loaded WR1 for his week 17 matchup vs. Tampa Bay.
Marquise Brown vs. William Jackson
The loss of top shadow CB William Jackson greatly improves Marquise Brown’s matchup for week 17. This should allow Brown to build on his already great game from earlier this season vs the Bengals where he went for (6-77-1) making him a solid WR2 this week.
