The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 7

 

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 7
2 4
3 5
4+ 17
Grand Total 33

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 21 4.8 70.6 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 3 3 48.3 0 6.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

In the past DeAndre Hopkins saw most of the shadow coverage in Houston, but with him out of town Fuller is the main focus of defenses. Luckily so far in 2020 Will Fuller has yet to face a team that employs shadow coverage. That will change in week 7 as the Houston Texans square off vs. Jaire Alexander and the Green Bay Packers. Prior to 2020 Fuller has faced shadow coverage 3 times including games vs. the Patriots, Jaguars and the Saints. In two of the three games Fuller has gotten over 65 yards but has yet to see the end zone. This has led to Fuller not getting over 10 points in .5 PPR in any games when facing shadow coverage.

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

This week’s opponent Jaire Alexander has shadowed Adam Thielen (6-110-2), Calvin Ridley (0-0) and Mike Evans (1-10) so far in 2020. We can sit here and argue that Ridley and Evans weren’t 100%, but the complete duds they put up are alarming. However, the reason why Fuller isn’t a sit is because the Packers should be able to put up points vs Houston which should force DeShaun Watson to throw early and often. This type of game script should allow Fuller to secure enough production to still be in your lineups in week 7.

DFS – Price FD $6,900 / DK $6,800

On DK Will Fuller is priced as a top 10 WR and with Jaire Alexander expected to shadow him it doesn’t make sense to pay up for him this week. At that price point you can pay up for Stefon Diggs vs. NYJ or get Tyler Lockett vs. ARI at a cheaper cost vs. much better matchup. On FanDuel Fuller is priced outside the top 12 which is slightly more appealing but with Razzball darling Terry McLaurin vs. DAL only priced $200 more in a much superior matchup, I would pivot to him instead this week.

 

Team: Carolina Panthers

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: D.J. Moore

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Marshon Lattimore

D.J Moore vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 16 5.6 78.6 0.3 12.3
Vs. Shadow Coverage 3 4.7 78 0 10.1

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Early on in 2020 D.J. Moore has faced 3 teams that have used shadow coverage at some point in the season. This includes Cardinals, Chargers and Buccaneers.  Due to the emergence of Robby Anderson none of those teams have been credited with using any of their top CBs on Moore. This could be the case once again as the Saints have Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins on the outside. However, even without using shadow coverage the Saints have been one of the toughest matchups for WRs. In the 4 games that Lattimore has played only Mike Williams has finished in the top 24 on the week.

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Outside of the Buccaneers game where the Panthers trailed big late, Moore just hasn’t gotten it done this season in tougher matchups. This is mostly due to his inconsistent targets as he has 3 games with 6 or less and 3 games with 9 or more (no pun). These lower target games have come vs. tougher opponents including a 4-49 game vs. Arizona and 2-65 performance vs. the Chargers. Granted the Saints should be able to put up points at home which is why he’s not a must sit player, but overall the CB matchup makes him nothing more (all pun) than a flex option in week 7.

DFS – Price FD $6,600 / DK $5,600

D.J. Moore is priced as a top 20 option on FanDuel and cost $200 more than Robby Anderson. Anderson averages over 2 point more a game in this format and with his price point being lower it makes no sense to play Moore if you want a piece of this matchup. On Draft Kings Moore is priced outside the top 20 which is not bad, but with Terry McLaurin only $200 more vs. a much superior matchup, I would find a way to get him in your lineup this week instead.

Team: San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Deebo Samuel

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Deebo Samuel has yet to face shadow coverage in his career as his late season emergence along with his injury early on in 2020 hasn’t presented a lot of opportunities to see top corners. That will change in week 7 as no team uses shadow coverage more than the New England Patriots. Deebo is coming off a very nice performance vs. LAR where he secured all 6 targets for 66 yards and a score. This is very encouraging as the Rams have been the toughest opponent vs. WRs this season. However, the Rams haven’t used Jalen Ramsey to shadow top WRs all season and this week we should expect either Stephon Gilmore or J.C. Jackson to follow Deebo all game.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

Traveling to Foxboro to face off vs. the Pats is no easy task as the Patriots always seem to get it done defensively at home. Last week Tim Patrick did post a 4-101, but the opportunities will be limited. Plus Deebo’s production vs. the Rams comes as less of a surprise as LAR has allowed the 4th most yards after the catch (YAC) this season. This fits Deebo’s skill set. The Patriots on the other hand have allowed the 5th fewest YAC on the year. This drastic difference in defensive style should lead to a slower game for Samuel.

DFS – Price FD $5,400 / DK $5,000

Deebo’s price point on each site puts him well outside the top 40. I mean this is draft throw territory so if you are looking for a low cost option that could pay off …..maybe? I would personally pivot to Christian Kirk who faces a Seattle DST that has allowed the most points to WRS and is around the same price point on both sites.

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

WR1: D.K. Metcalf

Shadow Coverage Match-up: Patrick Peterson

D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 17 4 70 0.6 12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 51.5 0.5 9.7
Vs. Patrick Peterson 1 0 0 0 0

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Earlier this season D.K. got loose vs. Stephon Gilmore for a 50-yard TD which led to a solid 4-92-1 day. This was the third time in 4 meetings vs. shadow coverage that Metcalf scored at least 10 points in .5 PPR. Granted the 3 receptions per game when seeing shadow coverage isn’t ideal but his deep play ability along with Russell Wilson playing at an MVP level will make it tough to get away from him even in tougher matchups.  

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

No one is sitting D.K. Metcalf but the 1-time D.K. Metcalf didn’t hit double digit fantasy points was a zero-point performance against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals last season. Now since I don’t want to lose my writing privileges on this site I am not going to go on limb here and say D.K. Metcalf will get shut down, but tempering expectations for the white hot Metcalf is advised. This season the Seahawks have faced Atlanta, Dallas, Minnesota and Miami with no Byron Jones so to say his schedule has been soft is an understatement. However, with his deep play ability and red zone usage, Metcalf just needs 1 play to finish as a top 36 WR on the week.  

DFS – Price FD $7,300 / DK $7,200

D.K. Metcalf is priced as a top 12 WR on both sites and at this price Metcalf would need to post a monster week just to get you any value. This season Terry McLaurin, Jamison Crowder and Amari Cooper all got over 17 points in .5 PPR, but that production came when the Cardinals were up big. The Seahawks are favored in this game on the road so game flow might not allow Metcalf to go off in this one making him a DFS fade. Players I would pivot to include Julio Jones vs DET and Stefon Diggs vs. NYJ.

Team: Green Bay Packers

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: Davante Adams

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

Davante Adams vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 19 7.6 89.5 0.7 17.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage 11 6.6 85.1 0.5 15.1

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Davante Adams is as consistent as they come even vs. shadow coverage which is reflected in his 15 PPG in .5 PPR. Last week Adams squared off vs. Carlton Davis and the Buccaneers and his 6-61 on 10 targets was a disappointment. It is important to note that the Packers pulled their starter half way through the 4th quarter as they were getting blown out by Tamp Bay. Also, Adams and Rodgers didn’t seem to be clicking on all cylinders missing on a few targets early on. Overall we can chop that game up to rust as Adams looks to bounce back In week 7.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

Adams will never be a sit in season long as his floor is way to high which was on display last week as he nearly got double digit points in a game where the starters were benched in a blowout. This week’s opponent is a lot easier as well. Roby has held his own this season, but we just saw A.J. Brown score twice vs. the Texans in week 6. Prior to that Roby did slow down Chase Claypool, Marquise Brown and D.J. Chark to under 7 points in .5 PPR. Adams is a different animal so you can start him with confidence in week 7.

DFS – Price FD $8,900 / DK $7,900

Typically, I would tell you to avoid high priced players in shadow coverage, but my gut tells me Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are going to want to prove a point after a blowout loss last week. This is why I recommend getting Adams in your lineup even in a slight tougher matchup as he should be able to dominate Roby and the Texans in this one.

 

What’s the best way to beat shadow coverage….a quick slant

Henry Ruggs vs. Carlton Davis

Ruggs plays nearly 50% of his snaps in the slot so he wont see a lot of Davis in this game. The good news for Ruggs is TB is worse on the inside so he could still be on the WR3 map in this game.

Kenny Golladay vs. A.J. Terrell

The rookie A.J. Terrell shadowed a player for the first time in his career as he followed Adam Thielen for most of the game. Terrell held his own but Thielen did score and until we see him shut down more players I don’t recommend fading Kenny Golladay.

Allen Robinson vs. Jalen Ramsey

The Rams have yet to use Ramsey in shadow coverage all season so Robinson should see plenty of work away from his coverage. However, the Rams are the toughest defense vs. WRs so Robinson is nothing more than a WR3 in this matchup.

  1. Chucky says:
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    Week 7 PPR ranks? MThomas ( if he plays, is he just a decoy?), Lockett, McLaurin, Debo and MWilliams? 14 teams.
    Week 7 PPR, AJ Brown, Woods, Cole, Cooks, Higgins and Hardman ( breakout game considering he was a zero factor last Monday night?) 12 teams?
    Thanks. Anyone your NOT starting?

    • Bobby LaMarco

      Bobby says:
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      In the first option fading Deebo while Lockett and McLaurin are must starts

      Second group big fan of All those guys outside of Hardman. I’d list them as

      A. J Brown
      Woods if active
      Higgins
      COOKS
      Cole

  2. The Harrow says:
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    arob is only a WR #3 against LAR even if ramsey isn’t shadowing him eh? i’ll take a 50/50 bet that arob ends week 7 (esp with byes) as at least the WR #24 (a WR 2). i’m pretty sure a bookshop would make me post that as favorite odds though, not 1 to 1. i’m here assuming you mean “WR 3” to mean for 12’ers, so 25th-36th (or worse) WR for this week.

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