The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 9

 

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 9
2 5
3 7
4+ 22
Grand Total 43

 

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: D.J. Chark

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

 

D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage

Opponent

Games

Rec

Yards

TDs

PPG

All Other Opponents

18

4.9

66.8

0.6

12.8

Vs. Shadow Coverage

3

3.7

32.3

0.0

5.1

Vs. Houston Texans

3

4.7

34.3

0.3

7.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It has been a tough go of it for D.J. Chark when he has faced shadow coverage in his young career only averaging 5.1 PPG. This includes a matchup earlier this season vs. Bradley Roby where he only secured 3 receptions for 16 yards. This production came on a day when Gardner Minshew threw for 301 yards and 2 scores. Dating back to last season Chark has yet to get over 50 yards or score in a game when he faces shadow coverage.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

In week 9 Jake Luton will make his first career start for the Jaguars providing much more uncertainty for Chark this week. In the matchup earlier this year the Jaguars defense was very banged up in the secondary and at least they will have top CB C.J. Henderson back for this one. This should help slow down Deshaun Watson on the other side which could lead to less of a shootout. It was already tough to trust him with Minshew but now playing with a 6th round rookie it’s best to leave him on benches this week.

DFS – Price FD $6,400 / DK $5,200

On each site Chark would cost you over 10% of your budget and with his history vs. Shadow coverage it is best to pivot to other options. Other players I would start over Chark include Christian Kirk vs. MIA and John Brown vs. SEA.

 

Team: Washington Redskins

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 15 4.9 72.7 0.5 12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 6 4.7 67.5 0.3 11.1

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Terry McLaurin has held his own throughout his career vs. shadow coverage which is reflected in his 11.1 PPG. It is important to point out that 1/3 of his career production came in 1 game vs. the Arizona Cardinals where he secured 50 yards and a TD late in the 4th quarter down 3 scores. However, he has displayed a nice floor getting over 50 yards and/or 4 receptions in 5/6 games in his career when facing shadow coverage.

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Earlier this year the Giants didn’t deploy James Bradberry to shadow McLaurin which led to a solid 7-74 day. However, with the injuries to Giants CBs Ryan Lewis and Logan Ryan it would make sense for them to use Bradberry to shadow McLaurin in this one. In 2020 Bradberry has been credited with shadowing 5 WRs holding 4 of 5 of them to under 10 points in .5 PPR this season. This makes McLaurin nothing more than a WR3/flex in week 9.

DFS – Price FD $7,200 / DK $6,500

On both sites McLaurin is priced as a top 16 option and even if he repeats his solid 7-74 from earlier this season vs. NYG that will not get it done for DFS purposes.  Due to James Bradberry’s ability to slow down opposing #1s it’s best to look elsewhere. Players I would pivot to include Justin Jefferson vs. DET and Robby Anderson vs. KC.

 

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

WR1: D.K. Metcalf

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Tre’Davious White

 

D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 18 4.4 75.1 0.7 13.7
Vs. Shadow Coverage 5 2.8 45.8 0.4 8.4

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

D.K. Metcalf has been an absolute stud all year getting over 90 yards in 6/7 games while securing a TD in 5 of them. This includes a shadow coverage matchup vs. Stephon Gilmore where D.K. Metcalf got loose for a 50-yard TD on his way to 4-92-1 line. However, we did see his floor for the first time all year vs. Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals where Metcalf only netted 2-23. It seems that Patrick Peterson has D.K. Metcalf’s number but overall Metcalf has been nearly matchup proof.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

This week D.K. Metcalf has a tougher matchup vs. Tre’Davious White and the Buffalo Bills but he still a solid season long start. This has to do with White’s inability to slow down bigger WRs in his career. This includes solid performances from Kenny Golladay (7-146), Devante Parker (7-135), and DeAndre Hopkins (5-63-1 and 6-90). With how White hot (no pun) Metcalf is I wouldn’t sit him in a game where the Bills should be able to keep up with the Seahawks making him a season-long start in week 9.

DFS – Price FD $8,100 / DK $7,800

D.K. Metcalf is priced as a top 5 option on both sites which means you will need a monster performance from him to get any value back. Even though White has struggled vs. bigger WRs he has yet to allow over 20 fantasy points in .5 PPR to any WR in his career. This is the level of production you need to value back for Metcalf so I believe you should look elsewhere in week 9. Players I would play over Metcalf include Stefon Diggs vs. SEA and Tyler Lockett vs. BUF.  

 

Team: Miami Dolphins

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

WR1: DeVante Parker

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Patrick Peterson

 

DeVante Parker vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 18 4.3 62.9 0.6 11.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage 5 5 87.2 0.4 13.6

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

We have only seen the new DeVante Parker with Ryan Fitzpatrick and it was a glorious time for fantasy owners. Dating back to last year Parker has scored over 13 points in .5 PPR in 4 of 5 games when facing shadow coverage. This includes a 8-137 performance vs. Stephon Gilmore last season when he was DPOY. However, all this production came with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Now Parker has rookie Tua Tagovailoa who in his first career start didn’t have to do much as the Dolphins cruised to a win vs. the Rams.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

Call me a skeptic but I need to see it before I start Parker with the rookie. Last week Parker only saw 2 targets on 22 attempts for Tua which isn’t a great start to their career together. Game flow should help boost Parker’s numbers as they should be trailing on the road so more pass volume is on the way for the Dolphins. We have seen players like Amari Cooper (7-79-1) and Kenny Golladay (6-57-1) and Terry McLaurin (7-125-1) produce vs. Arizona but all three did it with 7 or more targets including 2 with 10. It is possible that Parker gets those numbers, but until I see it with Tua I will have Parker on my bench.

DFS – Price FD $6,300 / DK $5,200

Parker is priced outside the top 24 on both sites with a much deeper discount on DK. Having him listed outside the top 30 on DK does make him somewhat appealing as he won’t kill your DFS lineup if he has a modest day. Overall with notable players like Christian Kirk vs. MIA and Diontae Johnson vs. DAL at the same price point and in much easier matchups, I won’t have much Parker in my lineups this week.

 

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: Mike Evans

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Marshon Lattimore

 

Mike Evans vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 25 5.5 90.5 0.8 16.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 14 3.9 64.1 0.4 11.1
vs. Marshon Lattimore 4 3 58.8 0.5 10.4

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

We are once again back to talk about old pals Marshon Lattimore and Mike Evans. Since a monster week 1 performance back in 2018 where Evans torched Lattimore for 7-147-1 it has been all Lattimore. In the next 3 games Lattimore has held Evans to (4-86), (0-0-0) and (1-2-1). This season hasn’t been kind already to Evans, but he did show some life last week vs. James Bradberry getting into the end zone and catching 5-55 on the day.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

A lot of the reason why Evans is a sit is listed above but with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown now in the fold it makes sense that Tom Brady will have plenty of other ways to beat the Saints. Lattimore has shown that he can hold Evans to terrible week killing days including a zero point performance. This floor doesn’t justify his ceiling in a game where the Buccaneers will be able to beat the Saints in other ways.

DFS – Price FD $7,500 / DK $6,400

Mike Evans still has that name value price bump on both sites as they have him as a top 16 WR. Let’s get real here Tyler Lockett vs. BUF, Robby Anderson vs. KC and even running mate Chris Godwin vs. NO (DK only) are cheaper which doesn’t justify getting him in your lineups. It would be nice if these sites gave us a shadow coverage discount, but until that happens I would look elsewhere in DFS.

 

Team: New Orleans Saints

Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR1: Mike Thomas

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Carlton Davis

 

Michael Thomas vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 8.8 101.1 0.6 17.9
Vs. Shadow Coverage 10 7.5 82.1 0.5 15
Vs. Carlton Davis 1 3 17 0 3.2

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Welcome back Michael Thomas!! Not seen since his week 1 dud vs. TB, Thomas is a sight for sore eyes for fantasy owners. Thomas has been elite in his career overall and vs. shadow coverage that hasn’t changed much. Thomas has hit double digit fantasy points in .5 PPR in 6 of 10 games including 4 games of 20 points or more. This ceiling of 4 20-point performances vs. only 4 duds since 2018 will justify starting Thomas in nearly every matchup as if it’s a coin flip I am betting on Thomas.

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

As stated above Thomas will never be a sit in any matchup, but we should proceed with caution in his first week back since week 1. We already saw the floor in the previous matchup and with how well the Buccanners secondary is playing this season it isn’t a slam dunk Thomas will come back guns blazing. Overall I am most likely starting Thomas due to the ability of the Buccaneers to put up points forcing Drew Brees and company to keep up in this one.

DFS – Price FD $8,600 / DK $6,900

Not sure what either site is thinking, but if you want a discount on Thomas you can forget about it. Especially on FD Thomas is priced as the WR2 overall and with a tough matchup on the road he is completely hands off. At that price you can play Julio Jones vs. DEN or DeAndre Hopkins vs. MIA. As for DK he will still cost you top 10 value and with player like Tyler Lockett vs. BUF and Robby Anderson vs. KC priced less, I would pivot away from him in week 9.

What’s the best way to beat shadow coverage….. a quick slant

Breshad Perrmian vs. Stephon Gilmore

Breshad Perriman is nearly out of concussion protocol which means he should be back for week 9. The last time I checked Stephon Gilmore wasn’t traded which means he will be tasked to follow Perriman in this one. I am sure you have better options, but if you don’t I would try to find WR help on the waiver wire.

Allen Robinson vs. Malcolm Butler

The Titans secondary has been terrible all year, but over the last two weeks Malcolm Butler has been assigned to follow Chase Claypool (1-(-2)) and A.J. Green (2-19) holding his own in each matchup. Also, the Titans should get back top CB Adoree Jackson and just traded for slot CB Desmond King. Robinson is still a WR3 in week 9 but maybe avoid him in DFS.

  1. Louis says:
    (link)

    Start mike evans or Antonio Brown?

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