Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues, best value on the inter-web. As in-season trades heat up, make sure to utilize Razzball’s FREE custom trade analyzer.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) vs Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
O/U 53 , KC -4 (favorites)
Implied Score: KC 28.5 – LAC 24.5
Even though LAC is listed as the “home” team, this game will be played on a neutral site in Mexico City, Mexico.
Carrying the highest point total for week 11, AFC West division rivals meet down in Mexico City on ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Dating back to 2017, KC vs LAC have averaged a 52.8 total points over their previous 5 matchups.
Patrick Mahomes has the 2nd best passer rating in the league, fewest INTs (1), and 12th best completion % in the league (66.3). Even though LAC D is allowing the 2nd best QB completion percentage in the league (71.7%), the Chargers have been a challenging matchup for opposing quarterbacks. The Chargers are allowing the 5th fewest passing yards per game (207.8), and are allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Only allowing QB18 (Carr) – QB21 (Rodgers) – QB29 (Trubisky) finishes over the previous 3 games. More impressively, limiting Aaron Rodgers’ offense to only 11 points and handing the NFC North leading Green Packers their 2nd loss. Patrick Mahomes has proven to be matchup proof dating back to his 2018 MVP season. In their two matchups against the Bolts last year, Mahomes threw for a combined 6 passing TDs and 499 passing yards. Fresh off his QB3 finish against an above average Titans defense, Rudy projects Mahomes to repeat as the QB3 in week 11. For those paying up for QB this weekend on Draftkings, Mahomes comes in at a $700 discount from the top QB on the slate – Lamar Jackson ($7,700).
Excluding LAC’s week 9 anomaly against the Packers, the Chargers have allowed a top 10 fantasy running back performance dating back to week 5 ( 7/ 45/ 7/ 8/ 1/ 6). Even though he fumbled during the 1st half last week, Damien Williams found the field for 73% of the Chiefs offensive snaps (60 total snaps). With LeSean McCoy a healthy scratch, Darrel Williams finished 2nd on the RB depth chart with an uninspiring 17 total snaps (20.7%). The unknown around McCoy’s “rest” adds a level of uncertainty, was this just a timeout for McCoy after a crucial fumble in week 9? If active this week, do we see a near 40-40 split like we did between Damien and McCoy in week 8? Regardless, given Damien’s “bell cow” usage last week and his dual threat abilities at RB, Williams should be viewed as a sure-fire RB2 in PPR formats with RB1 upside in a juicy matchup. I understand, in deeper formats, the necessity to start McCoy if he were to suit up, but I would avoid playing him at all cost until we see his usage stabilize. Maybe we see the Chiefs give rookie RB Darwin Thompson more looks down the stretch, but he does not warrant a bench spot in most formats unless we see his usage start to spike.
Surprisingly stingy against opposing WR’s, the Chargers are allowing the 5th fewest receiving yards per game, 8th fewest receptions over 20 yards, and 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. The Bolts have tightened up against WRs recently, not allowing a top 30 scoring fantasy WR over their previous 3 games. But allowed a top 15 scoring WR in 5 out of their first 6 games this season. Arguably the fastest player in the NFL, there is no situation where Tyreek Hill should be on a fantasy bench. Hill is averaging 105.4 receiving yards and 16.8 fantasy points per game since returning from his early season shoulder injury. Coming in as Rudy’s WR30 for week 11, Sammy Watkins provides upside in a game where the Chiefs are projected to score 4 touchdowns. In Mahomes’ first game back from injury, Sammy was the 2nd leading WR in snaps (63) and targets (9). Watkins should be viewed as a flex play with WR2 upside. I would love to see Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill in a 100-yard dash, maybe we can get Hill streaking past Hardman in a game like he did with Damien Williams. Mecole Hardman flashed his game breaking speed last week, taking his lone target for a 63 yard tuddie. Mecole registered a measly 18 snaps (22%), and it would be playing with fire for anyone chasing the fantasy points. His current usage does not warrant a start. He should be considered as a bench stash in deeper formats, in hopes Andy Reid shows a concerted effort to get him more involved in the game plan. Demarcus Robinson only trailed Sammy by 8 snaps last week (55 snaps – 67.1%) and is a dart throw as a flex play after playing 4th fiddle to Hill-Watkins-Kelce. In a position that bottoms out after the top 6 at the position, Travis Kelce is Rudy’s projected #1 TE play this weekend and doesn’t require any advanced metric to convince you to start him, besides the fact that Kelce has never scored a TD against the Chargers (credit to the Fantasy Guru John Hansen for that nugget this morning on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio).
Failing to crack the top 20 at the position since week 7, Philip Rivers is a bet on volume game-script 2QB league start. The Chiefs are allowing the 12th lowest completion percentage in the league (63.3), 8th fewest passing yards per game (63.3), and the 11 fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position. The Chargers sluggish pace (2nd slowest pace per drive), and re-found emphasis on the run, limits Rivers’ upside in this projected shootout. Despite the Chiefs allowing fantasy QB 10 – 9 – 3 finishes over their last three games, Rudy’s projects Rivers to finish this week as the QB15. Rivers will have to earn our trust back after his embarrassing performance last Thursday Night in a plus matchup against the Oakland Raiders. I’m okay with releasing him to waivers in 12-team or smaller leagues.
Receiving his first back-to-back games of over 20 carries, Melvin Gordon is averaging 121 scrimmage yards and 1.5 TD’s over his previous two games. Gordon handled 79% of the Chargers running back carries in week 10, up from 58% in week 9. Returning to his bell cow usage, Gordon gets a cake matchup against a Chiefs defense allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per game (148.1) and 3rd best yards per carry (5.1). Fresh off allowing the overall fantasy RB1 in week 10 and 8, Melvin Gordon comes in as Rudy’s RB12 for the week. I’d put my money on Gordon finishing above that this weekend, and comes in at a fair price of $6,300 on DraftKings. Austin Ekeler found the field for 45% of the Chargers offensive snaps in week 10 but handled a bench worthy 20% of the teams carries and received only 2 targets in a game where the Chargers fell behind early. On the surface, Ekeler is presumed passing down back but Ekeler has only received 1 more target than Gordon since week 8. If this trend continues then Ekeler’s ceiling isn’t as attractive as last years. Ekeler should be viewed as a low end flex play, coming in as Rudys RB29 in week 11.
Allowing the 11th fewest receiving yards per game (245.6), the Chiefs have not allowed a top 40 fantasy WR over their previous 3 games. In a game where the Chargers are expected to trail, this is a bet on game script play for the Chargers receiving core. Coming in at season low pricing, Keenan Allen offers one of the best value buys on Draftkings as the 17th highest priced WR at $6,300. Rudy’s projected WR12 and 7th best point dollar per point out of the top 12 projected receivers. Allen is leading the LAC WR core in total snaps on the season, finding the field for 88.4% of the Chargers offensive snaps. Allen out targeted Mike Williams 11 to 3 in week 10, and is averaging a healthy 8.3 targets per game to Mike’s 4.0 tpg over their previous 3 games. Receiving WR1 volume, bet on a bounce back game for Allen this weekend. Over his last 5 games, Mike Williams has yet to dip below 90% of the chargers offensive snaps and has led all Chargers WR in snaps since week 6. Williams is a boom-bust WR play this weekend. Averaging an uninspiring 4.5 targets over their last 4 games, Williams come in as Rudy’s WR37. Hunter Henry has arrived as a top tier fantasy option at the TE position. Henry is leading all TE in targets per game over the last 2 weeks, and TE2 in targets over the last 5 weeks. The Chiefs have allowed two top 11 fantasy TE finishes in week 10 & 9, and are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to the position. Henry is a no brain start as Rudys projected TE2, only behind the opposing TE Travis Kelce. The 4th priced tight end on DraftKings, Henry is offering a $1,100 discount from the projected TE1 – Travis Kelce.
Leave your lineup questions below in the comments, or @ me on twitter. Good luck in week 11!