Yes, I know George W. isn’t around anymore, and I know it was just Will Ferrell’s comedic genius at work, and I also know that it’s overdone at this point, but I can no longer say strategy for some reason. So anywho, I’ve been taking a look at a drafting strategy that I’ve decided to work on called, well, I haven’t come up with a good name yet so it’s called The 2 QB Strategery as you’ve already seen.
If you know me, and I think you do, I can’t pick a quarterback until I’m sweating the last possible QB’s that I want. I need my starting running backs and usually a couple starting receivers before I’ll delve into the QB realm. You’ve seen the numbers, there were 10 qubes with 4,000 yards or more last season. Here are the top qubes (yes I’m going to keep calling them that) from last season, their average draft position, and points per game —
1. Aaron Rodgers — (26.9 ADP) 20.4 points per game
2. Drew Brees — (11.2) 17.4
3. Brett Favre — (97) 17.1
4. Peyton Manning (24) 17
5. Matt Schaub (64.9) 16.8
6. Tony Romo (49.4) 16.7
7. Tom Brady (14.3) 16.3
8. Philip Rivers (35.2) 16.1
9. Ben Roethlisberger (100.8) 16.06
10. Donovan McNabb (57.1) 14 (injured for 2.5 games)
11. Eli Manning (112.9) 13.8
12. Jay Cutler (78.7) 13.5
I know a few people who drafted Jay Cutler last season and still won their league and of course there are people who drafted Drew Brees who won their league as well. Don’t get me wrong, if your picks after drafting an elite qube are good, you can easily win, but the odds of grabbing 2-3 very good RB’s and 3-4 just as good WR’s are increased when you take them in the first 4-5 rounds. It can be argued that taking the sure thing is always the better choice, but when you can get Matt Schaub, Big Ben, Brett Favre, and even Eli and Jay to do your bidding in the later rounds I believe it is worth the risk, but that is where my 2 qube system comes into play, eliminating risk.
Unlike fantasy baseball, fantasy football is still in the dark ages of head to head leagues. Add to that the annoying byes and 350 pound men running into your quarterback, and you have yourself a problem. Last season Aaron Rodgers was really the only QB that consistently put up game winning numbers for you. Even Drew Brees crapped out in 3 games and that doesn’t include the zilch he put up in week 17 because he was “resting.” But were you going to sit Brees even though he was going up against the Bills and Jets tough pass D’s? That’s right, you weren’t, but what if you had Big Ben and Jay Cutler? You’d look at their matchups and decide which had the better matchup, all the while having drafted Chris Johnson with the 11th pick instead of Brees.
So as you can tell I’m a fan of grabbing two solid QB’s in the mid to late rounds. Of course there is a bit of an art to getting the guys you want and at the right price, but that will depend on ADP and who you are drafting against. Looking at some early ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator I see a few people I’ll be looking for including Tony Romo (if he happens to stay in the 4th round), Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith and Kevin Kolb (depending on McNabb’s home). I could easily see myself with the Cutler/Flacco duo next season, and if they fight crime, that’s just a bonus.
There just isn’t enough of a difference between an elite QB and and the not so elite ones. Aaron Rodgers could put up an average of 3 points per game more than the second best QB next season, but I’m not going to bet anything on it. If you can average 15-16 points per game between your two QB’s all the while having picked from the elite RB/WR, you will be on track for fame and fortune and all that superficial stuff that really won’t make you happy in the long run.