On this week’s dynasty rankings update, we’re talking busts. These players are inside the first six rounds of ADP (Dynasty ADP in this case) but seem destined to disappoint. If you haven’t already, make you subscribe to Razzball so you can enjoy all the awesome tools and content we have on the site. As every dynasty league is different and every team has different needs, I’ve taken a neutral approach to my rankings, assuming PPR, 4-point passing touchdowns and a roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX. I’ve also balanced win-now value and building for the future so my rankings sit somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. If you need help valuing players in your specific situation, message me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn, plus you can find my full positional and rookie rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com If you need IDP rankings you can find them on my website while I also do paid personalised rankings, as advertised on Razzball last year. Contact me if interested.
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
ADP: 34 (QB3)
My Rank: 58 (QB7)
There’s no arguing against Lamar Jackson’s game breaking talent but as a pure passing quarterback, he leaves a lot to be desired. His running ability and the Ravens’ offensive scheme mean teams are forced to play the run and spy Jackson on most downs. This should give Lamar favorable passing opportunities and yet his passing stats are barely middle of the pack. As he ages, the drop-off in his rushing will hurt both his passing and his fantasy output. I can’t imagine wanting Jackson in my fantasy team in 4-5 years time and yet he’s being drafted ahead of a heap of players who should be fantastic for the next decade. He’s a good win-now option in dynasty but that is all.
Anthony Richardson (IND)
ADP: 56 (QB6)
My Rank: 65 (QB9)
All the arguments against Lamar Jackson apply to Anthony Richardson too. But there’s two clear differences. Richardson will be able to run effectively for far longer and he’s yet to show any discernable passing ability in the NFL at all. In fact, last year in his four games his passing was ranked by PFF below every starting QB except Bryce Young and Mac Jones. And that was against four weak defenses. Richardson could be a real liability as a passer and while that may improve, the risk is huge. If you’re going to take a quarterback in the first six rounds of a 1QB draft, at least take one with a good chance of longevity that you can build your roster around. Richardson just ain’t it.
Saquon Barkley (PHI)
ADP: 18 (RB6)
My Rank: 41 (RB11)
Saquon Barkley is one of the most naturally talented runners the NFL has seen this century and the move to Philadelphia finally gives him the opportunity to run behind a top offensive line. But he’s also a 27-year-old with a long injury history entering his seventh NFL season. It’s hard to imagine Barkley will still be playing at a high level in a couple of years. So while he may be a solid fantasy option for a couple of seasons, I want a lot more from my second round pick.
Derrick Henry (BAL)
ADP: 60 (RB16)
My Rank 89 (RB21)
Derrick Henry’s greatest fantasy asset was his rushing volume, though of late he’s also added a surprising receiving floor to his arsenal. This season he’ll lose both of those things. The Ravens will continue to spell Henry regularly with Keaton Mitchell and maybe Rasheen Ali, plus Lamar Jackson isn’t exactly a checkdown quarterback. In PPR in particular, this is a serious concern for Henry’s value. Add in Henry’s age (he’ll be 31 before the season ends!) and you have a running back who will provide limited value in the next season or two then be off your roster in a couple of years. You can do better with a fifth round pick.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
ADP: 20 (WR12)
My Rank: 35 (WR20)
I don’t understand Jaylen Waddle’s ADP at all! Where is the upside? Your best case scenario is that Waddle is a low-end WR1 because the Dolphins have another high-volume passing season. And even if that happens, you haven’t gotten any value out of your second round pick. But the floor is that you’ve selected the WR2 for a team intent on running the ball an incredibly high amount in an offense that surely can’t lead the league in touchdowns again. Oh, and did I mention Waddle received just 4 of the team’s league-leading 61 touchdowns? His role is messy, regression is unlikely to be his friend and his upside is capped. No thank you!
Stefon Diggs (HOU)
ADP: 59 (WR31)
My Rank: 99 (WR45)
Did you watch Stefon Diggs last year? He looked washed! Entering his age-31 season, it’s hard to see the path to fantasy value for a player who chucks a tantrum when his team-leading volume isn’t high enough. Now he’s battling Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz for touches in an offense that isn’t quite as high-volume as you might think. This is a recipe for disaster. I want no part of Diggs in dynasty or redraft.
Trey McBride (ARI)
ADP: 31 (TE2)
My Rank: 56 (TE6)
Tight end is a very deep position in 2024 so if you’re going to take a tight end in the third round, why would you take Trey McBride? You have the best tight end rookie ever in Sam LaPorta, an elite prospect in Brock Bowers, a former top-5 pick in an improving offense in Kyle Pitts and a former TE1 in Mark Andrews. But you take the guy who passed 50 yards only four times in the last nine weeks of the season despite being the undisputed number one receiving option for Kyler Murray. Now that role is firmly in the hands of Marvin Harrison Jr, while Zay Jones is also an underrated addition. McBride will fall, a lot, as most of his PPR value comes from his high target numbers and they will drop like a stone this year. He’s a strong avoid for me.
Every kicker and DST
Let’s be clear, in fantasy you should take your DST and kicker in the last two rounds. There is no exception. Actually, I lie, the exception is if your league is smart enough not to include kickers and DSTs at all. Interestingly, if you had streamed kickers using my Razzball Streamers and Stashes articles last year, you would have gotten better fantasy output than all but two kickers. Please, oh please, never draft a DST or kicker earlier than the last two rounds.
As always, please leave your comments and dynasty trade questions below and please consider subscribing to make use of the many awesome tools available on the Razzball site. I’ll be back next week with more dynasty updates.
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