So you have a quarterback, right? I’m going to go out on a limb and say you do.  It is time to start looking into our statistical crystal ball and see what our QB’s matchups look like for the rest of the year.  This is an inexact science, but it is worth exploring.  All teams have at least 4 games under their collective belts.  In my opinion this is right on the edge of enough data to understand how a defense will play the rest of the year.  Will Tennessee turn things around? Will key players get injured? Can the Browns finish 10th overall in pass defense? Will Rod Woodson and Deion Sanders make comebacks and play for the Lions? Will Peyton Manning turn into Peyton Headroom and be sucked into a digitized world of commercials? These are all extremely plausible.  But we have to go from the information we have right now.    I’ve taken the info I gathered from my previous post on passing defenses (get hyper with the link or just scroll down a bit) and used it to determine an overall ranking for each quarterback’s remaining schedule and playoff schedule (weeks 15 and 16).

So here we go! We’ll go from easiest to hardest and I’ll skip over the JaMarcus Russels and Derek Andersons of the world (talent sure has!).

Overall Rank/Playoff Rank

1/6 Matt Hasselbeck: Living out west has its perks, and playing Arizona and St. Louis are two of them. Hasselbeck is an injury risk and I would hate to tether all my hopes to his gimpy back and ribs, but if you are 0-5 and looking to make some crazy moves I could see trading your stud QB for Hass and another piece you need.  It could burn you, but even burnt baby back ribs can be tasty if you are drunk enough.

4/19 Aaron Rodgers: This is great news for Rodgers’ owners. He has been having trouble with his o-line, but with a weak schedule he should be able to put up decent numbers as long as his fibula stays in one piece. But then he does have a tough playoff schedule going to Pittsburgh and staying home against Seattle.  He should help you get to the playoffs, but that away game at Pittsburgh will be a tough one to start the fantasy playoffs.

7/12 Carson Palmer: Carson has been great in the 4th quarter, but just a middle of the road fantasy QB overall. These stats  indicate that he has a chance to up those numbers for the rest of the year and I think he can.  The Bengals seem to be getting better every week and confidence breeds more confidence and if that confidence breeds with Tony Robbins we’ll have a huge confidence baby with scary big white teeth.

9/10 Jay Cutler: He will continue to gain confidence in his receivers and with just a fair to middling defense he will need to throw enough to make him a decent fantasy quarterback and with his schedule it shouldn’t be all that difficult. I’m buying.

10/1 Kurt Warner: Warner really has the sweetest deal out of all the QBs. When playoff time comes around he goes up against A number 1, certified, God-awful defenses in Detroit and St. Louis.  Many of these rankings can change as the season progresses, but Detroit and St. Louis are not going to magically transform into the ’85 Bears or even 8.5 of the ’85 Bears. So do you buy old man Warner with a good chance that you are buying a hip replacement surgery as well? Well, this is another high risk, high reward play. If you do take the risk make room in the guest house for his towel boy Leinart.

11/9 Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben has been a top 5 QB this year in about every format.  It looks like he has a good chance to keep those kind of numbers up with a fairly easy schedule the rest of the season.  You probably can’t buy him without paying for it, but I don’t think you should sell him high either.

13/17 Peyton Manning: Yeah, that Peyton Manning.  I will go out on a limb and say he’ll be okay the rest of the season.

14/3 Matt Schaub: Schaub has been a top 5 QB this season and will continue to be.  His team is young, and he’s no Peyton Manning, but he can put up fantasy numbers that will make you glad you got him in the late rounds while others got Peyton instead of oh, the great and powerful Ronnie Brown! Schaub has a decent schedule, but a very nice playoff schedule with St. Louis and Miami on tap.  Be glad you drafted him and do a “Matt Schaub better stay healthy dance” before you tuck your kids in tonight.

17/3 Drew Brees: Brees has a similar schedule to Schaub, but he’s Drew Brees.  He has some tough games like this weekend’s against the Giants, but both his playoff games are in the dome and against Dallas and Tampa Bay.  Unless both of those teams get their shizz in order real soon I see Brees picking them apart. And you really can’t ask for better conditions than dome, recirculated air, to throw in the winter.

18/2 Philip Rivers: Rivers has a nice playoff schedule at home in the sunny confines of Saint James and is just too good to not put up decent numbers even against good defenses, but he does have a rough patch (he probably should have a dermatologist check it out) against the Giants, Philly and Denver weeks 10-12, and if he has a few bad games there it would be a great time to grab him for an easy stretch run.

19/15 Tom Brady: Tom Terrific has a fairly tough schedule with some cake walks interspersed. His playoff games are lot like his overall schedule. The first game is at Buffalo which has a very underrated secondary and a chance for horrible weather and then a game at home against a horrid Jacksonville secondary. Just like his schedule, Brady has played with sporadic effectiveness.  He will get things going and when he does it won’t really matter who the Pats are playing so I wouldn’t worry too much about Brady, but I wouldn’t run out and trade your first born for him or anyone’s first born for that matter; I think it might be illegal.

20/16 Joe Flacco: The Unibrow Bomber has a semi-tough schedule.  Not devastatingly tough, but tough enough to make you go live in a cabin in the woods and mail in a couple games.  His schedule really is about as average as you can get, so don’t throw him out with the baby or however that saying goes.

28/29 Eli Manning: Manning has been great, but he’s got a tough row to hoe and Eli just doesn’t look like the burly farm-hand type. He has shown me a lot this season and I don’t see why he couldn’t beat the odds, but in fantasy football we like taking the path of least resistance and that would be trading Manning for a QB with a row that’s already been hoed.

30/25 Donovan McNabb: Donovan, when healthy, has been amazing this year.  In that offense he is almost matchup proof, but the numbers aren’t on his side. The fact that his two playoff games are at home is nice, but who knows what the weather will be like. Two games against the Giants are depressing the numbers a bit and should be.  With his injury history I’m not crazy about his prospects to lead you to a fantasy football title this year.

31/30 Tony Romo: He has two games on the road in the fantasy playoffs verse the Saints and Redskins who are both in the top 10 in pass defense right now. Romo can put up big numbers, and is the epitome of a fantasy quarterback, but his schedule makes it look like it’s the perfect sell high time. And no, selling high does not mean to smoke the ganga and then log onto your teams and start throwing out trades.

32/32 Matt Ryan: Ok, I love Matt Ryan and this pains me to say, but you need to sell him, sell him like he’s your kid’s last candy bar and selling it will send him to soccer camp for a month and give you sweet, sweet, peace and quiet. Ryan’s next two games are the Bears at home and then a game at Dallas.  He should be able to put up decent numbers there, but then his next 8 out of 9 games are against top 10 pass defenses. I own him and am not doing handstands right now, not that I could.

So do you really trade Matt Ryan for Matt Hasselbeck? Probably not.  Hass is an injury just waiting to happen and a healthy Matt Ryan is worth a lot more than a tractioned Matt Hasselbeck.  And, like I said, these numbers will change and might change drastically.  I’m using them as a rough guide.  I did not find this anywhere near talking, burning shrubbery.

I will update this chart in a couple weeks and see where they stand.  It will be interesting to see how much it fluctuates.

  1. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    I give Reggie Wayne, I get Slaton/Palmer. Yay or nay?

  2. Sos says:
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    2 questions in a .5ppr. Pick 2 for this week: rice, lynch, L T, hightower. Also, would you give rice, hightower, and walter for r. White, washington, and chester taylor? Better with mccoy instead of taylor?

  3. p0rk burn says:
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    @Asdrubal Bastardo: How are you at WR? Palmer looks like he’s back, Slaton looks like he isn’t. I wouldn’t do this if you think you are upgrading a RB by plugging in Slaton, but if you are deep at WR and your QB is Leftwich, Russel, or anybody on the Browns you gotta do something . . .

    @Sos: Ouch, I think your backs are playing 3 of the top Ds this week . . . I wouldn’t go with Rice against the Vikes D and LT is playing a tough D in the Broncos – and LT also hasn’t shown he deserves a vote of confidence – so that leaves you with Hightower and Lynch. Hightower should be able to do something against the Hawks, but Wisenhunt is saying he wants to get Beanie more involved. Lynch going against the Jets is also a rough matchup. Lynch and Hightower, final answer.

    Now for a question of my own (What, you think I’m only here to help?): I have a slot to fill with Julius, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush, or Lesean McCoy. I’m already rocking Pierre Thomas, so the game seems to be pick the other Saints RB that will pick up PT’s scraps.

  4. p0rk burn says:
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    @Sos: @p0rk burn: And I wouldn’t do that trade. Its not horrible horrible, but I don’t think its worth it.

  5. Christopher says:
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    Just received this offer:
    I give Hightower/Hakeeem Nicks, I get Westbrook/Mark Bradley.

    My RBs are: MJD, Ronnie Brown, Bradshaw and Hightower
    MY WRs are: CJ, Roddy, Driver, DJax, Caldwell, Jones (HOU), Nicks

    We start 3 WRs and one W/T; 12-team non-PPR.

  6. Christopher says:
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    @Christopher: I forgot to add that I also have McCoy as an RB.

  7. Harley says:
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    2 QB league, I have Brady, Carson and Hasselbeck. I need a WR (start 3 and mine are all #3 guys). I can trade Carson + Crappy WR for Jennings + Crappy QB (Henne, Bulger, Anderson)…pull the trigger? If so, which QB would you ask for in return?

    I also was offered Desean Jackson for Carson straight up and McNabb and Santonio Holmes for Brady…Thoughts?

    My WRs are:
    Braylon Edwards
    Roy Williams
    Antonio Bryant
    Bernard Berrian
    Devin Hester

  8. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Sos: i’d request mccoy instead of taylor and probably pull the deal. is rice you RB3? if so i would definitely do it. mccoy is an injury away from giving you rice’s numbers (and we know that westy is probably gonna miss time at some point), and washington should replace hightower’s numbers. plus you are getting a WR1. so yeah, unless rice is your RB2, i’d definitely do it, and even if he is your RB2 but you have a RB3 you are comfortable plugging in until washington or mccoy gets a chance for 20+ touches i’d do it.

    @Christopher: i’d do that in a heartbeat. i don’t think westy stays healthy all year, but with your depth and already owning mccoy, i’d say it’s worth taking him on by giving up your RB4 and you WR4/5/6.

  9. adamh says:
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    Ive got Rivers and Hasselbeck, stud WR’s and a marginal at best RB core. Would you dare trade Rivers away for a solid RB and maybe a mediocre backup QB?

  10. Plainview says:
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    I am considering packaging Romo and Marshawn Lynch to target a better QB – what level QBs should I target? I was thinking Rivers, Warner or Cutler – good/bad deal on any of those?

  11. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @adamh: @Plainview: A lot depends on where you are in the standings. if you feel you need to make up ground quickly then take some risk, but if you are still in the hunt be careful.

    @Plainview: I would see if you get Cutler straight up for either those players.

    @adamh: I wouldn’t. Rivers is much more reliable than Hass.

  12. adamh says:
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    I guess the move is to keep them both and cherry pick the matchups and roll with Rivers in the playoffs. Thanks.

  13. Harley says:
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    @Doc, please advise on my question – comment #7…thanks

  14. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Harley: I’d work with that first trade. I think Jennings will get things turned around. Those QB’s are painfully bad, but I’d probably go with Bulger because he is playing Detroit on Brady’s bye, but that’s the only reason.

  15. Beau says:
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    It pains me to even have to ask, but which 2 rb do i play this week: LT, Lynch, Cadillac. Ive got driver in my flex spot with marshall and andre starting at wr. Thanks!

  16. Drew says:
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    I give: TO, Beanie Wells
    I get: Ryan Grant

    I think that Grant is going to be a best over the next few games. My plan would be to ride him out for 4 weeks, then sell him high before his brutal playoff schedule.

    RB(2): LT, Benson, PT Bruiser, Wells, L. Washington
    WR (3): Megatron, TO, Roy Williams, Royal, C. Henry

    fwiw, I have another deal on the table that has me giving up L. Washington to get Avery.

  17. Nick says:
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    Is there anyone I should grab before the wire gets frozen…I have Folk and Crosby at K and Folk is on bye so why not just dump him and get something that could turn into a solid 3rd WR or flex…MaClin, M. Moore, Choice, Collie, F or C Taylor, Bell, Coffee…someone not to popular, 10 team h2h non-ppr…

  18. Matt B says:
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    Doc/All-
    I need help on a few fronts in my 10-team PPR
    1) RB to drop: F Jackson or J Harrison?
    2) Would you add Maclin and/or Garcon and drop Knox, Massaquoi?
    3) Best flex play PPR: M Lynch, J Cotchery, Harvin, or from 2) above?

    Thanks

  19. ryan says:
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    I have McNabb as my lone QB. Buddy of mine is shopping Drew Brees.
    I have to offer:
    WRs: Colston, Marshall, Driver, Manningham, S. Holmes
    RBs: Gore, Chris Johnson, Westbrook, Ryan Grant
    TE: Celek

    He is also shopping Witten. He just got Brees, J. Lewis, and Antonio Bryant in a deal for his Braylon, Eli, and Benson.

  20. Calogero says:
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    Larry Fitz is one WR, but with Calvin looking unlikely I’m going to need an alternate

    I have Breaston, but I’m a little skeptical about playing 2 Cards. Start Breaston or pick up Sidney Rice?

  21. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Beau: Caddy and Lynch. I don’t trust LT at all.

    @Drew: I like it…I’m not sure if TO is going to be productive in that Buffalo offense at all. Not sure if I’d give up Leon to get Avery though.

    @Nick: I’d grab Choice out of that group. Skip Peete (Dallas RB’s coach) is saying it could be several weeks before Barber is 100% again.

    @Matt B: Ugh, do you have to? I guess Harrison since they are being bullheaded about starting Jamal Lewis, but I don’t like dropping either. I’d drop Massaquoi for Maclin. Play Lynch as your flex.

    @ryan: For what you have to pay, I’m not sure it’s worth upgrading from McNabb to Brees. Could see if Driver + McNabb gets it done though.

    @Calogero: I wouldn’t feel too bad about starting both Cards. Warner’s going to throw it 35-40 times or more, there’s plenty of catches to go around. If you feel your team has an edge this week though, and would rather diversify your risk, Rice is a decent play. I’d prefer Breaston.

  22. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Doc: rb ranks for this week have westbrook quite a bit higher than jacobs,and grant 6th,westbrook 8th and jacobs 17th,do you agree with these rankings?

  23. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @mgeoffriau: need you opinion on post #22 also please

  24. Beau says:
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    @mgeoffriau: Thats what I was thinking, especially after the defense post the other day with CAR being so bad against the run. Its just sad to sit LT (1st round) for Cadillac.

  25. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Definitely Grant first. I think Jacobs’ low ranking is mostly due to NO’s run defense stats. I’m not convinced they are actually that good of a run defense — I think they suppress run totals against middling and bad teams by getting a big lead with that offense. I’d rather play Jacobs and get 16-24 carries against NO than play Westbrook and get 8-14 carries against Oakland.

  26. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @mgeoffriau: that was my thinking,westbrook hasnt had one of his typical games yet,80 rushing 59 recieving and im hesitant about starting him yet,thanks again

  27. matthole says:
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    @mgeoffriau: was offered kevin smith or ray rice and greg olsen for desean jackson and cadillac williams…..10 team .5ppr league, 2 RB, 3WRs

    Current roster: turner, portis, hightower, sproles, cadillaw, willie parker
    jennings, welker, desean jackson, massaquoi, syd rice, maclin

    QBs: rivers, ben, matt hass

    would you pull the trigger, and if so which RB would you take rice or smith? Thanks

  28. matthole says:
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    Heap is current TE

  29. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @matthole: I’d go Rice, and I would probably accept that offer. Rice looks like he could have a beast of a season. Losing DeS-Jax hurts, but upgrading your RB2 (and yes, I think Rice is better than Portis, Sproles, Caddy, especially in PPR) at the cost of your WR3 makes sense. The upgrade from Heap to Olsen is a bonus.

  30. matthole says:
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    @mgeoffriau: shwing

  31. Matt B says:
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    @mgeoffriau: Thanks! What about Massaquoi or Garcon in a PPR for the rest of the year? Could Garcon (given his size/blocking ability) stay at the #2 with Gonzo/Collie at the slot? I think that could give him huge value but I also don’t like that he averages 2-3 receptions a week…

  32. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Matt B: Tough call in PPR for the rest of the year. Wayne and Clark are the only certainties in that offense — Manning isn’t going to force the ball to Garcon or Collie, and you have Gonzo’s return mixing things up again. On the other hand….Cleveland’s passing game just sucks. 1 catch for 16 yards isn’t too promising for his first week sans Braylon. I think it’s Garcon just for the Indy offense, but I’d pursue other options…Sidney Rice maybe?

  33. Beau says:
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    Trying to work out a trade to upgrade my RB situation, with plenty of WR stock to work with. Ive got:

    RB: Forte, Rice, DMC, JJ, Bell
    WR: Wayne, Marshall, Andre, VJax, Boldin

    He has Turner, Portis…and thats pretty much all Id be interested in, anyone see a match? I feel good about my top 2 backs, but would love to use my WR depth to upgrade. He offered me turner and winslow for wayne and marshall, i said hell no and countered vjax and dmc for turner.

  34. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Beau: If he doesn’t like that offer, I think you could substitute Bell or JJ for DMC if he prefers. Out of your WR group I’d try to keep Wayne, Andre, and either Marshall or VJax. Nobody else in the league needs WRs?

  35. Beau says:
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    @mgeoffriau: Well, I havent really been able to stir up much negotiating except from the guy who has AP and Jacobs and told me that AP was completely untouchable.

    Idiot.

    I felt the same way as you, wanting to keep wayne, andre, and marshall and dealing either vjax or boldin. I didnt think hed go for boldin and honestly i still think boldin could finish stronger than jackson or most others.

  36. Bofum says:
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    Pick 2

    Mason
    Maclin
    Bowe
    Harvin
    Avery

  37. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    Bowe and Avery.

  38. Tankass says:
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    @Doc – I think Hasselback has a chance to put up great numbers with those weapons at wr and with that schedule, but they are starting a 4th string left tackle, a 2nd string left guard, a second string center, and their starting center at right guard. With Hasselback already nursing two cracked ribs is their any chance that he is going to make it out of this week?

    @beau – McFadden is a bust right now, and you are trying to get Turner after his biggest week of the season (3tds) and offering VJax who just had 4 catches for 50 yards. Also how can you call someone an idiot for not wanting to trade the guy that was pretty much the consensus #1 pick and its putting up #1 pick numbers. If you want to get a top tier rb you have to offer a top tier wr unless you are trading with a moron or someone who is really hurting at a position.

    ???? – Lynch of McCoy this week?

  39. herschel says:
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    12 team ppr league. pick 2 of 3.

    heath miller
    greg olson
    donnie avery

    thanks in advance.

  40. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Tankass: Lynch over McCoy.

    @herschel: Miller and Avery.

  41. herschel says:
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    thanks @mgeoffriau

    one more. which of these def/st options do you like best?

    cinci vs hou
    chi @ atl
    sea vs ari

  42. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @herschel: Hmm…not a great selection there. At gunpoint I’d take Cincinnati, but I don’t love it.

  43. herschel says:
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    thanks….thats who ive got right now, and i dont love it either. at least there at home……

  44. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    @p0rk burn: My other receivers are Bowe, Walter, Hester, Rice, and Massoqui. So I would be alright at WR. But the trade was geared towards an upgrade at RB, moreso than an upgrade at QB because I have Brady and Orton (2 QB league)

  45. Steve says:
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    Holt or Royal this week?

  46. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    @Steve: Royal, most def

  47. Jeff says:
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    In 100 mil salary league

    I give:
    Drew Brees (13mil for another year)
    Andre Johnson(11mil)
    Ray Rice(2 mil and can resign for 6 next year)

    I get:
    AP(5mil for 3 more years)
    Roy E Williams(15mil for 3 years, not likely to keep next year)
    Matt Hasselback(3mil for another year, would be my QB1)

    thoughts?

  48. Beau says:
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    @Tankass: McFadden may be a bust for now, but its also to an owner who I know has a huge man crush on DMC. Frankly Vjax + potential RB2 for turner who has been inconcistent and has high value after a strong week isnt that outrageous of an offer from which to negotiate. Granted I would never do it the other way, but thats what trade negotiations are.

    Furthermore, of course the guy would be an idiot for trading AP without getting back at least 2 of my top WRs or one of them and a top RB, Im not suggesting he should give him to me for any less, I was just suggesting that the whole “untouchable” tag is idiotic. In reality if someone offered you fair value for a top player, such as AP or pujols in baseball, and there are fair offers, any smart owner should at least listen. If I offered him andre johnson, reggie wayne, and forte for AP and a WR2 shouldnt he listen? Why put the “untouchable” tag and not even listen? Im pretty sure fangraphs has a nice article about the absurdity of the “untouchable” tag in real life.

  49. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Jeff: thats great for next year but wouldnt you be throwing in the towel early on this year?i mean ap is an upgrade over anyone but roy stinks and hasselback wont come close to breese numbers even if he stays healthy,and i doubt that

  50. Drew says:
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    Pick 2:

    Benson
    Grant
    PT Bruiser
    LT2

    .5 ppr

    I’m leaning Benson & Grant

  51. Christopher says:
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    Starting DJax, Driver and Roddy this week
    Need one more WR to start in my W/T slot; 12-team, non-PPR, standard scoring wit 1 pt/20 return yds:

    Caldwell (CIN) v. HOU

    or

    Nicks @ NO

  52. hacienda says:
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    What do you think about playing Jermichael Finley (vs. Det) over Owen Daniels (vs. Cin) this week?

  53. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Hey guys. There’s a new post up on running back matchups for this week by Drew to accomany @mgeoffriau:’s awesome passing matchup post. Check it out!

    @Jeff: I think I’d hold off. I love AP, but that is a really nice threesome you have.

    @Drew: Grant and Benson

    @Christopher: Caldwell

    @hacienda: It’s a calculated risk that I’d probably take.

  54. Sean says:
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    I have Rivers and Favre at QB in a league where QB’s get 4 points per TD. We can start a QB at Flex and I usually do.

    My 3 starting WR’s are R. White, D. Jackson and S. Moss. (Gage and M. Wallace on my bench)

    The guy who has Warner is pathetically weak at WR – Marshall, Avery, Randle El.

    I’m fairly certain I could get Warner (who has great playoff matchups) for any one of my 3 wideouts but I’m afraid it would hurt my team in the short term. Do you think its worth it to perhaps offer like S. Moss for Warner or would I be too pathetic at WR then?

Comments are closed.