Welcome to one of my favorite football days of the year. What’s better than a special day set aside for great food and wall-to-wall football? No matter if the matchups are prime or lackluster, it’s football and there’s always some nice prop plays to make the action more interesting. That’s the focus today – Prop Plays!
I have a few nice options below that I really like. In one, I make the case to bet the UNDERs, which is something I don’t normally do. If you like them, feel free to throw a unit or two on them, if you don’t that’s OK too. Let me know in the comments below what you like. Let’s have a fun day together.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs (RUSH YDS, ANYTIME TD): David Montgomery is still listed as Questionable with the shoulder injury. Even if he plays, it stands to reason the lions-share of the RB duties will fall to Jahmyr Gibbs. Running behind the top O-Line in football, and a defense ranked 21st in fantasy scoring to RBs over the past five weeks, this is a smash play. Gibbs’ rushing props are between 72-75 YDS, a number he hovers around or surpasses each week sharing the workload with Montgomery. Anytime TDs across the books are sitting in the -165 to -175 range right now but if you really feel strongly about this one, try the 2+TD prop, which is in the +300 to +330 range. Giddy Up!
Jameson Williams (REC YDS, ANYTIME TD): Looking at our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool, the Bears are one of the better defenses in limiting total WR points, but wideouts in particular tend to find success (64% of WR points come from wideouts). That plays right into Jameson Williams’ hands as he scores 71% of his fantasy points out wide according to our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool. His REC YDS prop is in the low 50s right now, a number he’s surpassed in every home game this season and 7 of 9 games overall. His anytime TD prop is more of a longshot play of course but here’s a supporting stat, three of his four TDs have come at home.
Keenan Allen (REC): Earlier in the season, the Lions defense was consistently one of the most friendly to WRs in our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool but that has changed recently, as they now sit about league average. That said, slot WRs are still finding success and that bodes well for Keenan Allen. I’m not going to get crazy and bet his YDS and TD prop, but receptions alone look promising here. His prop sits at 4.5 REC across the main books, a number that looks attractive given his increased TGT share lately, which was at 15 last week.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle (RUSH YDS, REC, ANYTIME TD): This may not be the prime Turkey Day game to watch but there’s still gold to mine. One that I’m going after is Rico Dowdle. Sure, the Dallas RB room has been a mess, but Dowdle has been getting consistent double-digit opportunities and the Giants defense is averaging 161 YDS/GM since Week 7. Wow! For his part, Dowdle has rushed for 50+ YDS in four of his last six games. He also has 5 RZ rushes in the last four games, which makes me optimistic of an ANYTIME TD. The prop I like most though is the REC prop, currently at only 2.5. He’s surpassed that in four of his last five.
Luke Schoonmaker (REC YDS): With Jake Ferguson out, Luke Schoonmaker becomes a sneaky REC YDS play. In the two games Ferguson missed, Schoonmaker went for 43 YDS (Week 2) and 55 YDS (Week 12), respectively. That may not look so great until you look at his REC YDS props, which sit at 29.5 to 30.5 this morning.
Tyrone Tracy (REC, ANYTIME TD): I love me some Tyrone Tracy in fantasy, but his betting lines are not very generous today. One line I do like though is his REC prop, which sits at 1.5 this morning. He practically catches everything thrown his way (as a former WR should) and with a veteran Drew Lock now at QB, expect the targets to be there. The ANYTIME TD prop is more of a wish on my part, but I don’t hate parlay.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Tua Tagovailoa (COMPLETIONS, PASS YARDS): I don’t normally do this but today, I’ll be betting the UNDERs for Tua Tagovailoa. Based on our Home/Road Player Splits tool, Tua’s PPR Index is 22% better at home. Add in a night game in chilly Green Bay against the 6th best DEF vs QB, I don’t see a big production game here. So, the UNDER for his 22.5 COMPLETIONS and 240.5 PASS YARDS props look to be the right play in this one.
De’Von Achane (RUSH+REC YDS, ANYTIME TD): On the flip side, I really like the OVERs for De’Von Achane. Achane is consistently getting the majority of RB workload each week which puts him in the end zone at least once in my mind, but what intrigues me most is his work in the passing game. He’s averaging six TGTs per game over the past five games so his combined RUSH+REC YDS prop of 89.5 looks to be achievable – especially considering the Packers rank 29th in allowing RB TGTs.
Josh Jacobs (RUSH YDS, ANYTIME TD): This also looks like a Josh Jacobs smash play. His RUSH YDS props hover between 71.5 and 74.5 YDS, which he’s surpassed every game since Week 5. He also has seven TDs over that stretch as well. SMASH!
That’s All Folks
Enjoy the Turkey Day game, eat some good food, be kind to that crazy Aunt or Uncle, and most of all best of luck with your prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
One last piece of business…all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, each week for our live Sunday show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X: @Derek_Favret and BlueSky: @dfavret.bsky.social.
Until next time, my friends!
What’s up TLB. . Both questions are PPR. Who would you start at Flex from these 3 JSN, Bucky Irving or Ken Walker? And at TE would you go with Hockenson or Engram. Thanks man.
Hey Beans, great to see you here.
I want the two RBs at Flex, especially if the projected 30 mph gusting crosswind has a factor in the SEA-NYJ game.
For TE, I have the same dilemma and I’m going with Engram – especially if Lawrence is back in there. I really don’t mind Hock though.
Good luck my friend!