Come one, come all. I have a tale I would like to share with you. I have a dear, dear friend named Nicholas, who is a Buffalo Bills fan and currently lives in a furious state of ceaseless agony. Not because he’s from New Jersey, no. But because he now watches all Bills games alone at home, in the dark, covered in a thick, wool blanket while clutching a sofa cushion desperately across his breast. “I’m in a bad place right now,” he says to me more than on occasion. And unfortunately, matters have only worsened since we last encountered, dear Razzballers.
Alas, my dear friend finds himself in the midst of a full-on frenzy, which has only clouded his ability to adequately manage his fantasy roster. In Week 10, he inadvertently left Tee Higgins at Flex in the heat of a ruthless playoff race. It’s mid-November. We’ve reached that point where frustrations, or even concentrations, may be coming to a boiling point, either in regard to your NFL team or your fantasy roster. If you’re 2-8, chances are your playoff hopes are over.
But please, please, do not be a New Jersey Nicholas. Do not allow your desperation as a fan to impact your attention to detail as a manager. And with a little bit of extra analysis from this week’s column, you could be sitting purdy (which I recommend in the column) on Sunday. Week 11 start vs. sit begins right now.
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START: Joe Burrow (ECR: QB13). Sure, the Bengals have a daunting matchup against the Ravens pass defense in Week 11, but Burrow is ranked far too low by ECR. Baltimore leads the league in fewest yards per attempt (4.7) by a wide margin and has been a nightmare for opposing offenses for much of the year, yet they allowed 33 points to the Browns and a QB14 finish to Deshaun Watson last week. Entering the game, Watson ranked as QB21 in terms of fantasy points per game. Burrow has been a top-seven option in each of the last three games and top-eight in four of the last five contests. Expect another top-10 finish in Week 11.
HAT TIP: Joshua Dobbs (ECR: QB15). Dobbs has totaled 72.8 fantasy points across the last three weeks while finishing inside the top seven fantasy quarterbacks in every game. He just threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Saints D and now goes on the road to face the Broncos, who are second-to-last in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.5). With Justin Jefferson returning, look for another big game from Dobbs as he turns in QB1 range production.
SIT: Brock Purdy (ECR: QB10). Somehow, Purdy is ranked ahead of both Burrow and Purdy in weekly ECR, as well as Sam Howell and Kyler Murray. That’s a tough position to defend and one that shouldn’t be reflected on your starting fantasy lineup. This week’s Buccaneers-49ers game has the fifth-lowest over/under of the week, meaning there aren’t going to be a ton of opportunities for Purdy to cash in. There’s a chance he can sneak into the back end of the top 12 at the position, but that isn’t the start you’re looking for at this point in the season.
START: Devin Singletary (ECR: RB20). Not the boldest recommendation that’s been made in this column, but Singletary owners should feel good about using the Texans’ back this week. Dameon Pierce still hadn’t suited up for practice through Wednesday, and even if he does, Singletary went off for 150 yards and two multi-purpose scores on 31 touches last week. Pierce hasn’t provided those kinds of numbers all season long, limping to a mere 3.0 yards per carry. With a matchup against the Cardinals’ run defense on deck, which ranks bottom-half in the league with 4.2 yards allowed per carry, Singeltary should post top-20 numbers again in Week 11.
HAT TIP: James Cook (ECR: RB25). The Jets are the second-best pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt (5.4) but are allowing the 12th-most yards per carry (4.3) in the league and rank 15th against fantasy running backs this season. The main reason Cook is a hat tip rather than a start is because of the low combined point total expected out of this matchup. Don’t be surprised if this is a 14-9 game. Still, Cook is coming off his second-career 100-yard rushing game (first since Week 2) on 14 touches, finishing just inside RB2 range. Don’t let the red ink scare you away from rolling him out there again.
SIT: James Conner (ECR: RB19). Conner returned from a four-week absence in Week 10 and finished with 73 yards on 16 carries, finishing as RB35. Then you take this week’s matchup against the Texans into account, who have experienced a renaissance in the front seven across the last five weeks and currently rank third-best in the league in yards per carry (3.5). On top of that, he’s hardly involved in the passing game, as he’s seen zero targets in his last two games active.
START: Marquise Brown (ECR: WR24). Hollywood gets his second week of the season with Kyler Murray at quarterback. Last week with Murray, Brown only had one catch for 28 yards on four targets. However, in eight games with Kyler at QB in 2022, Hollywood averaged six catches for 70.6 yards on 10 targets, finding the endzone three times. This week an easier matchup for Arizona in terms of pass defense, facing the 24th-ranked Texans who are allowing 246.4 passing yards per game.
HAT TIP: Rashee Rice (ECR: WR35): Hopefully, many of you aren’t in this position this week, but Rice makes for an interesting high-upside streaming option against the Eagles. Philly has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks third-worst in the NFL. Week 11’s Chiefs-Eagles tilt also has the potential to be a shootout, as the matchup’s over/under is currently at 45.5. I’d hammer the over on that. And if it even comes close to hitting, who is ranking second on the Kansas City roster in targets behind Travis Kelce?
SIT: Adam Thielen (ECR: WR22). Thielen and the Panthers face a top-ranked Cowboys defense who are allowing a second-best 166 passing yards per game. Thielen has seen top-10 passing defenses twice this season in the Saints and Falcons, racking up 54 and 12 yards in those games, respectively. It’s been three consecutive weeks in which Thielen hasn’t found the endzone, and that likely won’t change this week in a difficult spot for the Panthers receiver.
START: Cole Kmet (ECR: TE11). Although he mustered just seven half-PPR points in Week 10, Kmet was targeted at least seven times for the third-consecutive content. In that span, he has garnered 25 targets and translated that into 21 receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns — both of which came in Week 9 at the Saints. This week Kmet faces the Lions, who rank 10th-worst against fantasy tight ends this year. I’m not bullish on the Bears’ offense, but Kmet should be capable of top-eight production.
SIT: Evan Engram (ECR: TE9). Engram finished as TE26 last week despite seeing seven targets, as he turned that volume into a mere four grabs for 12 yards. That’s just a snapshot, but Engram has just two double-digit point totals in half-PPR this season. The Titans come to town this week, representing the only defense in the league yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end. Especially with how the Jaguars looked in Week 10, it’s best to keep Engram on your bench.