Week 12 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

This week, it’s the week before Thanksgiving in the U.S.

You haven’t heard me speak too much about the weather so far this season, but it’s going to be a factor going forward, especially in the outdoor stadiums of the Northeast and Northern Central parts of the country. I speak directly to the scenario in Cleveland tonight in a profile below. Rain can be a factor, but unless it’s going to be a downpour, I am usually more concerned with the wind.

We have our first six-team bye week of 2024: Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the New York Jets are all off this week. We’ll get a break from bye weeks during the Holiday week next week.

We’re in the final quarter of the fantasy regular season. Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WRs 3 and flexes and players we might sit.

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STARTS

Player: Quentin Johnston

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 30

Spread: +3.0 vs Baltimore Ravens

Win/Loss: +4.4, W/L Index 177

Home/Road: -2.2, H/R Index 74

Both of our indices tell me this is not the greatest idea. So why am I recommending Johnston? 1. I don’t have to worry about the weather in Los Angeles. 2. The Ravens allow 30 PPR points per game to wideouts, where Johnston lines up 92% of the time. 3. The Chargers’ passing game has been trending upward overall.

The Ravens’ Brandon Stephens has faced the third most targets and has allowed the third most receptions among cornerbacks – Johnston figures to lineup on his side often. Johnston has also had three games in a row with a TD reception, and I’m betting that surpassing the 10.84-point projection we have is attainable.             

Player: DeVonta Smith

Team: Philadelphia Eagles

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 35

Spread: -3.0 at Los Angeles Rams

Win-Loss: +0.4, W/L Index 103

Home/Road: +4.1, H/R Index 134

W/L is neutral, H/R is not in my favor. But again, weather won’t be a factor here, and Quentin Lake, who splits his time between free safety and slot corner, is a good matchup for Smith. The Rams give up more points out wide, but Smith plays nearly half his snaps out wide as well.

Smith has sandwiched two poor road performances around a very good one, so there is some risk in my bucking the overall trend, but this week I’ll assume it: this game has one of the highest over/under lines on the Week 12 slate. I think our 10.18-point projection will be surpassed.

Player: Jameson Williams

Team: Detroit Lions

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 33

Spread: -7.0 at Indianapolis Colts

Win-Loss: +3.9, W/L Index 163

Home/Road: +4.7, H/R Index 170

W/L loves the scenario, H/R not so much. So why do I, especially with Sam LaPorta looking like he’ll be ready to go for Week 12, like Jamo this week? Mostly because few current NFL players can take the ball and blow away their projection with 1 or 2 plays.

And the Lions seem to be at the top of their game. I’ll need the Lions to throw 25-30 times for me to feel good about this. I don’t normally like home-run hitters (baseball metaphor!), but sometimes, they’re better than alternatives.

The Colts have one of the better corner tandems (Jaylon Jones, Samuel Womack, and Kenny Moore), but I’m betting on the better team here. I think Jamo eclipses our 10.53-point projection.

 

 

SITS

 Player: Jerry Jeudy

Team: Cleveland Browns

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 29

Spread: +3.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Win/Loss: +0.7, W/L Index 109

Home/Road: +1.2, H/R Index 114

 As much as I love the high-rolling Cleveland Browns’ passing offense with Jameis Winston under center, Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland is home to some of the most inhospitable weather in the later part of most NFL seasons. There is supposed to be rain and snow throughout the day, the wind is forecasted to be 20+MPH, and the temperatures will be sub-40 degrees Fahrenheit. The over/under was dropped significantly from its open when the forecast went wide.

Toss in the fact that the Steelers’ defense gives up their share of passing yards, but only 9 TDs in 10 games, which is okay because the Browns don’t score many TDs (second-lowest PPG in 2024). Pittsburgh gives up 19.3 PPR PPG to wideouts, but divided by two players that is not a lot.

The indices are close to neutral. I think Jeudy will fall short of his 10.95-point projection we have in PPR.

Player: Trey Benson

Team: Arizona Cardinals

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 30

Spread: -1.0 at Seattle Seahawks

Win/Loss: +2.6, W/L Index 192

Home/Road: +3.2, H/R Index 248

 There can be times in a season when a player’s projections need to be corrected. There are also times when the correction is too much.

We currently have Benson scoring 8.33 PPR points this week. Given that Benson had 12.5 and 10.7 PPR points in the two games heading into the Cards’ Week 11 bye, that’s in his realm of outcomes.

My issue is that outside those two games, which were blowout wins for Arizona, Benson has not had more than 5 PPR points in a game, including one where he had 2.7 points on 12 touches.

Weeks 9 & 10 may have been a changing of the guard or the Cards may be feeling good enough about their playoff position that they’ll ease James Conner’s load to save him for January, but I need to see Benson get more touches in a neutral game script. If the Cards do that or manage to blow out the Seahawks in Seattle, I’ll be wrong.

Absent that, I’m going under 8.33 points.

Player: Deebo Samuel

Team: San Francisco 49ers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 10

Spread: +2.0 vs Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: +11.7, W/L Index 291

Home/Road: -7.0, H/R Index 62

 Going this far up (or down) the rankings is a little tricky, as I would only sit a higher-ranked player than I usually cover.

But the field I cover this week is either full of guys I think will beat their projections, guys I wouldn’t start in the first place, or guys that are on the same team as another player I’ve already covered.

So, I’m going to feature Deebo here as I would not feel bad about starting DeVonta Smith or Jameson Williams ahead of Deebo.

W/L favors my view, H/R favors Deebo on the road, so I’m not swayed by the indices.

The Packers are allowing a league-low 9.8 PPR PPG to wideouts and Deebo lines up wide 68% of the time. Deebo does line up in the slot almost a third of the time, but I feel better about George Kittle this week.

Our projection is 15.31 PPR points for Deebo, a number he hasn’t hit since Week 6. I’ll take the under here.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 11!