Week 14 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

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It’s odd, but sometimes I have good timing.

Last week, I recommended Jerry Jeudy as a start. That worked out well above my highest expectations.

I am not here to gloss myself. Marvin Harrison Jr. remains undefeated against me. And Tony Pollard was taken out by a fumble and then by game script.

Back to Jeudy and why I bring him up.

His performance on Monday was well outside the norm for, well, just about anyone. In our indices going into the game, Jeudy had a Win/Loss index of 96, meaning he scores 96 percent in wins of what he does in losses, in this case, his PPR points per game average was 9.5 in wins, 9.9 in losses. His Home/Road index was 95 as his PPR PPG average is 9.5 at home and 10.0 on the road. The averages are in all games Jeudy has participated in since the beginning of the 2023 season.

Averages are good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Numbers such as median and deviation are also useful in speaking to the volatility of a population of numbers. I’d go further but I see your attention waning.

Jeudy is a great example. In 2023, his highest PPR score in a game was 16.9 and it was the only game he finished as a WR2 (ranked 13 to 24 in a 12-team league: he was WR 17 for the week). In 2024 going into Cleveland’s Week 10 bye, his highest score was 14.3, good for WR 25. Since the bye, Jeudy has been WR 5 overall (26.2 PPR points), WR 19 (14.5), and WR 1 (40.5).

After Monday night’s game, one game out of 28 played, a loss on the road, Jeudy’s index numbers changed to 82 for Win/Loss, a 14-point drop, and 79 for Home/Road, a 16-point drop. If I look at those numbers without context, I think he is much better in losses and on the road. In this case, I don’t believe that tells the entire story.

On to Week 14, the ultimate week in many fantasy football leagues. Week 13 was kind of fun in an objective way. I always enjoyed making snow angels. As I write this, there are slight chances of rain in Nashville (Jaguars at Titans), East Rutherford (Saints at Giants), Philadelphia (Panthers at Eagles), and Pittsburgh (Browns at Steelers), and no high winds. Looks like a perfect week for football.

Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WR 3’s and flexes and players we might sit.

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STARTS

Player: Jayden Reed

Team: Green Bay Packers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 33

Spread: +3.0 at Detroit Lions

Win/Loss: -5.4, W/L Index 68

Home/Road: -1.5, H/R Index 89

A funny thing happened to my offseason supposition that the Packers would have one of the most entertaining air attacks in the NFL: Josh Jacobs arrived. The team that in 2023 had 441 rushing attempts and 611 pass dropbacks (41.9% rush, 58.9% pass) became the team that has had 372 rushing attempts and 362 pass dropbacks (50.7% rush, 49.3% pass) so far in 2024. Granted, part of this is due to Malik Willis playing two games early in the season when Jordan Love was out, but in the last five games, Love has only had more than 28 dropbacks once.

The one game was against Detroit at Lambeau. In that game, Love dropped back 39 times and Reed hauled in 5 of 6 targets for 113 yards as the Packers played from behind from early in the second quarter. That was Reed’s third 100-yard game of the season.

I look for the Lions to try to get on top of the Packers early again and for Green Bay to have to throw often. One thing that concerns me is Romeo Doubs’ availability as he works through the concussion protocol. I like Reed a bit better if Doubs is playing to share some of the attention the Lions are sure to pay Reed. The Lions are slightly above league average in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers but 10^th best for slot receivers to face; nearly ¾ of Reed’s points come in the slot.

Ford Field is covered: weather will not be a factor.

With all these conditions, I like Reed to beat his 11.81 PPR-point RazzballNFL projection. The indices line up nicely here as well.                                                                                                                                                                       

Player: Jaylen Warren

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 26

Spread: -6.5 vs Cleveland Browns

Win/Loss: -1.2, W/L Index 89

Home/Road: -1.1, H/R Index 90

The indices disagree with me, meaning that Warren fares slightly better in PPR in losses and on the road. Part of that was due to Warren’s best game of the season in Cleveland in Week 12, where he had 15.4 PPR points on 14 touches, including his only touchdown of 2024. It was a weird game in the snow in Cleveland on a Thursday night.

AFC Central intra-division games often go against expectations. The weather at this point looks all right with a small chance of rain, but I’d keep an eye on the wind. This could wind up being a ground and short-passing game. That would benefit Warren and make the over on his 9.43-point forecast attainable for the fourth week in a row.

Player: Jameson Williams

Team: Detroit Lions

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 31

Spread: +3.0 vs Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: +4.0, W/L Index 164

Home/Road: +4.1, H/R Index 157

We land on Jamo again. I’ve been dubious in the past, but a funny thing happened on the way here: Williams started seeing targets again, 25 in the last four games. Opportunities are welcome anytime but in a player with game-breaking speed, essential. He’s only cashed one of those targets, but it was a 64-yarder against the Jaguars.

The Packers are tougher than the Jags, and Jamo was suspended for the Lions’ first meeting with Green Bay, but I’ll bet that Williams beats his RazzballNFL 11.82-point forecast on one play Thursday.

 

 

 

SITS

 Player: Darnell Mooney

Team: Atlanta Falcons

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 36

Spread: +5.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Win/Loss: +3.3, W/L Index 146

Home/Road: +3.2, H/R Index 146

 Yes, I’m picking on the guy at the very bottom of the WR 3 rankings. I also confess I considered making Mooney a start and I could be just clever enough that my flip-flop may burn me.

As I began looking at the near-term numbers I just couldn’t convince myself that even a “revenge game” narrative for Kirk Cousins would make me believe he will turn it around this week. He has no touchdowns in his last three starts to go with six interceptions. Something is wrong there.

It doesn’t help that Mooney hurt his hamstring in the Week 11 game, and it didn’t look like he was 100 percent in Week 13 after their Week 12 bye. Mooney didn’t top 27 yards in either game.

Everyone except Drake London has suffered in this stretch. The indices are not on Mooney’s side as a road underdog. If Mooney beats our modest 10.55-point forecast he’ll do it from my bench.

Player: Keenan Allen

Team: Chicago Bears

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 32

Spread: +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers

Win/Loss: -3.2, W/L Index 83

Home/Road: -4.0, H/R Index 80

 Alert: Keenan Allen did not participate in the first practice of the week on Wednesday – if necessary, I will add an alternate sit in the Comments section below the article.

The Bears have seen how good Keenan Allen can still be in the last two weeks as he’s hauled in 14 of 23 targets for 159 yards and 3 TDs with the Bears coming back from 14-point and 21-point deficits.

I believe this will be two teams desperate to win Sunday. The thing is, the 49ers have not been beaten by the pass, it’s been their inability to stop the run, especially against mobile quarterbacks, that has done them in the last three weeks. With 142 rushing yards in the Bears’ last 3 games, Caleb Williams fits that bill.

Allen has a modest 11.82-point forecast this week, but I’m betting he won’t meet it. If I’m wrong in bucking the indices, it’ll serve me right, but I am what I am.

Player: Jordan Addison

Team: Minnesota Vikings

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 26

Spread: -6.0 vs Atlanta Falcons

Win/Loss: +1.4, W/L Index 112

Home/Road: -1.1, H/R Index 91

There are a lot of things to like about Addison’s situation this week against Atlanta, not the least of which is that the Falcons allow the fifth-most points to wide receivers (fourth-most over the last six weeks).

The indices disagree given that the Vikings are home favorites but those aren’t what have me fading Addison this week.

It’s the fact that he tends to see less usage against defenses I’d expect him to do well against: the Vikings have played against four top-15 defenses for wide receivers and Addison has yet to reach 10 PPR points against any of them.

I don’t think he reaches our 13.18-point projection and I’m sitting him where I can.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 14!