I’ve been trying something different by letting the database table show favorable and unfavorable matchups based on agreements of both the Home/Road (H/R) splits and the Win/Loss (W/L) splits.
To review: in this section, columns 1 and 5 are pre-game and represent the player’s rank (RK), projected PPR points for the week (PROJ. FPTS). For H/R, home (H) or road (R) game in column H/R; in column H/R +/-, a positive number represents that the player scores more points on average at home than on the road, and a negative number represents that the player scores more points on average on the road than at home; H/R Index divides average points scored at home by average score on the road – 100 is neutral, greater than 100 favors home, less than 100 favors road – and the distance from 100 is the magnitude of the advantage. For W/L, the same principles apply, replacing W (wins) for H, and L (losses) for R. A “YES” in the Favorable column represents either a positive H/R +/- for a home game or a positive W/L +/- for a game that the player’s team is favored, or a negative H/R +/- for a road game or a negative W/L +/- for a game that the player’s team is an underdog; a “NO” represents either a negative H/R +/- for a home game or a negative W/L +/- for a game that the player’s team is favored, or a positive H/R +/- for a road game or a positive W/L +/- for a game that the player’s team is an underdog.
Starting in column 10, the data is post-game. Actual represents the player’s PPR points for the game. Act +/- is the variance from the projection. Act Rank is where the player ranked for the week among players from his position group. Game Result is based on the team’s result. Hit/Miss is a “HIT” if the Act +/- is a positive number for a “YES” in the Favorable column or a negative number for a “NO” in the Favorable column, and a “MISS” if the Act +/- is a positive number for a “NO” in the Favorable column or a negative number for a “YES” in the Favorable column.
I’ve hidden some of the columns used for projections to save space. I’m not able to carry formatting to articles, hence the Favorable and Hit/Miss text columns.
The Week 14 results for RBs are below – first, using the separation methodology:
RUNNING BACKS – HOME/ROAD |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
21 |
Woody Marks |
HOU |
KC |
11.0 |
R |
7.0 |
226 |
NO |
15.6 |
4.6 |
14 |
W |
MISS |
|
22 |
Bam Knight |
ARI |
LAR |
11.0 |
H |
1.6 |
116 |
YES |
6.4 |
-4.6 |
40 |
L |
MISS |
|
23 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
TB |
10.8 |
R |
0.8 |
117 |
NO |
15.4 |
4.6 |
15 |
W |
MISS |
|
24 |
Kareem Hunt |
KC |
HOU |
10.5 |
H |
-0.4 |
97 |
NO |
9.0 |
-1.5 |
29 |
L |
HIT |
|
25 |
Omarion Hampton |
LAC |
PHI |
10.5 |
H |
-0.2 |
99 |
NO |
14.7 |
4.2 |
17 |
W |
MISS |
|
26 |
Kyle Monangai |
CHI |
GB |
10.1 |
R |
-1.1 |
88 |
YES |
8.7 |
-1.4 |
31 |
L |
MISS |
|
27 |
David Montgomery |
DET |
DAL |
10.0 |
H |
-1.6 |
89 |
NO |
14.3 |
4.3 |
19 |
W |
MISS |
|
28 |
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
WAS |
9.7 |
H |
1.6 |
113 |
YES |
7.6 |
-2.1 |
35 |
W |
MISS |
|
29 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
ATL |
9.4 |
R |
1.0 |
110 |
NO |
8.6 |
-0.8 |
33 |
W |
HIT |
|
30 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
WAS |
MIN |
9.1 |
R |
3.1 |
185 |
NO |
5.2 |
-3.9 |
44 |
L |
HIT |
|
31 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
BAL |
8.9 |
R |
2.4 |
145 |
NO |
16.2 |
7.3 |
12 |
W |
MISS |
|
32 |
Kimani Vidal |
LAC |
PHI |
8.7 |
H |
4.3 |
179 |
YES |
11.4 |
2.7 |
21 |
W |
HIT |
|
33 |
Jordan Mason |
MIN |
WAS |
8.6 |
H |
3.8 |
152 |
YES |
11.2 |
2.6 |
22 |
W |
HIT |
|
34 |
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
CLE |
8.2 |
R |
-1.6 |
86 |
YES |
28.1 |
19.9 |
2 |
W |
HIT |
|
35 |
Blake Corum |
LAR |
ARI |
7.6 |
R |
-2.5 |
50 |
YES |
26.1 |
18.5 |
3 |
W |
HIT |
|
36 |
Tyjae Spears |
TEN |
CLE |
7.0 |
R |
-1.8 |
82 |
YES |
6.7 |
-0.3 |
37 |
W |
MISS |
|
37 |
Bhayshul Tuten |
JAC |
IND |
7.0 |
H |
-1.5 |
78 |
NO |
-1.5 |
-8.5 |
215 |
W |
HIT |
|
38 |
Samaje Perine |
CIN |
BUF |
6.9 |
R |
0.8 |
120 |
NO |
4.8 |
-2.1 |
46 |
L |
HIT |
|
39 |
Michael Carter |
ARI |
LAR |
6.8 |
H |
1.4 |
117 |
YES |
5.1 |
-1.7 |
45 |
L |
MISS |
|
40 |
Tyler Allgeier |
ATL |
SEA |
6.7 |
H |
-0.6 |
92 |
NO |
8.7 |
2.0 |
32 |
L |
MISS |
RUNNING BACKS – WIN/LOSS |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
21 |
Woody Marks |
HOU |
KC |
11.0 |
L |
7.3 |
240 |
NO |
15.6 |
4.6 |
14 |
W |
MISS |
|
22 |
Bam Knight |
ARI |
LAR |
11.0 |
L |
-3.8 |
64 |
YES |
6.4 |
-4.6 |
40 |
L |
MISS |
|
23 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
TB |
10.8 |
L |
2.4 |
166 |
NO |
15.4 |
4.6 |
15 |
W |
MISS |
|
24 |
Kareem Hunt |
KC |
HOU |
10.5 |
W |
-0.6 |
94 |
NO |
9.0 |
-1.5 |
29 |
L |
HIT |
|
25 |
Omarion Hampton |
LAC |
PHI |
10.5 |
L |
-8.1 |
60 |
YES |
14.7 |
4.2 |
17 |
W |
HIT |
|
26 |
Kyle Monangai |
CHI |
GB |
10.1 |
L |
7.1 |
333 |
NO |
8.7 |
-1.4 |
31 |
L |
HIT |
|
27 |
David Montgomery |
DET |
DAL |
10.0 |
W |
4.4 |
154 |
YES |
14.3 |
4.3 |
19 |
W |
HIT |
|
28 |
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
WAS |
9.7 |
L |
5.2 |
160 |
NO |
7.6 |
-2.1 |
35 |
W |
HIT |
|
29 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
ATL |
9.4 |
W |
-0.2 |
98 |
NO |
8.6 |
-0.8 |
33 |
W |
HIT |
|
30 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
WAS |
MIN |
9.1 |
W |
-1.8 |
69 |
NO |
5.2 |
-3.9 |
44 |
L |
HIT |
|
31 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
BAL |
8.9 |
L |
8.6 |
226 |
NO |
16.2 |
7.3 |
12 |
W |
MISS |
|
32 |
Kimani Vidal |
LAC |
PHI |
8.7 |
L |
11.3 |
349 |
NO |
11.4 |
2.7 |
21 |
W |
MISS |
|
33 |
Jordan Mason |
MIN |
WAS |
8.6 |
L |
5.5 |
180 |
NO |
11.2 |
2.6 |
22 |
W |
MISS |
|
34 |
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
CLE |
8.2 |
L |
6.0 |
168 |
NO |
28.1 |
19.9 |
2 |
W |
MISS |
|
35 |
Blake Corum |
LAR |
ARI |
7.6 |
W |
1.3 |
141 |
YES |
26.1 |
18.5 |
3 |
W |
HIT |
|
36 |
Tyjae Spears |
TEN |
CLE |
7.0 |
L |
-8.2 |
15 |
YES |
6.7 |
-0.3 |
37 |
W |
MISS |
|
37 |
Bhayshul Tuten |
JAC |
IND |
7.0 |
L |
-0.5 |
92 |
YES |
-1.5 |
-8.5 |
215 |
W |
MISS |
|
38 |
Samaje Perine |
CIN |
BUF |
6.9 |
L |
-2.8 |
41 |
YES |
4.8 |
-2.1 |
46 |
L |
MISS |
|
39 |
Michael Carter |
ARI |
LAR |
6.8 |
L |
0.0 |
0 |
YES |
5.1 |
-1.7 |
45 |
L |
MISS |
|
40 |
Tyler Allgeier |
ATL |
SEA |
6.7 |
L |
4.6 |
175 |
NO |
8.7 |
2.0 |
32 |
L |
MISS |
Including all 20 of the RBs ranked 21-40 by FantasyPros, 9 of them hit on H/R and 8 hit on W/L. I’m not being flexible: close does not count here. The favorables in H/R had 4 of 9 hits, and the unfavorables had 5 of 11 hits; in W/L, favorables had 3 of 8 hit, and the unfavorables had 5 of 12 hit.
And the common methodology for RBs:
RUNNING BACKS – FAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
22 |
Bam Knight |
ARI |
LAR |
11.0 |
H |
1.6 |
116 |
YES |
L |
-3.8 |
64 |
YES |
6.4 |
-4.6 |
40 |
L |
MISS |
|
35 |
Blake Corum |
LAR |
ARI |
7.6 |
R |
-2.5 |
50 |
YES |
W |
1.3 |
141 |
YES |
26.1 |
18.5 |
3 |
W |
HIT |
|
36 |
Tyjae Spears |
TEN |
CLE |
7.0 |
R |
-1.8 |
82 |
YES |
L |
-8.2 |
15 |
YES |
6.7 |
-0.3 |
37 |
W |
MISS |
|
39 |
Michael Carter |
ARI |
LAR |
6.8 |
H |
1.4 |
117 |
YES |
L |
0.0 |
0 |
YES |
5.1 |
-1.7 |
45 |
L |
MISS |
RUNNING BACKS – UNFAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
21 |
Woody Marks |
HOU |
KC |
11.0 |
R |
7.0 |
226 |
NO |
L |
7.3 |
240 |
NO |
15.6 |
4.6 |
14 |
W |
MISS |
|
23 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
TB |
10.8 |
R |
0.8 |
117 |
NO |
L |
2.4 |
166 |
NO |
15.4 |
4.6 |
15 |
W |
MISS |
|
24 |
Kareem Hunt |
KC |
HOU |
10.5 |
H |
-0.4 |
97 |
NO |
W |
-0.6 |
94 |
NO |
9.0 |
-1.5 |
29 |
W |
HIT |
|
29 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
ATL |
9.4 |
R |
1.0 |
110 |
NO |
W |
-0.2 |
98 |
NO |
8.6 |
-0.8 |
33 |
W |
HIT |
|
30 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
WAS |
MIN |
9.1 |
R |
3.1 |
185 |
NO |
W |
-1.8 |
69 |
NO |
5.2 |
-3.9 |
44 |
W |
HIT |
|
31 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
BAL |
8.9 |
R |
2.4 |
145 |
NO |
L |
8.6 |
226 |
NO |
16.2 |
7.3 |
12 |
W |
MISS |
|
40 |
Tyler Allgeier |
ATL |
SEA |
6.7 |
H |
-0.6 |
92 |
NO |
L |
4.6 |
175 |
NO |
8.7 |
2.0 |
32 |
W |
MISS |
Of the eleven players listed, 4 hit, 7 missed. It was a tough week for running backs in this range. The favorable hit, Blake Corum, had a higher-than-expected usage in the Rams’ blowout. Two of the unfavorable hits, Kareem Hunt and Zach Charbonnet, were narrowly under projections. Kenneth Gainwell is at the point where he is an every-week flex in leagues with more starting spots than most leagues. He could disappoint, but the boom weeks are hard to stomach on my bench. The RB2s all missed, but those games did not go as assumed IRL.
And for WRs, separating the DBs:
WIDE RECEIVERS – HOME/ROAD |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
21 |
Christian Watson |
GB |
CHI |
12.6 |
H |
-8.3 |
37 |
NO |
24.9 |
12.3 |
6 |
W |
MISS |
|
22 |
Jakobi Meyers |
JAC |
IND |
12.5 |
H |
0.3 |
102 |
YES |
14.8 |
2.3 |
19 |
W |
HIT |
|
23 |
Terry McLaurin |
WAS |
MIN |
12.1 |
R |
-1.3 |
92 |
YES |
7.1 |
-5.0 |
45 |
L |
MISS |
|
24 |
Tee Higgins |
CIN |
BUF |
11.9 |
R |
7.0 |
156 |
NO |
27.2 |
15.3 |
4 |
L |
MISS |
|
25 |
Khalil Shakir |
BUF |
CIN |
11.8 |
H |
-0.4 |
97 |
NO |
9.6 |
-2.2 |
33 |
W |
HIT |
|
26 |
Courtland Sutton |
DEN |
LV |
11.8 |
R |
-0.7 |
95 |
YES |
12.2 |
0.4 |
22 |
W |
HIT |
|
27 |
DK Metcalf |
PIT |
BAL |
11.7 |
R |
-1.8 |
87 |
YES |
21.8 |
10.1 |
7 |
W |
HIT |
|
28 |
Deebo Samuel |
WAS |
MIN |
11.6 |
R |
-6.3 |
59 |
YES |
6.7 |
-4.9 |
49 |
L |
MISS |
|
29 |
Adonai Mitchell |
NYJ |
MIA |
11.1 |
H |
0.9 |
124 |
YES |
3.4 |
-7.7 |
72 |
L |
MISS |
|
30 |
Alec Pierce |
IND |
JAC |
11.1 |
R |
-0.2 |
98 |
YES |
13.0 |
1.9 |
21 |
L |
HIT |
|
31 |
Chris Godwin |
TB |
NO |
10.7 |
H |
-2.5 |
85 |
NO |
10.5 |
-0.2 |
28 |
L |
HIT |
|
32 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
JAC |
IND |
10.7 |
H |
3.1 |
125 |
YES |
11.7 |
1.0 |
23 |
W |
HIT |
|
33 |
Troy Franklin |
DEN |
LV |
10.6 |
R |
2.5 |
142 |
NO |
4.1 |
-6.5 |
63 |
W |
HIT |
|
34 |
Romeo Doubs |
GB |
CHI |
10.3 |
H |
-0.7 |
93 |
NO |
0.0 |
-10.3 |
249 |
W |
HIT |
|
35 |
DJ Moore |
CHI |
GB |
10.0 |
R |
0.7 |
106 |
NO |
0.6 |
-9.4 |
99 |
L |
HIT |
|
36 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
GB |
9.9 |
R |
3.8 |
185 |
NO |
11.0 |
1.1 |
26 |
L |
MISS |
|
37 |
Quentin Johnston |
LAC |
PHI |
9.9 |
H |
-4.4 |
68 |
NO |
2.8 |
-7.1 |
81 |
W |
HIT |
|
38 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
KC |
9.4 |
R |
3.7 |
163 |
NO |
6.4 |
-3.0 |
50 |
W |
HIT |
|
39 |
Keenan Allen |
LAC |
PHI |
9.4 |
H |
3.0 |
128 |
YES |
5.2 |
-4.2 |
55 |
W |
MISS |
|
40 |
Xavier Worthy |
KC |
HOU |
9.4 |
H |
0.1 |
101 |
YES |
8.5 |
-0.9 |
38 |
L |
MISS |
WIDE RECEIVERS – WIN/LOSS |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
21 |
Christian Watson |
GB |
CHI |
12.6 |
W |
7.2 |
200 |
YES |
24.9 |
12.3 |
6 |
W |
HIT |
|
22 |
Jakobi Meyers |
JAC |
IND |
12.5 |
L |
4.7 |
157 |
NO |
14.8 |
2.3 |
19 |
W |
MISS |
|
23 |
Terry McLaurin |
WAS |
MIN |
12.1 |
W |
-4.6 |
62 |
NO |
7.1 |
-5.0 |
45 |
L |
HIT |
|
24 |
Tee Higgins |
CIN |
BUF |
11.9 |
L |
1.8 |
115 |
NO |
27.2 |
15.3 |
4 |
L |
MISS |
|
25 |
Khalil Shakir |
BUF |
CIN |
11.8 |
W |
0.5 |
104 |
YES |
9.6 |
-2.2 |
33 |
W |
MISS |
|
26 |
Courtland Sutton |
DEN |
LV |
11.8 |
W |
-0.6 |
95 |
NO |
12.2 |
0.4 |
22 |
W |
MISS |
|
27 |
DK Metcalf |
PIT |
BAL |
11.7 |
L |
2.1 |
118 |
NO |
21.8 |
10.1 |
7 |
W |
MISS |
|
28 |
Deebo Samuel |
WAS |
MIN |
11.6 |
W |
3.1 |
124 |
YES |
6.7 |
-4.9 |
49 |
L |
MISS |
|
29 |
Adonai Mitchell |
NYJ |
MIA |
11.1 |
L |
-3.5 |
32 |
YES |
3.4 |
-7.7 |
72 |
L |
MISS |
|
30 |
Alec Pierce |
IND |
JAC |
11.1 |
W |
0.2 |
102 |
YES |
13.0 |
1.9 |
21 |
L |
HIT |
|
31 |
Chris Godwin |
TB |
NO |
10.7 |
W |
0.0 |
100 |
YES |
10.5 |
-0.2 |
28 |
L |
MISS |
|
32 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
JAC |
IND |
10.7 |
L |
-3.1 |
75 |
YES |
11.7 |
1.0 |
23 |
W |
HIT |
|
33 |
Troy Franklin |
DEN |
LV |
10.6 |
W |
-2.4 |
82 |
NO |
4.1 |
-6.5 |
63 |
W |
HIT |
|
34 |
Romeo Doubs |
GB |
CHI |
10.3 |
W |
2.0 |
127 |
YES |
0.0 |
-10.3 |
249 |
W |
MISS |
|
35 |
DJ Moore |
CHI |
GB |
10.0 |
L |
1.2 |
113 |
NO |
0.6 |
-9.4 |
99 |
L |
HIT |
|
36 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
GB |
9.9 |
L |
7.0 |
781 |
NO |
11.0 |
1.1 |
26 |
L |
MISS |
|
37 |
Quentin Johnston |
LAC |
PHI |
9.9 |
L |
2.9 |
128 |
NO |
2.8 |
-7.1 |
81 |
W |
HIT |
|
38 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
KC |
9.4 |
L |
9.0 |
480 |
NO |
6.4 |
-3.0 |
50 |
W |
HIT |
|
39 |
Keenan Allen |
LAC |
PHI |
9.4 |
L |
-2.8 |
81 |
YES |
5.2 |
-4.2 |
55 |
W |
MISS |
|
40 |
Xavier Worthy |
KC |
HOU |
9.4 |
W |
5.5 |
197 |
YES |
8.5 |
-0.9 |
38 |
L |
MISS |
Home/Road had a hit rate of 60% (12 of 20), and Win/Loss had 8 hits (40%). In H/R, favorables hit on 5 of 10, unfavorables hit on 7 of 10. In W/L, favorables hit on 3 of 10, unfavorables hit on 5 of 10.
And WRs that had agreements in common going into Week 14:
WIDE RECEIVERS – FAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
28 |
Deebo Samuel |
WAS |
MIN |
11.6 |
R |
-6.3 |
59 |
YES |
W |
3.1 |
124 |
YES |
6.7 |
-4.9 |
49 |
L |
MISS |
|
29 |
Adonai Mitchell |
NYJ |
MIA |
11.1 |
H |
0.9 |
124 |
YES |
L |
-3.5 |
32 |
YES |
3.4 |
-7.7 |
72 |
L |
MISS |
|
30 |
Alec Pierce |
IND |
JAC |
11.1 |
R |
-0.2 |
98 |
YES |
W |
0.2 |
102 |
YES |
13.0 |
1.9 |
21 |
L |
HIT |
|
32 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
JAC |
IND |
10.7 |
H |
3.1 |
125 |
YES |
L |
-3.1 |
75 |
YES |
11.7 |
1.0 |
23 |
W |
HIT |
|
39 |
Keenan Allen |
LAC |
PHI |
9.4 |
H |
3.0 |
128 |
YES |
L |
-2.8 |
81 |
YES |
5.2 |
-4.2 |
55 |
W |
MISS |
|
40 |
Xavier Worthy |
KC |
HOU |
9.4 |
H |
0.1 |
101 |
YES |
W |
5.5 |
197 |
YES |
8.5 |
-0.9 |
38 |
L |
MISS |
WIDE RECEIVERS – UNFAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
Actual |
Act +/- |
Act Rank |
Game Result |
Hit/Miss |
|
24 |
Tee Higgins |
CIN |
BUF |
11.9 |
R |
7.0 |
156 |
NO |
L |
1.8 |
115 |
NO |
27.2 |
15.3 |
4 |
L |
MISS |
|
33 |
Troy Franklin |
DEN |
LV |
10.6 |
R |
2.5 |
142 |
NO |
W |
-2.4 |
82 |
NO |
4.1 |
-6.5 |
63 |
W |
HIT |
|
35 |
DJ Moore |
CHI |
GB |
10.0 |
R |
0.7 |
106 |
NO |
L |
1.2 |
113 |
NO |
0.6 |
-9.4 |
99 |
L |
HIT |
|
36 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
GB |
9.9 |
R |
3.8 |
185 |
NO |
L |
7.0 |
781 |
NO |
11.0 |
1.1 |
26 |
L |
MISS |
|
37 |
Quentin Johnston |
LAC |
PHI |
9.9 |
H |
-4.4 |
68 |
NO |
L |
2.9 |
128 |
NO |
2.8 |
-7.1 |
81 |
W |
HIT |
|
38 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
KC |
9.4 |
R |
3.7 |
163 |
NO |
L |
9.0 |
480 |
NO |
6.4 |
-3.0 |
50 |
W |
HIT |
Six in each domain, 2 hits in 6 in favorable, 4 hits in 6 in unfavorable. 50% of the population were hits, but mostly in the fades. Tee Higgins was the only forecasted WR2, and he more than doubled his projection in an unfavorable scenario. He was a big part of why the Bengals led for much of the game.
This is a column mainly for deep leagues where there are three WR slots and/or multiple W/R/T flex slots. The tools can be useful decision points higher up the rankings, but I’m looking for WR3s and flexes. I use the indices as a compass.
For the numbers below for Home/Road and Win/Loss: positive numbers mean a player scores more at home or in wins, and negative numbers mean a player scores more on the road or in losses. The H/R Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games and the W/L Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by those scored in losses: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more at home or in wins, and less than 100 means the player scores more on the road or in losses.
How I approach this: First, I need rankings: I choose FantasyPros as they’re free, and they use several analysts to amalgamate. Second, I look at the H/R and W/L databases for an edge. Third, I look at spreads and over/under for how the public sees the games (I use ESPNBET). Those are candidates. The work after would consume too much of this column, but I will say the free tools at RazzballNFL, as well as my PFF subscription, are great allies.
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!
About the column headings:
“RK” is where the player is ranked for the week
“TEAM” is the player’s team
“OPP” is the opposing team
“PROJ. FPTS” are the PPR projected points for the week for the player
I’ve added data points for defenses: the “PPR RANK” and “PPG ALLOW” are how the player’s opponent’s defense fares in fantasy against their position. For example, Rhamondre Stevenson plays against the Cincinnati Bengals: they are allowing the most (the ranks from 1-32 go from most to least) PPR points per game (PPG) to RBs at 32.5, which is the points they allow to all players for that position per game, not just one.
I’ve also added data points based on betting lines per ESPNBET: “IMP PTS” are the implied points a player’s team is expected to score, based on the “O/U,” the line for total points both teams are expected to score for that game, and the “SPREAD,” the amount of points the favorite gives to the underdog – a minus number designates the favorite, a plus number designates the underdog.
I’ll partition the RBs and the WRs, presenting the scenarios separately, and then the players that have agreement, favorable or unfavorable, in both scenarios. The column on the right is the decision point: “YES” is favorable and “NO” is unfavorable.
For Week 15, the RBs for H/R:
RUNNING BACKS – HOME/ROAD |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
21 |
Jaylen Warren |
PIT |
MIA |
13.2 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
H |
-0.9 |
92 |
NO |
|
22 |
Kenneth Walker III |
SEA |
IND |
12.8 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
H |
-1.9 |
87 |
NO |
|
23 |
Rico Dowdle |
CAR |
NO |
12.8 |
15 |
22.5 |
21.50 |
40.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
2.0 |
117 |
NO |
|
24 |
D’Andre Swift |
CHI |
CLE |
12.1 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
H |
0.2 |
102 |
YES |
|
25 |
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
DAL |
12.1 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
R |
1.1 |
110 |
NO |
|
26 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
CAR |
11.6 |
8 |
24.6 |
19.00 |
40.50 |
2.5 |
H |
-1.4 |
80 |
NO |
|
27 |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
NYG |
WAS |
11.1 |
7 |
24.7 |
24.50 |
46.50 |
-2.5 |
H |
-1.8 |
83 |
NO |
|
28 |
Omarion Hampton |
LAC |
KC |
11.1 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
R |
-0.3 |
98 |
YES |
|
29 |
Chuba Hubbard |
CAR |
NO |
11.0 |
15 |
22.5 |
21.50 |
40.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
2.9 |
124 |
NO |
|
30 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
WAS |
NYG |
10.9 |
2 |
28.5 |
22.00 |
46.50 |
2.5 |
R |
2.9 |
177 |
NO |
|
31 |
Kyle Monangai |
CHI |
CLE |
10.6 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
H |
-0.8 |
92 |
NO |
|
32 |
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
SF |
10.3 |
16 |
22.3 |
16.00 |
44.50 |
12.5 |
R |
-2.8 |
79 |
YES |
|
33 |
Bam Knight |
ARI |
HOU |
9.8 |
24 |
19.3 |
16.25 |
42.50 |
10.0 |
R |
0.5 |
105 |
NO |
|
34 |
Kareem Hunt |
KC |
LAC |
9.7 |
20 |
20.6 |
23.75 |
41.50 |
-6.0 |
H |
-0.5 |
95 |
NO |
|
35 |
Devin Singletary |
NYG |
WAS |
9.6 |
7 |
24.7 |
24.50 |
46.50 |
-2.5 |
H |
-0.3 |
96 |
NO |
|
36 |
Rhamondre Stevenson |
NE |
BUF |
9.6 |
6 |
25.0 |
24.00 |
49.50 |
1.5 |
H |
0.2 |
102 |
YES |
|
37 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
MIA |
9.4 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
H |
1.6 |
126 |
YES |
|
38 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
IND |
9.3 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
H |
1.1 |
111 |
YES |
|
39 |
Blake Corum |
LAR |
DET |
9.1 |
32 |
16.3 |
30.25 |
54.50 |
-6.0 |
H |
-4.1 |
38 |
NO |
|
40 |
David Montgomery |
DET |
LAR |
9.0 |
29 |
17.5 |
24.25 |
54.50 |
6.0 |
R |
-1.5 |
89 |
YES |
Not very agreeable.
The RBs for W/L:
RUNNING BACKS – WIN/LOSS |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
21 |
Jaylen Warren |
PIT |
MIA |
13.2 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
W |
-2.3 |
80 |
NO |
|
22 |
Kenneth Walker III |
SEA |
IND |
12.8 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
W |
-3.6 |
77 |
NO |
|
23 |
Rico Dowdle |
CAR |
NO |
12.8 |
15 |
22.5 |
21.50 |
40.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
6.7 |
168 |
YES |
|
24 |
D’Andre Swift |
CHI |
CLE |
12.1 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
W |
4.6 |
142 |
YES |
|
25 |
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
DAL |
12.1 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
L |
3.4 |
133 |
NO |
|
26 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
CAR |
11.6 |
8 |
24.6 |
19.00 |
40.50 |
2.5 |
L |
6.0 |
228 |
NO |
|
27 |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
NYG |
WAS |
11.1 |
7 |
24.7 |
24.50 |
46.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
-2.7 |
73 |
NO |
|
28 |
Omarion Hampton |
LAC |
KC |
11.1 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
L |
-8.1 |
60 |
YES |
|
29 |
Chuba Hubbard |
CAR |
NO |
11.0 |
15 |
22.5 |
21.50 |
40.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
4.9 |
141 |
YES |
|
30 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
WAS |
NYG |
10.9 |
2 |
28.5 |
22.00 |
46.50 |
2.5 |
L |
-0.9 |
85 |
YES |
|
31 |
Kyle Monangai |
CHI |
CLE |
10.6 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
W |
7.6 |
351 |
YES |
|
32 |
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
SF |
10.3 |
16 |
22.3 |
16.00 |
44.50 |
12.5 |
L |
10.7 |
210 |
NO |
|
33 |
Bam Knight |
ARI |
HOU |
9.8 |
24 |
19.3 |
16.25 |
42.50 |
10.0 |
L |
-4.1 |
62 |
YES |
|
34 |
Kareem Hunt |
KC |
LAC |
9.7 |
20 |
20.6 |
23.75 |
41.50 |
-6.0 |
W |
2.0 |
121 |
YES |
|
35 |
Devin Singletary |
NYG |
WAS |
9.6 |
7 |
24.7 |
24.50 |
46.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
0.7 |
111 |
YES |
|
36 |
Rhamondre Stevenson |
NE |
BUF |
9.6 |
6 |
25.0 |
24.00 |
49.50 |
1.5 |
L |
3.2 |
136 |
NO |
|
37 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
MIA |
9.4 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
W |
3.0 |
162 |
YES |
|
38 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
IND |
9.3 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
W |
3.2 |
138 |
YES |
|
39 |
Blake Corum |
LAR |
DET |
9.1 |
32 |
16.3 |
30.25 |
54.50 |
-6.0 |
W |
0.3 |
106 |
YES |
|
40 |
David Montgomery |
DET |
LAR |
9.0 |
29 |
17.5 |
24.25 |
54.50 |
6.0 |
L |
5.7 |
159 |
NO |
The WRs for H/R:
WIDE RECEIVERS – HOME/ROAD |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
21 |
DK Metcalf |
PIT |
MIA |
13.0 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
H |
-2.4 |
83 |
NO |
|
22 |
Stefon Diggs |
NE |
BUF |
12.8 |
6 |
25.0 |
24.00 |
49.50 |
1.5 |
H |
-1.8 |
87 |
NO |
|
23 |
Jauan Jennings |
SF |
TEN |
12.8 |
12 |
23.8 |
28.50 |
44.50 |
-12.5 |
H |
0.5 |
104 |
YES |
|
24 |
Emeka Egbuka |
TB |
ATL |
12.8 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
H |
-1.5 |
89 |
NO |
|
25 |
CeeDee Lamb |
DAL |
MIN |
12.8 |
21 |
20.1 |
27.00 |
48.50 |
-5.5 |
H |
-1.8 |
90 |
NO |
|
26 |
Ladd McConkey |
LAC |
KC |
12.7 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
R |
1.6 |
112 |
NO |
|
27 |
Courtland Sutton |
DEN |
GB |
12.7 |
23 |
19.6 |
20.00 |
42.50 |
2.5 |
H |
-0.6 |
95 |
NO |
|
28 |
Deebo Samuel |
WAS |
NYG |
12.5 |
2 |
28.5 |
22.00 |
46.50 |
2.5 |
R |
-5.6 |
62 |
YES |
|
29 |
Chris Godwin |
TB |
ATL |
11.7 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
H |
-3.0 |
82 |
NO |
|
30 |
Christian Watson |
GB |
DEN |
11.2 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
-6.8 |
49 |
YES |
|
31 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
JAC |
NYJ |
11.2 |
3 |
26.1 |
27.75 |
41.50 |
-14.0 |
H |
2.8 |
122 |
YES |
|
32 |
Michael Pittman Jr. |
IND |
SEA |
10.9 |
26 |
18.8 |
14.50 |
42.50 |
13.5 |
R |
-2.4 |
82 |
YES |
|
33 |
Khalil Shakir |
BUF |
NE |
10.8 |
30 |
17.2 |
25.50 |
49.50 |
-1.5 |
R |
-0.5 |
96 |
YES |
|
34 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
CLE |
10.6 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
H |
2.8 |
153 |
YES |
|
35 |
Jordan Addison |
MIN |
DAL |
10.6 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
R |
3.7 |
134 |
NO |
|
36 |
Mike Evans |
TB |
ATL |
10.3 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
H |
2.8 |
120 |
YES |
|
37 |
Adonai Mitchell |
NYJ |
JAC |
10.0 |
28 |
17.9 |
13.75 |
41.50 |
14.0 |
R |
0.8 |
122 |
NO |
|
38 |
Jerry Jeudy |
CLE |
CHI |
10.0 |
17 |
21.6 |
15.50 |
38.50 |
7.5 |
R |
-1.7 |
86 |
YES |
|
39 |
Jayden Reed |
GB |
DEN |
9.9 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
0.3 |
103 |
NO |
|
40 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
ARI |
9.6 |
4 |
25.8 |
26.25 |
42.50 |
-10.0 |
H |
3.6 |
161 |
YES |
The WRs for W/L:
WIDE RECEIVERS – WIN/LOSS |
|||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
21 |
DK Metcalf |
PIT |
MIA |
13.0 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
W |
3.9 |
138 |
YES |
|
22 |
Stefon Diggs |
NE |
BUF |
12.8 |
6 |
25.0 |
24.00 |
49.50 |
1.5 |
L |
2.8 |
126 |
NO |
|
23 |
Jauan Jennings |
SF |
TEN |
12.8 |
12 |
23.8 |
28.50 |
44.50 |
-12.5 |
W |
1.0 |
108 |
YES |
|
24 |
Emeka Egbuka |
TB |
ATL |
12.8 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
W |
2.2 |
118 |
YES |
|
25 |
CeeDee Lamb |
DAL |
MIN |
12.8 |
21 |
20.1 |
27.00 |
48.50 |
-5.5 |
W |
1.3 |
108 |
YES |
|
26 |
Ladd McConkey |
LAC |
KC |
12.7 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
L |
4.0 |
135 |
NO |
|
27 |
Courtland Sutton |
DEN |
GB |
12.7 |
23 |
19.6 |
20.00 |
42.50 |
2.5 |
L |
-1.6 |
89 |
YES |
|
28 |
Deebo Samuel |
WAS |
NYG |
12.5 |
2 |
28.5 |
22.00 |
46.50 |
2.5 |
L |
4.5 |
146 |
NO |
|
29 |
Chris Godwin |
TB |
ATL |
11.7 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
W |
8.6 |
184 |
YES |
|
30 |
Christian Watson |
GB |
DEN |
11.2 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
0.9 |
110 |
YES |
|
31 |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
JAC |
NYJ |
11.2 |
3 |
26.1 |
27.75 |
41.50 |
-14.0 |
W |
-1.2 |
92 |
NO |
|
32 |
Michael Pittman Jr. |
IND |
SEA |
10.9 |
26 |
18.8 |
14.50 |
42.50 |
13.5 |
L |
0.5 |
104 |
NO |
|
33 |
Khalil Shakir |
BUF |
NE |
10.8 |
30 |
17.2 |
25.50 |
49.50 |
-1.5 |
W |
-1.6 |
87 |
NO |
|
34 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
CLE |
10.6 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
W |
7.3 |
808 |
YES |
|
35 |
Jordan Addison |
MIN |
DAL |
10.6 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
L |
6.6 |
174 |
NO |
|
36 |
Mike Evans |
TB |
ATL |
10.3 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
W |
7.7 |
180 |
YES |
|
37 |
Adonai Mitchell |
NYJ |
JAC |
10.0 |
28 |
17.9 |
13.75 |
41.50 |
14.0 |
L |
-1.2 |
74 |
YES |
|
38 |
Jerry Jeudy |
CLE |
CHI |
10.0 |
17 |
21.6 |
15.50 |
38.50 |
7.5 |
L |
-5.4 |
56 |
YES |
|
39 |
Jayden Reed |
GB |
DEN |
9.9 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
W |
-3.4 |
74 |
NO |
|
40 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
ARI |
9.6 |
4 |
25.8 |
26.25 |
42.50 |
-10.0 |
W |
8.4 |
454 |
YES |
Now, the common matchups for RBs:
RUNNING BACKS – FAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
24 |
D’Andre Swift |
CHI |
CLE |
12.1 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
H |
0.2 |
102 |
YES |
W |
4.6 |
142 |
YES |
|
28 |
Omarion Hampton |
LAC |
KC |
11.1 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
R |
-0.3 |
98 |
YES |
L |
-8.1 |
60 |
YES |
|
37 |
Kenneth Gainwell |
PIT |
MIA |
9.4 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
H |
1.6 |
126 |
YES |
W |
3.0 |
162 |
YES |
|
38 |
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
IND |
9.3 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
H |
1.1 |
111 |
YES |
W |
3.2 |
138 |
YES |
RUNNING BACKS – UNFAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
21 |
Jaylen Warren |
PIT |
MIA |
13.2 |
18 |
21.3 |
22.75 |
42.50 |
-3.0 |
H |
-0.9 |
92 |
NO |
W |
-2.3 |
80 |
NO |
|
22 |
Kenneth Walker III |
SEA |
IND |
12.8 |
19 |
20.8 |
28.00 |
42.50 |
-13.5 |
H |
-1.9 |
87 |
NO |
W |
-3.6 |
77 |
NO |
|
25 |
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
DAL |
12.1 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
R |
1.1 |
110 |
NO |
L |
3.4 |
133 |
NO |
|
26 |
Devin Neal |
NO |
CAR |
11.6 |
8 |
24.6 |
19.00 |
40.50 |
2.5 |
H |
-1.4 |
80 |
NO |
L |
6.0 |
228 |
NO |
|
27 |
Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
NYG |
WAS |
11.1 |
7 |
24.7 |
24.50 |
46.50 |
-2.5 |
H |
-1.8 |
83 |
NO |
W |
-2.7 |
73 |
NO |
A good population. I’m interested to see how the unfavorables play out considering they’re all in the top seven of this ranking segment. Also, I’m eyeballing Zach Charbonnet, for two reasons: this is not the typical Colts team for the season, and Charbs is a typical start/sit subject in questions.
And for WRs:
WIDE RECEIVERS – FAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
23 |
Jauan Jennings |
SF |
TEN |
12.8 |
12 |
23.8 |
28.50 |
44.50 |
-12.5 |
H |
0.5 |
104 |
YES |
W |
1.0 |
108 |
YES |
|
30 |
Christian Watson |
GB |
DEN |
11.2 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
-6.8 |
49 |
YES |
W |
0.9 |
110 |
YES |
|
34 |
Luther Burden III |
CHI |
CLE |
10.6 |
22 |
20.0 |
23.00 |
38.50 |
-7.5 |
H |
2.8 |
153 |
YES |
W |
7.3 |
808 |
YES |
|
36 |
Mike Evans |
TB |
ATL |
10.3 |
14 |
23.3 |
24.50 |
43.50 |
-5.5 |
H |
2.8 |
120 |
YES |
W |
7.7 |
180 |
YES |
|
38 |
Jerry Jeudy |
CLE |
CHI |
10.0 |
17 |
21.6 |
15.50 |
38.50 |
7.5 |
R |
-1.7 |
86 |
YES |
L |
-5.4 |
56 |
YES |
|
40 |
Jayden Higgins |
HOU |
ARI |
9.6 |
4 |
25.8 |
26.25 |
42.50 |
-10.0 |
H |
3.6 |
161 |
YES |
W |
8.4 |
454 |
YES |
WIDE RECEIVERS – UNFAVORABLE |
|||||||||||||||||
|
RK |
PLAYER NAME |
TEAM |
OPP |
PROJ. FPTS |
PPR DEF RANK |
PPG ALLOW |
IMP PTS |
O/U |
SPREAD |
H/R |
H/R +/- |
H/R Index |
FAVORABLE? |
W/L |
W/L +/- |
W/L Index |
FAVORABLE? |
|
22 |
Stefon Diggs |
NE |
BUF |
12.8 |
6 |
25.0 |
24.00 |
49.50 |
1.5 |
H |
-1.8 |
87 |
NO |
L |
2.8 |
126 |
NO |
|
26 |
Ladd McConkey |
LAC |
KC |
12.7 |
25 |
19.0 |
17.75 |
41.50 |
6.0 |
R |
1.6 |
112 |
NO |
L |
4.0 |
135 |
NO |
|
35 |
Jordan Addison |
MIN |
DAL |
10.6 |
5 |
25.7 |
21.50 |
48.50 |
5.5 |
R |
3.7 |
134 |
NO |
L |
6.6 |
174 |
NO |
|
39 |
Jayden Reed |
GB |
DEN |
9.9 |
31 |
17.0 |
22.50 |
42.50 |
-2.5 |
R |
0.3 |
103 |
NO |
W |
-3.4 |
74 |
NO |
10 players is a good population. I like that four of the favorables are 34 or below, because I’m looking for lower-ranked players I can boost. In the unfavorables, IMO, saying not to start someone ranked below 30 is like shooting fish in a barrel. McConkey as a fade is interesting.
Briefly, Emeka Egbuka (WR24), Chris Godwin (WR29), and Mike Evans (WR36) have already played: Egbuka (10.4 PPR points) was lower than projected, hitting on H/R (unfavorable) and missing on W/L (favorable). Godwin (14.0 PPR points) was above the projection, missing on H/R (unfavorable) and hitting on W/L (favorable). Evans (19.2 PPR points) was above the projection and was favorable in both scenarios for two hits.
I am not going to say another word about the matchups, but I will invite you to ask me questions in the comments. Anything is open. Stick with me, I’m trying to take this somewhere. It will take time as I look for repeatable phenomena in front of us. And I’m getting presentation ideas going forward.
I’ve decided to do a deep dive into this in the offseason. I include data points here that I have yet to analyze for how they may affect results. In fact, the Win/Loss data includes scenarios for “blowouts,” games decided by 8 points or more. Working on fewer weekly columns should afford me more time for a deeper dive. I will post those findings.
While you’re here, check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball. Follow me on Twitter/X and BlueSky @crewser128.
Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Join us for our weekly Sunday start/sit shows, where we take questions during the Fantasy Football season for two hours starting at 11:00 a.m. EST. The “we” is (name/Twitter handle) Sky Guasco/@SkyGuasco, Derek Favret/@Derek_Favret, Matt Stiles/@stiles08, Jeff Kezar/Jefferson__21, and me.
Don’t forget to drop a comment or question down below.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Name | Team | Pos | Home Games | Road Games | Home PPR | Road PPR | Home/Road +/- | Home/Road PPR Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 16 | 15 | 26.3 | 18.8 | 7.5 | 140 | |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 13 | 16 | 24.5 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 128 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 6 | 11 | 24.4 | 20.7 | 3.7 | 118 | |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 14 | 13 | 24.1 | 16.5 | 7.6 | 146 | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 16 | 14 | 23.8 | 20.0 | 3.8 | 119 | |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 15 | 15 | 23.2 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 158 | |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 12 | 12 | 22.5 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 131 | |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 14 | 15 | 22.1 | 18.2 | 3.9 | 121 | |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 3 | 5 | 22.0 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 168 | |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 9 | 12 | 21.6 | 19.7 | 1.9 | 110 | |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 14 | 14 | 20.8 | 23.7 | -2.8 | 88 | |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 15 | 15 | 20.7 | 19.4 | 1.3 | 107 | |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 12 | 13 | 20.7 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 114 | |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 9 | 12 | 20.4 | 15.5 | 4.9 | 131 | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 16 | 14 | 20.1 | 17.8 | 2.3 | 113 | |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 14 | 17 | 20.0 | 16.1 | 4.0 | 125 | |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 16 | 15 | 19.9 | 17.9 | 2.1 | 112 | |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 16 | 14 | 19.8 | 16.7 | 3.2 | 119 | |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 13 | 13 | 19.6 | 15.4 | 4.2 | 127 | |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 11 | 13 | 19.4 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 143 | |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 15 | 14 | 19.2 | 18.7 | 0.6 | 103 | |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 6 | 5 | 19.0 | 17.4 | 1.6 | 109 | |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 17 | 14 | 18.9 | 16.8 | 2.1 | 112 | |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 15 | 15 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 100 | |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 12 | 13 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 2.8 | 118 | |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 16 | 15 | 18.2 | 14.9 | 3.4 | 123 | |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 15 | 15 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 1.2 | 107 | |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 14 | 16 | 17.9 | 14.8 | 3.1 | 121 | |
| James Conner | ARI | RB | 9 | 10 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 146 | |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 15 | 15 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 2.5 | 116 | |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | 4 | 6 | 17.7 | 16.8 | 0.9 | 105 | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 15 | 15 | 17.6 | 18.7 | -1.1 | 94 | |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 12 | 10 | 17.2 | 16.7 | 0.5 | 103 | |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 15 | 15 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 1.8 | 112 | |
| Mike Evans | TB | WR | 9 | 10 | 17.1 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 120 | |
| Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 12 | 11 | 16.9 | 14.3 | 2.7 | 119 | |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | 7 | 6 | 16.8 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 152 | |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 15 | 16 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 1.5 | 110 | |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 16 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.3 | -1.8 | 90 | |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 13 | 13 | 16.4 | 17.2 | -0.8 | 95 | |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 11 | 9 | 16.3 | 18.2 | -2.0 | 89 | |
| Derek Carr | 0 | QB | 5 | 5 | 16.2 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 119 | |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | QB | 9 | 9 | 16.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 152 | |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 13 | 12 | 16.1 | 17.8 | -1.8 | 90 | |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 12 | 15 | 16.1 | 17.2 | -1.1 | 94 | |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 15 | 16 | 15.9 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 94 | |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAC | QB | 12 | 11 | 15.5 | 15.3 | 0.2 | 102 | |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAC | WR | 14 | 13 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 2.8 | 122 | |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 11 | 12 | 15.5 | 14.4 | 1.1 | 108 | |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 10 | 11 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 141 | |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 4 | 2 | 15.2 | 15.5 | -0.3 | 98 | |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 15 | 12 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 125 | |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | QB | 3 | 1 | 15.2 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 148 | |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 14 | 10 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 0.1 | 101 | |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 13 | 15 | 15.2 | 15.4 | -0.2 | 99 | |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 16 | 14 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 1.6 | 112 | |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 10 | 9 | 15.1 | 19.8 | -4.7 | 76 | |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 15 | 14 | 14.9 | 18.3 | -3.4 | 81 | |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 13 | 13 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 124 | |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 13 | 13 | 14.8 | 15.7 | -0.9 | 94 | |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 15 | 14 | 14.7 | 16.0 | -1.3 | 92 | |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 12 | 12 | 14.7 | 15.2 | -0.6 | 96 | |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 11 | 15 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 134 | |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15 | 14 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 101 | |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 14 | 15 | 14.5 | 15.5 | -1.0 | 94 | |
| Mac Jones | SF | QB | 7 | 13 | 14.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 153 | |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | 6 | 6 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 128 | |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 13 | 15 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 111 | |
| Rico Dowdle | CAR | RB | 15 | 14 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 2.0 | 117 | |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 12 | 14 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 1.0 | 108 | |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 14 | 10 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 1.7 | 114 | |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 7 | 6 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 134 | |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | 7 | 7 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 149 | |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 15 | 13 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 114 | |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | QB | 6 | 7 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 139 | |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 14 | 13 | 13.7 | 17.1 | -3.5 | 80 | |
| Geno Smith | LV | QB | 16 | 14 | 13.6 | 14.3 | -0.7 | 95 | |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 14 | 11 | 13.4 | 16.3 | -2.9 | 82 | |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 7 | 6 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 146 | |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 14 | 15 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 0.2 | 102 | |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAC | WR | 13 | 14 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 0.4 | 103 | |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | 2 | 6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 172 | |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 16 | 13 | 13.3 | 15.2 | -1.9 | 87 | |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 7 | 5 | 13.3 | 16.2 | -3.0 | 82 | |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 14 | 14 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 131 | |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | 11 | 13 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 0.4 | 103 | |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 14 | 17 | 13.1 | 13.7 | -0.6 | 95 | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 6 | 7 | 13.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 | 94 | |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 17 | 11 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 124 | |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 15 | 12 | 13.0 | 14.5 | -1.5 | 89 | |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 14 | 17 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 1.7 | 115 | |
| Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 7 | 8 | 13.0 | 20.8 | -7.7 | 63 | |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 13 | 14 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 110 | |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 13 | 11 | 12.8 | 16.6 | -3.8 | 77 | |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 11 | 15 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 0.5 | 104 | |
| Zack Moss | 0 | RB | 4 | 4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 164 | |
| DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 14 | 16 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 113 | |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | 6 | 7 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 180 | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 13 | 14 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 112 | |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | 13 | 11 | 12.4 | 14.4 | -1.9 | 87 | |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 6 | 7 | 12.4 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 89 | |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 16 | 14 | 12.4 | 12.5 | -0.1 | 99 | |
| Kenny Pickett | LV | QB | 2 | 6 | 12.3 | 1.2 | 11.0 | 993 | |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 11 | 10 | 12.2 | 14.0 | -1.8 | 87 | |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | JAC | RB | 13 | 15 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 1.3 | 112 | |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | WR | 8 | 6 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 161 | |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 15 | 16 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 153 | |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | QB | 9 | 11 | 11.9 | 13.1 | -1.2 | 91 | |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | 6 | 7 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 0.3 | 103 | |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | QB | 3 | 4 | 11.7 | 12.2 | -0.5 | 96 | |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | 9 | 12 | 11.7 | 13.0 | -1.3 | 90 | |
| Davis Mills | HOU | QB | 4 | 5 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 216 | |
| Cam Ward | TEN | QB | 7 | 6 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 153 | |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 15 | 14 | 11.6 | 13.3 | -1.7 | 87 | |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | QB | 7 | 6 | 11.5 | 14.1 | -2.5 | 82 | |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 14 | 14 | 11.5 | 13.9 | -2.4 | 83 | |
| Aidan O’Connell | LV | QB | 4 | 5 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 120 | |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 16 | 14 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 114 | |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | QB | 9 | 6 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 111 | |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 14 | 15 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 145 | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | 7 | 6 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 105 | |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | 12 | 13 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 152 | |
| Darren Waller | MIA | TE | 3 | 3 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 156 | |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 12 | 13 | 11.2 | 11.3 | -0.2 | 98 | |
| Najee Harris | LAC | RB | 10 | 11 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 107 | |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 16 | 13 | 11.1 | 11.6 | -0.5 | 96 | |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | QB | 4 | 3 | 11.0 | 13.2 | -2.2 | 83 | |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 15 | 14 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 139 | |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 12 | 9 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 0.3 | 103 | |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 13 | 10 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 143 | |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 13 | 13 | 10.8 | 11.3 | -0.5 | 95 | |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 14 | 15 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 111 | |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | WR | 14 | 15 | 10.8 | 13.1 | -2.4 | 82 | |
| Amari Cooper | 0 | WR | 8 | 7 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 161 | |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | QB | 9 | 9 | 10.6 | 16.3 | -5.6 | 65 | |
| Bam Knight | ARI | RB | 5 | 4 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 0.5 | 105 | |
| Jamison Crowder | 0 | WR | 2 | 5 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 9.1 | 729 | |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 13 | 14 | 10.5 | 10.9 | -0.4 | 97 | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 11 | 14 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 0.2 | 102 | |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 14 | 16 | 10.4 | 13.2 | -2.8 | 78 | |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 14 | 12 | 10.4 | 11.3 | -0.9 | 92 | |
| Travis Hunter | JAC | WR | 5 | 2 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 166 | |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 13 | 13 | 10.3 | 11.7 | -1.4 | 88 | |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 15 | 15 | 10.3 | 12.0 | -1.7 | 86 | |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | RB | 15 | 14 | 10.2 | 13.0 | -2.8 | 79 | |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 14 | 14 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 100 | |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 3 | 4 | 10.1 | 11.1 | -1.0 | 91 | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC | TE | 7 | 4 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 120 | |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 13 | 15 | 9.9 | 10.8 | -0.9 | 92 | |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 13 | 14 | 9.9 | 10.3 | -0.4 | 96 | |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 10 | 10 | 9.8 | 11.9 | -2.1 | 82 | |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 12 | 15 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 107 | |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 13 | 13 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 121 | |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 9 | 10 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 183 | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 4 | 3 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 124 | |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 12 | 13 | 9.7 | 12.0 | -2.3 | 81 | |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 11 | 15 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 177 | |
| Jayden Higgins | HOU | WR | 6 | 7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 161 | |
| Will Levis | TEN | QB | 7 | 5 | 9.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 82 | |
| Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | 7 | 8 | 9.5 | 10.9 | -1.5 | 86 | |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 11 | 12 | 9.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 | 90 | |
| Cedric Tillman | CLE | WR | 11 | 9 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 341 | |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 17 | 14 | 9.4 | 10.5 | -1.1 | 90 | |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 11 | 7 | 9.4 | 14.5 | -5.0 | 65 | |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 14 | 14 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 129 | |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 9 | 9 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 114 | |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 10 | 10 | 9.2 | 10.9 | -1.7 | 85 | |
| Taysom Hill | NO | TE | 8 | 9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 169 | |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 15 | 12 | 9.1 | 14.7 | -5.6 | 62 | |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 12 | 11 | 9.1 | 13.4 | -4.4 | 67 | |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 14 | 13 | 9.0 | 10.5 | -1.4 | 86 | |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 14 | 15 | 8.9 | 11.2 | -2.3 | 79 | |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 15 | 13 | 8.9 | 13.7 | -4.8 | 65 | |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | QB | 7 | 7 | 8.9 | 14.8 | -5.9 | 60 | |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | RB | 13 | 15 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 83 | |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | WR | 11 | 13 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 76 | |
| Michael Carter | ARI | RB | 7 | 5 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 110 | |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | WR | 14 | 16 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 191 | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 16 | 13 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 182 | |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | PIT | WR | 8 | 12 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 453 | |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 14 | 16 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 145 | |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 11 | 6 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 159 | |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 13 | 12 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 0.4 | 105 | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | WR | 13 | 16 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 148 | |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 15 | 15 | 8.4 | 9.4 | -1.0 | 90 | |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | 5 | 8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | -0.8 | 92 | |
| Evan Engram | DEN | TE | 10 | 11 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 105 | |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 15 | 15 | 8.3 | 9.1 | -0.8 | 91 | |
| Marquise Brown | KC | WR | 8 | 7 | 8.3 | 10.4 | -2.1 | 80 | |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | WR | 6 | 7 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 138 | |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 15 | 15 | 8.2 | 10.8 | -2.7 | 75 | |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | RB | 11 | 10 | 8.2 | 9.7 | -1.4 | 85 | |
| Noah Brown | WAS | WR | 7 | 7 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 149 | |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | 5 | 7 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 153 | |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | 15 | 15 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 110 | |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | SF | RB | 13 | 15 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 108 | |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 15 | 15 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 89 | |
| Isaac Guerendo | SF | RB | 9 | 6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 234 | |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 11 | 13 | 8.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | 91 | |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | 9 | 9 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 106 | |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 11 | 12 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 159 | |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 15 | 16 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 211 | |
| Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 6 | 8 | 8.0 | 11.5 | -3.6 | 69 | |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | QB | 4 | 6 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 129 | |
| Nick Chubb | HOU | RB | 11 | 10 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 127 | |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | WR | 6 | 6 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 126 | |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | WR | 12 | 11 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 141 | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 17 | 14 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 126 | |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | QB | 4 | 4 | 7.5 | 11.9 | -4.4 | 63 | |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 15 | 14 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 144 | |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 10 | 11 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 114 | |
| Brenton Strange | JAC | TE | 12 | 13 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 127 | |
| Tyler Lockett | LV | WR | 16 | 14 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 185 | |
| Bub Means | NO | WR | 3 | 4 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 643 | |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | 9.3 | -1.9 | 79 | |
| Adam Thielen | PIT | WR | 10 | 12 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 0.5 | 108 | |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | WR | 15 | 14 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 182 | |
| Ameer Abdullah | IND | RB | 11 | 12 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 131 | |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 16 | 13 | 7.2 | 9.3 | -2.1 | 78 | |
| Gardner Minshew II | KC | QB | 6 | 6 | 7.2 | 8.5 | -1.3 | 85 | |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | WR | 13 | 14 | 7.1 | 7.7 | -0.5 | 93 | |
| Tim Patrick | JAC | WR | 15 | 13 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 291 | |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 15 | 16 | 7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 78 | |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 15 | 16 | 7.0 | 9.4 | -2.4 | 75 | |
| Drew Lock | SEA | QB | 7 | 5 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 121 | |
| Noah Fant | CIN | TE | 13 | 13 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 0.1 | 102 | |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 15 | 13 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 189 | |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 13 | 11 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 215 | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 9 | 12 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 158 | |
| Christian Kirk | HOU | WR | 8 | 9 | 6.8 | 7.1 | -0.3 | 96 | |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 7 | 6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | -0.1 | 99 | |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 15 | 15 | 6.8 | 7.3 | -0.5 | 93 | |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 12 | 14 | 6.7 | 7.2 | -0.5 | 93 | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 6 | 7 | 6.7 | 7.2 | -0.5 | 93 | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS | RB | 9 | 9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 177 | |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 14 | 14 | 6.5 | 7.1 | -0.6 | 91 | |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 13 | 9 | 6.5 | 13.3 | -6.8 | 49 | |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 14 | 15 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 109 | |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 16 | 15 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 105 | |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | TE | 7 | 6 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 139 | |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 14 | 13 | 6.4 | 7.2 | -0.8 | 89 | |
| Jordan Akins | JAC | TE | 8 | 9 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 142 | |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | QB | 7 | 6 | 6.3 | 10.8 | -4.5 | 58 | |
| Tory Horton | SEA | WR | 4 | 4 | 6.3 | 8.5 | -2.2 | 74 | |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | RB | 7 | 5 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 135 | |
| Jake Browning | CIN | QB | 6 | 2 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 110 | |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | QB | 4 | 5 | 6.2 | 9.0 | -2.8 | 69 | |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | WR | 7 | 6 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 0.1 | 101 | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | WR | 14 | 17 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 96 | |
| Parker Washington | JAC | WR | 14 | 15 | 6.2 | 7.0 | -0.8 | 88 | |
| Cam Akers | SEA | RB | 9 | 9 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 113 | |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 11 | 14 | 6.1 | 8.5 | -2.4 | 72 | |
| Antonio Gibson | NE | RB | 11 | 11 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 127 | |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 14 | 12 | 6.1 | 10.0 | -3.9 | 61 | |
| Tyler Shough | NO | QB | 2 | 5 | 6.1 | 13.0 | -6.9 | 47 | |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | 2 | 4 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 159 | |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 9 | 12 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 106 | |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 13 | 14 | 6.0 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 85 | |
| Tez Johnson | TB | WR | 6 | 6 | 5.9 | 8.2 | -2.3 | 72 | |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | RB | 13 | 15 | 5.9 | 6.2 | -0.3 | 96 | |
| David Moore | CAR | WR | 10 | 11 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 213 | |
| DJ Turner | LV | WR | 5 | 7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 228 | |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | TE | 15 | 15 | 5.7 | 7.4 | -1.7 | 77 | |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 16 | 15 | 5.6 | 5.7 | -0.1 | 98 | |
| Trey Benson | ARI | RB | 10 | 7 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 145 | |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | 12 | 12 | 5.6 | 7.8 | -2.2 | 72 | |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 9 | 6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 119 | |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 16 | 15 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 111 | |
| Curtis Samuel | BUF | WR | 11 | 10 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 134 | |
| Joshua Palmer | BUF | WR | 13 | 10 | 5.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | 69 | |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | 6 | 7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 142 | |
| Devin Neal | NO | RB | 3 | 5 | 5.4 | 6.7 | -1.4 | 80 | |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | TE | 8 | 5 | 5.4 | 8.8 | -3.4 | 62 | |
| Josh Reynolds | NYJ | WR | 8 | 6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 185 | |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 13 | 12 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 138 | |
| Cooper Rush | BAL | QB | 10 | 6 | 5.3 | 9.0 | -3.7 | 59 | |
| Calvin Austin III | PIT | WR | 14 | 15 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -2.3 | 69 | |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 14 | 14 | 5.2 | 6.0 | -0.8 | 87 | |
| Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR | TE | 12 | 14 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 134 | |
| Dylan Sampson | CLE | RB | 7 | 6 | 5.1 | 6.7 | -1.6 | 76 | |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 10 | 14 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 252 | |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 15 | 15 | 5.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 67 | |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 13 | 14 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 139 | |
| Elijah Moore | DEN | WR | 12 | 14 | 5.0 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 78 | |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | RB | 11 | 10 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 114 | |
| Van Jefferson | TEN | WR | 15 | 16 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 139 | |
| Jaret Patterson | LAC | RB | 3 | 1 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 110 | |
| George Holani | SEA | RB | 3 | 3 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 596 | |
| Tyler Conklin | LAC | TE | 14 | 11 | 4.8 | 6.2 | -1.4 | 78 | |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | 13 | 15 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 119 | |
| Dyami Brown | JAC | WR | 15 | 13 | 4.7 | 5.1 | -0.5 | 91 | |
| Brandin Cooks | BUF | WR | 12 | 10 | 4.7 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 94 | |
| Brashard Smith | KC | RB | 7 | 6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 249 | |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | WR | 15 | 15 | 4.6 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 80 | |
| Ronnie Rivers | LAR | RB | 3 | 5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 249 | |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 15 | 15 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 122 | |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 13 | 14 | 4.5 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 76 | |
| Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 12 | 12 | 4.5 | 7.5 | -3.0 | 60 | |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | WR | 14 | 15 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 122 | |
| Miles Sanders | DAL | RB | 7 | 8 | 4.5 | 9.1 | -4.6 | 49 | |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 16 | 15 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 367 | |
| Jaydon Blue | DAL | RB | 1 | 3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 367 | |
| Josh Whyle | GB | TE | 11 | 11 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 224 | |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 10 | 10 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 115 | |
| Sterling Shepard | TB | WR | 14 | 14 | 4.4 | 7.0 | -2.6 | 63 | |
| Raheem Mostert | LV | RB | 11 | 12 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 103 | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAC | RB | 7 | 6 | 4.3 | 6.8 | -2.5 | 63 | |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 14 | 15 | 4.3 | 6.1 | -1.9 | 69 | |
| Tyler Boyd | 0 | WR | 7 | 9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | -1.3 | 76 | |
| Britain Covey | PHI | WR | 2 | 3 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 593 | |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | 7.2 | -2.9 | 59 | |
| Trey Lance | LAC | QB | 4 | 3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 889 | |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 16 | 14 | 4.1 | 4.5 | -0.4 | 91 | |
| Desmond Ridder | 0 | QB | 3 | 2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | -0.6 | 87 | |
| Gabe Davis | BUF | WR | 7 | 7 | 4.1 | 6.0 | -1.9 | 68 | |
| Terrell Jennings | NE | RB | 4 | 3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 528 | |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 16 | 13 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 71 | |
| John Metchie III | NYJ | WR | 15 | 11 | 4.1 | 4.6 | -0.5 | 90 | |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 15 | 16 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 147 | |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 16 | 15 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -0.9 | 81 | |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 7 | 6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 68 | |
| Joshua Dobbs | NE | QB | 2 | 2 | 4.0 | 11.5 | -7.6 | 34 | |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 4 | 7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 101 | |
| Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | 6 | 3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 314 | |
| Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | 11 | 13 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 269 | |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RB | 12 | 11 | 3.8 | 9.2 | -5.4 | 41 | |
| Ainias Smith | CAR | WR | 4 | 3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 436 | |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 13 | 14 | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.5 | 88 | |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | 12 | 13 | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.6 | 87 | |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 15 | 14 | 3.8 | 6.3 | -2.5 | 60 | |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 11 | 12 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 115 | |
| Mitchell Tinsley | CIN | WR | 6 | 7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 438 | |
| Nick Vannett | LAR | TE | 8 | 13 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 252 | |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 9 | 12 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 257 | |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 10 | 11 | 3.7 | 5.8 | -2.1 | 63 | |
| Malik Willis | GB | QB | 5 | 4 | 3.7 | 9.9 | -6.2 | 37 | |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 15 | 15 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 112 | |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 14 | 14 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 141 | |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR | 6 | 7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 83 | |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 14 | 13 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 275 | |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 7 | 6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 117 | |
| Mike Williams | 0 | WR | 8 | 11 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 121 | |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 10 | 9 | 3.5 | 5.3 | -1.9 | 65 | |
| Zavier Scott | MIN | RB | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | 5.9 | -2.4 | 60 | |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | 12 | 14 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 118 | |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 8 | 5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 133 | |
| Tyrell Shavers | BUF | WR | 8 | 8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 304 | |
| Malik Davis | DAL | RB | 4 | 3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 347 | |
| Tyler Johnson | NYJ | WR | 15 | 10 | 3.4 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 78 | |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | NO | WR | 6 | 6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 315 | |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | WR | 7 | 8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | -0.2 | 94 | |
| Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | 12 | 9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 180 | |
| Audric Estime | NO | RB | 6 | 9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 106 | |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 14 | 14 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 192 | |
| Jackson Hawes | BUF | TE | 7 | 6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.1 | 97 | |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 7 | 6 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 132 | |
| Tre Harris | LAC | WR | 8 | 5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | -0.3 | 92 | |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 8 | 7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 220 | |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | RB | 12 | 10 | 3.2 | 5.0 | -1.8 | 64 | |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 16 | 12 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 193 | |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 11 | 10 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 315 | |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | 8 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 172 | |
| Gunner Olszewski | NYG | WR | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 236 | |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 15 | 15 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 171 | |
| Dare Ogunbowale | HOU | RB | 15 | 15 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 188 | |
| Tyler Goodson | IND | RB | 8 | 14 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 176 | |
| Johnny Mundt | JAC | TE | 15 | 15 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 192 | |
| Dante Pettis | NO | WR | 6 | 5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 100 | |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 14 | 16 | 3.0 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 79 | |
| Deuce Vaughn | DEN | RB | 4 | 2 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 1425 | |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | RB | 7 | 7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 123 | |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR | TE | 6 | 7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 91 | |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 14 | 17 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 120 | |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 15 | 13 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 133 | |
| Justin Watson | HOU | WR | 9 | 10 | 2.9 | 4.2 | -1.3 | 69 | |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 6 | 7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 101 | |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | TE | 5 | 4 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 817 | |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | GB | RB | 6 | 6 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 98 | |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 12 | 11 | 2.9 | 6.2 | -3.3 | 47 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | RB | 8 | 7 | 2.9 | 5.0 | -2.1 | 57 | |
| D’Ernest Johnson | NE | RB | 8 | 8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 161 | |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 8 | 11 | 2.8 | 4.8 | -2.1 | 57 | |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 16 | 14 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 174 | |
| Devin Duvernay | CHI | WR | 5 | 10 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 267 | |
| Mason Tipton | NO | WR | 9 | 12 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 288 | |
| Bo Melton | GB | DB | 12 | 11 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 230 | |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | 4 | 6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 110 | |
| Zay Jones | ARI | WR | 9 | 10 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 114 | |
| Dylan Drummond | ATL | WR | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 125 | |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | CAR | WR | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 159 | |
| Chris Moore | WAS | WR | 9 | 8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 147 | |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | RB | 7 | 6 | 2.5 | 5.8 | -3.2 | 44 | |
| Casey Washington | ATL | WR | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 280 | |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 14 | 13 | 2.5 | 6.6 | -4.1 | 38 | |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | TE | 16 | 14 | 2.4 | 3.3 | -0.9 | 73 | |
| Tylan Wallace | BAL | WR | 16 | 14 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 231 | |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 7 | 6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 130 | |
| Patrick Taylor | SF | RB | 4 | 3 | 2.4 | 6.8 | -4.5 | 35 | |
| Rakim Jarrett | 0 | WR | 6 | 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 154 | |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 9 | 12 | 2.3 | 3.0 | -0.7 | 77 | |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | WR | 4 | 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 172 | |
| Malik Heath | ATL | WR | 12 | 12 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 150 | |
| Jack Bech | LV | WR | 6 | 6 | 2.3 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 75 | |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 8 | 9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 99 | |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | TE | 4 | 5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 165 | |
| Trey Sermon | 0 | RB | 9 | 9 | 2.2 | 3.8 | -1.6 | 58 | |
| Hassan Haskins | LAC | RB | 11 | 10 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 120 | |
| Robert Woods | 0 | WR | 9 | 7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 70 | |
| KhaDarel Hodge | ATL | WR | 12 | 13 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 464 | |
| Jalen Brooks | ARI | WR | 7 | 9 | 2.2 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 78 | |
| Trey Palmer | NO | WR | 10 | 6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 100 | |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE | WR | 7 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.4 | -2.3 | 47 | |
| Kameron Johnson | TB | WR | 9 | 8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9999 | |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 8 | 11 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 174 | |
| Jared Wayne | HOU | WR | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9999 | |
| Michael Woods II | 0 | WR | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 63 | |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 0 | QB | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 73 | |
| Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | 7 | 9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 73 | |
| Kenny McIntosh | SEA | RB | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 60 | |
| Luke Farrell | SF | TE | 13 | 17 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 147 | |
| Hunter Renfrow | CAR | WR | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 10.0 | -8.0 | 20 | |
| LeQuint Allen | JAC | RB | 7 | 6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 174 | |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 13 | 13 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 163 | |
| Kyle Williams | NE | WR | 7 | 6 | 2.0 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 71 | |
| Tom Kennedy | DET | WR | 4 | 2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 9999 | |
| Cody White | SEA | WR | 5 | 6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 77 | |
| Hunter Long | JAC | TE | 16 | 11 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 114 | |
| Ian Thomas | LV | TE | 10 | 8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 164 | |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | RB | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 740 | |
| Bryce Oliver | TEN | WR | 6 | 5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 153 | |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | TE | 6 | 7 | 1.9 | 3.6 | -1.7 | 52 | |
| Jake Tonges | SF | TE | 10 | 14 | 1.9 | 3.8 | -1.9 | 49 | |
| James Proche | TEN | WR | 5 | 7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 261 | |
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | BUF | WR | 6 | 6 | 1.9 | 3.3 | -1.4 | 57 | |
| Ashton Dulin | IND | WR | 14 | 11 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 150 | |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA | RB | 5 | 5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 607 | |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | TE | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 106 | |
| Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | 9 | 11 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 103 | |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 13 | 16 | 1.8 | 2.6 | -0.8 | 69 | |
| Braxton Berrios | HOU | WR | 5 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 782 | |
| Devin Culp | TB | TE | 8 | 6 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 9999 | |
| Michael Burton | DEN | RB | 8 | 10 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 111 | |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 12 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 89 | |
| Payne Durham | TB | TE | 15 | 15 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 218 | |
| D’Onta Foreman | 0 | RB | 5 | 6 | 1.7 | 4.0 | -2.3 | 42 | |
| Trevor Etienne | CAR | RB | 5 | 6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 202 | |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 14 | 16 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 946 | |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | RB | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 45 | |
| DJ Giddens | IND | RB | 4 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1575 | |
| Mitch Trubisky | BUF | QB | 4 | 9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 129 | |
| Jake Haener | NO | QB | 4 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.3 | 82 | |
| Stone Smartt | NYJ | TE | 10 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 59 | |
| Jordan Mims | TEN | RB | 5 | 4 | 1.5 | 4.6 | -3.1 | 33 | |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 15 | 12 | 1.5 | 3.3 | -1.8 | 46 | |
| Drew Sample | CIN | TE | 14 | 15 | 1.5 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 71 | |
| Robbie Chosen | WAS | WR | 3 | 2 | 1.4 | 3.8 | -2.4 | 37 | |
| Malachi Corley | CLE | WR | 8 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 113 | |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | WR | 9 | 9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 513 | |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL | WR | 10 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 63 | |
| Xavier Gipson | NYG | WR | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 207 | |
| Kaleb Johnson | PIT | RB | 6 | 3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 790 | |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | WR | 9 | 9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 72 | |
| Gage Larvadain | CLE | WR | 5 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 108 | |
| Eric Gray | NYG | RB | 7 | 7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 56 | |
| Ben Sinnott | WAS | TE | 15 | 15 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 163 | |
| Savion Williams | GB | WR | 6 | 5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 34 | |
| Dan Chisena | CAR | WR | 4 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 204 | |
| Austin Trammell | JAC | WR | 2 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | -0.7 | 62 | |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | WR | 7 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 71 | |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 12 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 78 | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0 | WR | 4 | 5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | -0.9 | 54 | |
| Scotty Miller | PIT | WR | 11 | 10 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 569 | |
| Alec Ingold | MIA | RB | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 69 | |
| DeeJay Dallas | CAR | RB | 6 | 2 | 1.1 | 4.3 | -3.2 | 25 | |
| Andrew Beck | NYJ | RB | 10 | 6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 175 | |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | TE | 15 | 15 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 107 | |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR | WR | 5 | 7 | 1.1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 38 | |
| Xavier Weaver | ARI | WR | 5 | 3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 9999 | |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 14 | 15 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 122 | |
| Ryan Miller | NYG | WR | 11 | 13 | 1.1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 37 | |
| Dont’e Thornton Jr. | LV | WR | 5 | 6 | 1.1 | 2.5 | -1.4 | 43 | |
| Jacob Cowing | SF | WR | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 88 | |
| Harrison Bryant | HOU | TE | 11 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 101 | |
| Trenton Irwin | NYJ | WR | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 267 | |
| Drew Ogletree | IND | TE | 15 | 15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 67 | |
| Craig Reynolds | NE | RB | 7 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 52 | |
| Quintin Morris | JAC | TE | 12 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 145 | |
| Alex Bachman | LV | WR | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 375 | |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 88 | |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 14 | 15 | 0.9 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 40 | |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 13 | 12 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 231 | |
| Tanner Conner | MIA | TE | 6 | 8 | 0.9 | 2.2 | -1.3 | 41 | |
| Pharaoh Brown | ARI | TE | 11 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 323 | |
| Skyy Moore | SF | WR | 8 | 9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 257 | |
| J.J. Taylor | 0 | RB | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 39 | |
| David Sills V | ATL | WR | 6 | 7 | 0.9 | 3.0 | -2.1 | 31 | |
| Dareke Young | SEA | WR | 8 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 9999 | |
| Kylen Granson | PHI | TE | 14 | 15 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 58 | |
| Deven Thompkins | ATL | WR | 7 | 2 | 0.9 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 28 | |
| Sione Vaki | DET | RB | 4 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 110 | |
| Julius Chestnut | TEN | RB | 8 | 10 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 74 | |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | 6 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 49 | |
| Dameon Pierce | KC | RB | 4 | 9 | 0.8 | 4.9 | -4.1 | 16 | |
| Mike Boone | 0 | RB | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | -0.7 | 51 | |
| Tucker Fisk | LAC | TE | 11 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 83 | |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 13 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 55 | |
| Arian Smith | NYJ | WR | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -0.8 | 50 | |
| Chris Manhertz | NYG | TE | 14 | 16 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 488 | |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | TE | 15 | 15 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 29 | |
| Jermaine Burton | 0 | WR | 7 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 53 | |
| Blake Whiteheart | CLE | TE | 10 | 13 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 74 | |
| Khalil Herbert | NYJ | RB | 6 | 7 | 0.7 | 3.9 | -3.2 | 17 | |
| JaMycal Hasty | MIA | RB | 5 | 7 | 0.7 | 3.6 | -2.9 | 19 | |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | TE | 9 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 122 | |
| AJ Dillon | PHI | RB | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 39 | |
| Ben Sims | MIN | TE | 12 | 10 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 618 | |
| Will Mallory | IND | TE | 5 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 124 | |
| Trent Sherfield | ARI | WR | 14 | 14 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -0.9 | 43 | |
| Patrick Ricard | BAL | RB | 13 | 12 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 497 | |
| John FitzPatrick | GB | TE | 11 | 12 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 63 | |
| DeAndre Carter | CLE | WR | 5 | 4 | 0.6 | 3.3 | -2.7 | 19 | |
| K.J. Osborn | ATL | WR | 3 | 5 | 0.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | 17 | |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 0 | WR | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 56 | |
| Jacob Saylors | DET | RB | 2 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 9999 | |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | PHI | WR | 3 | 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 42 | |
| Jared Wiley | KC | TE | 3 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 202 | |
| Durham Smythe | CHI | TE | 13 | 17 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 94 | |
| Mason Kinsey | TEN | WR | 7 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 201 | |
| Tip Reiman | ARI | TE | 11 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 70 | |
| Tim Jones | JAC | WR | 8 | 12 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 170 | |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | TE | 5 | 8 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 35 | |
| Johnny Wilson | PHI | WR | 10 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 40 | |
| Nikko Remigio | KC | WR | 6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 235 | |
| Ronnie Bell | NO | WR | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 45 | |
| Travis Homer | CHI | RB | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 58 | |
| James Mitchell | CAR | TE | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.7 | -3.2 | 14 | |
| Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | RB | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 28 | |
| River Cracraft | 0 | WR | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -1.9 | 22 | |
| Shane Zylstra | DET | TE | 6 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 9999 | |
| Dee Eskridge | MIA | WR | 7 | 9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 36 | |
| Anthony Firkser | DET | TE | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 9999 | |
| Javon Baker | SF | WR | 5 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 9999 | |
| John Samuel Shenker | 0 | TE | 4 | 3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 9999 | |
| Scott Matlock | LAC | RB | 15 | 14 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 55 | |
| Dylan Laube | LV | RB | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 53 | |
| Cam Grandy | CIN | TE | 4 | 6 | 0.4 | 1.3 | -0.9 | 33 | |
| Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | 13 | 11 | 0.4 | 2.0 | -1.6 | 20 | |
| Carson Steele | KC | RB | 8 | 8 | 0.4 | 2.6 | -2.2 | 15 | |
| Adam Prentice | DEN | RB | 15 | 15 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 72 | |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT | WR | 10 | 13 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -1.6 | 19 | |
| Jaheim Bell | 0 | TE | 7 | 6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 226 | |
| Colson Yankoff | WAS | TE | 7 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 147 | |
| Jha’Quan Jackson | 0 | WR | 4 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 9999 | |
| Allen Robinson II | 0 | WR | 5 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 55 | |
| Tahj Brooks | CIN | RB | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 27 | |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | NO | TE | 5 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 33 | |
| Raheem Blackshear | 0 | RB | 5 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | -1.4 | 16 | |
| Josiah Deguara | ARI | TE | 9 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 97 | |
| Chris Conley | 0 | WR | 8 | 7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 18 | |
| Jarrett Stidham | DEN | QB | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | -100 | |
| Ross Dwelley | 0 | TE | 13 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 152 | |
| Taylor Heinicke | 0 | QB | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 20 | |
| Nick Mullens | JAC | QB | 5 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 107 | |
| Jack Stoll | NO | TE | 9 | 11 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 14 | |
| Kyle Allen | DET | QB | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -200 | |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | 15 | 14 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 16 | |
| Marcedes Lewis | DEN | TE | 11 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 9999 | |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | QB | 4 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 40 | |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | TE | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0 | |
| Dallin Holker | 0 | TE | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | |
| David Martin-Robinson | TEN | TE | 9 | 7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | |
| Brenden Bates | CLE | TE | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0 | |
| Ben Yurosek | MIN | TE | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | |
| Anthony Gould | IND | WR | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 0 | |
| Tay Martin | 0 | WR | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 0 | |
| Carter Runyon | LV | TE | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | |
| Simi Fehoko | ARI | WR | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | |
| Feleipe Franks | ATL | TE | 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 8 | |
| Beaux Collins | NYG | WR | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 0 | |
| Trayveon Williams | CLE | RB | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | |
| Tahj Washington | MIA | WR | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9999 | |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | WR | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | |
| Parris Campbell | DAL | WR | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | 0 | |
| Darius Cooper | PHI | WR | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 0 | |
| Reggie Gilliam | BUF | RB | 14 | 14 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 19 | |
| British Brooks | HOU | RB | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | |
| Tyler Scott | LAR | WR | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | |
| Robert Tonyan | KC | TE | 10 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0 | |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | LAC | WR | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | 2 | 5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -58 | |
| Teddy Bridgewater | TB | QB | 0 | 4 | 0.7 | 9999.0 | 9999 |
Hey man I got one more for you. Not sure if I’m just overthinking this or not. Would you start Strange or cut and add Likley it’s PPR. Thank you sir.
Hi Beans:
I love the matchup, and I like Likely. What I’m concerned about is that it is forecast to be 9° F at game time at Paycor Stadium.
The matchup for Strange isn’t awful but isn’t great. But it’s forecast to be in the 70s at EverBank Stadium.
It’s a tricky question for me, too. If I thought Parker Washington would be out, it would be Strange significantly for me. The Ravens are shaky right now, even though Likely has been top-10 in PPR the last two weeks.
Likely is the ceiling play for me, Strange if I wanted a safer floor.