Round Two of the playoffs are HERE! Congratulations to all of you out there who are still alive. For most of us, we’re a few days away from the ultimate goal – playing for a Championship. Making the right call is more important than ever and the RazzballNFL crew are here to help. Head over to football.razzball.com to see all our takes for Week 16. For me, I’m here to help with the most important position on your fantasy roster – the QB position. Let’s get it done!
Here are my QB STARTS and SITS for Week 16.
Don’t forget to check out all our free tools to help with your playoff decisions. Check them out here (again, all for free at football.razzball.com. You can’t afford not to!
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- 2024 Slot vs Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules tool
- Defensive NFL Targets Allowed by Team tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
QB STARTS
- Player: Baker Mayfield
- Game: @ Dallas Cowboys
Baker is one of my top QB recommendations this week. He and Mike Evans are locked in, as illustrated by Evans’ 26- and 37-point games in two of the last three. The Dallas defense is ranked 28th in QB, and 19th in WR, scoring against. As our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows, Mayfield is actually better on the road. That’s right, our tool shows his index is 95 – meaning he’s 5% better on the road. Just last week, Baker put up 288 and 4 TDs in a road game against the Chargers…and the Cowboys defense is not the Chargers. If that wasn’t enough, just look at the lines. The Bucs are four-point favorites (AT DALLAS) in the highest over/under game of the week. Even the odds-makers are high on Baker this week.
- Player: Aaron Rodgers
- Game: vs Los Angeles Rams
I really can’t believe I’m about to right these words but here goes…Aaron Rodgers has actually been pretty good lately. Over his last four games, he’s thrown for 2+ TDs in three of four. In that fourth game, he threw for 339 yards and 1 TD. If recency-bias is your game, he’s been a top 12 QB over the last two. The Rams now come to town and although they are playing well overall, their defense is ranked only 24th vs QB, allowing 20 fantasy points per game. Can Rodgers keep this trend up? I like the odds.
- Player: Aidan O’Connell
- Game: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
After missing the last game, and three of the last five, Aidan O’Connell put in a full practice this week and projected to return to the Raiders lineup. Desmond Ridder was less than stellar in his brief spot start last week, throwing for 208 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. For their part, the lowly Jaguars continue to allow the most fantasy QB points per game in the league, including averaging over 275 yards and 2 TDs per contest. O’Connell’s return will provide a much-needed boost to owners of both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. He’ll make a great DFS play as well…if you’re into that!
QB SITS
- Player: Patrick Mahomes
- Game: vs Houston Texans
Patrick Mahomes might just actually be Superman. After suffering a high-ankle sprain last week, an injury normally sidelining players for a couple weeks at minimum, Mahomes is not listed on the injury report for the Saturday tilt against Houston. Mahomes practiced in full all week. The news that Hollywood Brown is also scheduled to make his return this week may have you salivating here. I’m here to tell you “NOT SO FAST” on that one. The Texans defense is ranked #1 in limiting QB completion percentage, #2 in passing yards per attempt, #2 in interceptions, #2 in sacks, and top five in limiting offensive yards. With a Christmas day game looming, the Chiefs should probably rest their franchise QB. That’s good advice for your fantasy team as well.
- Player: Kyler Murray
- Game: vs New England Patriots
Last week, I stated this regarding Kyler Murray, “It may not always look pretty, but Kyler Murray has generally delivered for his fantasy owners the past few weeks.” Well, I hit the mark on the point about not looking pretty, but last week’s win over the Patriots was not a statistically good one for the QB. He was relatively efficient at 23-30, but only threw for 224 yards and no TDs or INTs. Also, he only contributed 11 yards on the ground. That is not good enough for us in the playoffs. This week, the Cardinals travel to Carolina against a defense much more vulnerable to the run than the pass. The Panthers continue to be the worst defense against the run, giving up over 24 fantasy points per game. Their passing defense has been a little more respectable, including limiting Jalen Hurts to 108 passing yards in Week 14 and Baker Mayfield to 235 passing yards in Week 13.
- Player: Matthew Stafford
- Games: @ New York Jets
Just a month or so ago, many of us considered Matthew Stafford a fantasy league winner. Lately though, it’s been more of a Jekyll-and-Hyde ride. He looked great at home in Week 14 versus Buffalo (320 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) but anything but great last week at San Francisco (160 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs). What will the road tilt versus the Jets bring? The data suggests the latter. The Jets defense is just outside the top third in the league in allowing QB fantasy points and 5th best in limiting passing yards (214 yards). Our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows Stafford is neutral but looking at his results lately shows a bias against road games, including 9.8 fantasy points at San Francisco last week and 17.5 fantasy points at New Orleans in Week 13 – his bottom two performances since Veteran’s Day. It’s best to just stay away on this one.
That’s All Folks
Best of luck throughout the playoffs, but most importantly, this week! The Razzball crew and I will be here the whole way to help you win that coveted Championship. If you have any last-minute roster decisions, be sure to join the Razzball boys each week for our live Sunday show starting at 11:00 am EST. We can help you in real time there! Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
One last piece of business…a reminder that all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X: @Derek_Favret and BlueSky: @dfavret.bsky.social.
Until next time, my friends!
What’s up TBL. I’m still here this week by only 1.2 points. I need a little more help this week. Question is PPR. Please chose 1WR and 1 FLEX from….
WR’S- Nabers, JSN, Jameson Williams and Jalen McMillan
RB’S- Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, Kendre Miller?
Thanks for the help man.
Hey Beans, I’m glad to see you’re still in the race. Let’s get you more of a buffer…1.2 points isn’t going to cut it.
For the WR, the best advice I can give you is to listen to the WR Start/Sit/Streamer podcast that came out tonight. Bobby and Ben go through each game and break down the Slot v Wide matchups. They’ll give you the best advice on which gives you the best chance. Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/live/XQxflo2oGtU
Personally, I love Jalen McMillan.
On the RB side, it’s clearly Bucky Irving for me. I’m glad to see KWIII back but there’s a chance at some bad weather in the game and that makes his lingering calf injury a risk for me. Miller should get the workload but I’d like it a little more if Carr was the starting QB.
Good luck to you. I’m still alive in two leagues so we’re in this together.
Najee or garret wilson? Standard scoring
Sorry, I just received the notification. My answer was always going to be Wilson. I hope you chose the same since Najee had a dud game.
You streaming Rodgers or Purdy this week? Standard scoring. Opponent has Juaun Jennings.
Come on the live Start/Sit show. We’ll answer your question in real time.
If you can’t make it to the show, I’m leaning Rodgers slightly over Purdy.
What’s up TLB? This is it… first I just wanted to thank you for all the help this yr. Thanks for all the info, articles and time answering all the questions. Hopefully you will be back next yr as well. So this week in the Chip I’m going with:
Nix over Tua
Chig over Hockenson
And at flex I’m going Bucky over Nabers, Jamo Williams and Jalen McMillan
Team is PPR. Do you agree with all these moves?
Hey Beans, congratulations on getting to the Championship game. I was wondering how you did last week.
Sorry I didn’t get to this before the Den-Cincy game yesterday but glad to see you went with Nix.
I have the same TE dilemma with Chig and Hock. I’ve been on Chig all week but switching to Hock today – only because I faced Burrow and McBride yesterday and now need a miracle. To me, Chig is the better floor play but Hock has the potential hail mary upside I’m going to need to get back into this one. So, I can endorse either side.
Bucky over those three is the right move for me too. In fact, I have Bucky running in that league as well. So, if you and I go off here, maybe with both can take home titles.
I’m rooting for you my friend. Good luck…and let me know how it turns out. I appreciate you joining me all season. Best to you as the calendar turns over.