Week 16 Start vs. Sit: Mayfield the Right Roster

Enough, already! Can we PLEASE stop trying to make Justin Fields a thing in fantasy football? What are we doing!? I’m done with the cutesy little introductions and self-deprecating jokes. It’s time to take a stand. I don’t care if he runs, throws, flies, digs underground and shoots lasers out of his eyes! The Chicago Bears offense isn’t worth it. Fantasy football playoffs are here, for Booger McFarland’s sake! Some of us need to get our heads out of our buttcracks unless you’re still trying to figure out the best place for that last-place finisher tattoo you’re about to be forced into getting. 

So, let’s get to it and fire up those decisions. This week, we’ll touch on Geno Smith, Austin Ekeler, Gus Edwards, Garrett Wilson and more. But if you don’t see your player of interest, hit me up in the comments. Week 16 start vs. sit begins right now.

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Quarterback

START: Baker Mayfield (ECR: QB12). If you’re looking for a streamer in the playoffs, look no further than the No. 2 quarterback from Week 15 in Baker Mayfield. The former first-overall pick was dominant last week, completing 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns at the Packers, who rank 12th-worst in yards allowed per attempt (7.2). That was good for 29 fantasy points and a QB2 finish. Luckily for Mayfield, the Jaguars are equally as bad against the pass, as they are tied with the Packers in yards allowed per attempt while forfeiting 23 passing touchdowns — the seventh-worst mark in the league. As it relates to fantasy, Green Bay ranks 30th in terms of opposing quarterback scoring. This will be Mayfield’s third-straight QB1 showing and second-consecutive inside the top eight.

HAT TIP: Geno Smith (ECR: QB 14). Smith is in line to suit up against the Titans this week as he looks to stack back-to-back elite fantasy performances. Smith finished as QB1 overall the time last time he was active in Week 13, throwing for 334 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception at the Cowboys, who rank among the top-10 defense in the NFL in terms of fewest yards per attempt (6.7). The matchup difficulty flip-flops this week, as the Titans have surrendered the eighth-most yards per attempt (7.5). It might be Smith’s first game in three weeks, but he was active in Week 15 and shouldn’t have many limitations physically.

SIT: Justin Fields (ECR: QB3). I almost fell out of my chair when I saw Fields ranked as QB3 per ECR. What are we doing!? This is a player who ranks as QB20 this season BEHIND DEREK CARR AND JOSHUA DOBBS. So, in my efforts to save you, I’m basically going to plug and play what I wrote about Fields last week when he was the weekly sit and finished as QB26. Of the 10 games Fields has played this year, he has finished as a top-14 quarterback just four times. Two of those performances have come against the Detroit Lions — one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The other two showings came in Weeks 4 and 5 against a then-struggling Broncos team and the Commanders, who ranks dead-last in yards allowed per attempt (8.0) and passing touchdowns allowed (32). I don’t know who is trying to convince you to start Fields, but again, it’s a strategy that should be reserved only for those looking for the honorary last-place butt cheek tattoo.

Running Back 

START: Austin Ekeler (ECR: RB26). HC Brandon Staley is out of town and with that should come a big week from the Chargers lead back. We know the talent Ekeler possesses, as evidenced by his status as RB2 overall in 2023 drafts and 20-plus half-PPR points in three straight games from Weeks 8-10. So long as Ekeler garners 15-plus touches against a Bills front-seven allowing the fourth-most yards per carry (4.6) in the NFL, he should post top-20 numbers at the position. And I’m inclined to believe that he will. Top-20 play in Week 16.

HAT TIP: Gus Edwards (ECR: RB33). Yes, Gus Bus and the Ravens face a strong 49ers defense this week. Truthfully, that should temper everyone’s expectations for Edwards’ Week 16 fantasy output. But RB33? Edwards saw 17 touches last week, with Keaton Mitchell active at kickoff. With Mitchell now out of the fold, look for Edwards’ share of the carries to increase. Due to volume and the capabilities of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense, Gus Bus should still salvage RB2 numbers. It’s understandable if you have a stacked playoff roster with no room for Edwards in your lineup, but he’s a more than capable Flex and a top-25 option for those considering him at RB2. And you might be surprised to learn that the 49ers’ 4.3 yards allowed per carry is 12th-worst in the league.

SIT: Josh Jacobs (ECR: RB25). I almost went with David Montgomery here, as I feel he could ruin some fantasy seasons this weekend. But while I urge those to proceed with caution on Montgomery, even more pause should be given to Jacobs as he comes back from a quad injury. For starters, there’s the chance of reaggravation. But the Raiders are historically susceptible to blowouts at Arrowhead Stadium, which should be on everyone’s radar given the 10-point spread for the matchup and Las Vegas’ tumultuous outcomes on the gridiron over the past month. If KC jumps out to an early lead, JJ might see fewer than 10 touches and lose you your playoff matchup. 

Wide Receiver

START: Jakobi Meyers (ECR: WR33) AND Chris Godwin (ECR: WR25). While Jacobs suffers due to game script in Week 16, Meyers will surge. While Raiders-Chiefs won’t be overly competitive, it will lend to garbage yardage for Las Vegas for much of the second half. And should it somehow turn into a shootout? Even better. Look for WR2 production from Meyers in Week 16. As for Godwin, he returned to practice Friday and is in line to suit up against the Jaguars. Coming off his best game of the campaign (10 catches, 12 targets, 155 yards), Godwin should be in all lineups as a top-18 option at WR.

SIT: Garrett Wilson (ECR: WR22). There’s a lot to like about Wilson this week. For starters, Zach Wilson is out with a concussion. Then you look at the matchup against the Commanders, who rank last in the NFL with 8.0 yards allowed per pass attempt and 32 passing scores. You’d be silly not to consider both of those components. But at the end of the day, all that’s really doing is fooling you into a bad weekly play. The Jets are a mess, and Trevor Siemien is starting under center. In the last five weeks, Wilson has finished as WR150, WR23, WR43, WR10, and WR66 despite having just one unfavorable matchup in that span. If you’re looking to win a title in 2023, he needs to be on your bench. 

Tight End

START: Kyle Pitts (ECR: TE17). I’m not starting Dallas Goedert this week, but I’m also not interested in the tight ends ranked 11-16, either. If you have a guy ranked 1-9, fire him up. If not, my next suggestion is Pitts at TE17. The Colts are allowing the 11th-most FPPG to the tight end position this season, and Pitts has totaled 25 half-PPR points in the last three games, including 18 points over the previous two. I’d much rather have a top-nine guy, but Pitts is your safest play thereafter in Week 16, which is something I never thought I’d say.

SIT: Dallas Goedert (ECR: TE10). It’s easy to salivate over having a share of the Eagles’ offense, especially going into a game that they should win handily. But the Giants are actually a respectable pass defense, performing admirably against tight ends with the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to the position. And in Goedert’s last four games active, he has been TE27, TE27, TE18 and TE19. That isn’t going to help you advance.