Week 17 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

As I write my column for Fantasy Championship Week in most leagues, Week 17 has already kicked off in the NFL. The Chiefs have already defeated the Steelers and the Ravens mauled the Texans in Houston. I had no strong feelings about the players in my domain (third wide receivers and flexes) playing that I felt the need to call out.

It’s likely this will be the last of these columns I write for the 2024 NFL Fantasy Season. It’s been an honor to serve, and I hope, to entertain you some. Working for RazzballNFL has been a blast and my coworkers are a great group. Thank you for your attention and questions.

I’m in three home leagues that I’ve been playing in for at least 15 years. A friend and I are defending our title in a league that started in 2001, and in a league that has been going for more than 30 years, I managed to pull out my semi-final game on Monday night after having fallen behind 163-143 when the dust had settled on Sunday. I scored 182 and my opponent, I believe, scored the most points a losing team has ever scored in that non-PPR league with 176. The third league I lost in the first round by just over a point. Disappointing but not unprecedented.

For those of you at the brink of a championship, I’m hoping you’ll bring them home. And you’ll be seeing more of me.

Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WR 3’s and flexes and players we might sit.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!

 

STARTS

Player: Ladd McConkey

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 27

Spread: -4.0 at New England Patriots

Win/Loss: +1.3, W/L Index 110

Home/Road: +6.2, H/R Index 159

In the last five games Ladd McConkey has played, he has scored at least 14.3 PPR points, including 20.7 in a 17-13 win in Atlanta that was scarce of offense otherwise. Like that game, the books put the Chargers in position to win on the road.

As far as the home/road index of 159, that is skewered by a 29.1-point performance against the Saints in L.A. in Week 8. If anything, my ears are perked up by the relatively neutral win/loss index of 110: that says to me that outside of that game, McConkey has been better in losses more often than wins.

Which leads me to a pitfall with this prediction: will the Patriots try to win both their final two games, both at home or is there a possibility they save themselves for the rematch with Buffalo in Foxborough in Week 18?

For a professional sports franchise, I’m betting the former.

As of this writing the conditions won’t be an issue: 12% chance of rain, 39 degrees Fahrenheit, and a 3 MPH wind.

And the Patriots haven’t been getting mugged by slot receivers in the last six weeks, but they’ve been about league average. McConkey lines up inside 71% of the time.

The Chargers are still playing for a playoff spot and to find out where they’ll be traveling on Super Wildcard Weekend. Motivation shouldn’t be the issue. McConkey has been a mainstay for them down the stretch and should eclipse his 13.38-PPR point RazzballNFL forecast.                                                                                         

Player: Terry McLaurin

Team: Washington Commanders

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 30

Spread: -4.0 vs Atlanta Falcons

Win/Loss: +3.9, W/L Index 132

Home/Road: -1.2, H/R Index 92

Since Week 2, Terry McLaurin has had 15+ PPR points in every game he’s played except two: Week 5 against Cleveland in DC (13.4 points) and a nearly complete shutdown in Philadelphia in Week 11 (2.0 points).

The stakes are there for both teams: neither has clinched a playoff spot yet. Washington is in good shape, but I think they’d rather go to the winner of the NFC West or NFC South rather than Philadelphia. Atlanta gets in if they win out and would be the 3- or 4-seed.

The good: Atlanta is the worst team against wideouts in PPR points over the last six weeks by over five points a game and are a wide-funnel pass defense.

The bad: there’s an 80% chance of rain in DC as of this writing during the game. The temperature will be mild at 55 degrees Fahrenheit, and the wind will be modest at 7 MPH, but keep an eye on the weather.

Other than that, I’m looking forward to McLaurin eclipsing his RazzballNFL forecast of 12.44 PPR points and helping me win a fantasy championship.

Player: Garrett Wilson

Team: New York Jets

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 29

Spread: -9.0 at Buffalo Bills

Win/Loss: +2.5, W/L Index 119

Home/Road: +1.8, H/R Index 114

This is a bet on a fallen divisional rival playing for pride with a Hall of Fame quarterback. The indices are not terribly against this call, but I’m going out on a limb.

I’m not blind: Wilson’s game has been diminished by the arrival of Davante Adams in East Rutherford. He’s still on pace to have in the vicinity of 160 targets for the season but the pace has slowed since Adams arrived around Week 7.

The Bills have not been bad against wideouts in the last six weeks, but they are allowing PPR points above average, Wilson lines up wide on 71% of his snaps, and in a narrow loss in East Rutherford in Week 6, Wilson caught 8 of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. I don’t believe 24.7 PPR points are in the cards this time, but I believe Wilson will eclipse RazzballNFL’s 12.48-point projection.

 

 

SITS

 Player: Jerry Jeudy

Team: Cleveland Browns

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 35

Spread: +6.5 vs Miami Dolphins

Win/Loss: -2.5, W/L Index 79

Home/Road: -1.5, H/R Index 87

Jerry Jeudy is a case of “one of these things is not like the other” because the 40.5 PPR point outburst he had in a loss in Denver against his former team is so outside the norm for him, that it skewers the indices. So while the loss meter favors a 6.5-point underdog, it’s not that simple, nor should the edge to the road overly concern me. And while the weather can be a negative at this time of year, the current forecast for Sunday (49% chance of showers, 48 degrees Fahrenheit, 12 MPH winds) is not.

What concerns me is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson absorbed 5 sacks on 39 dropbacks, averaged 4.6 yards on his 34 pass attempts, and targeted running backs and tight ends 19 times. From Week 7 to Week 15 Jeudy had been averaging just under 9.4 targets a game; in Week 16 he had 3 targets.

DTR starts again on Sunday. Miami’s been an easier matchup for wide receivers the last six weeks than Cincinnati has been, but it doesn’t matter with the distribution of passes that Cleveland showed Cincinnati.

Miami is not a great road team and they aren’t playing for anything but pride, but I don’t know what Cleveland is playing for. This is also one of the lowest-scoring games predicted on the slate at 39.5 total points.

Jeudy has profited his fantasy managers this year but I don’t see him hitting his 11.93 PPR point projection on RazzballNFL.

Player: Jauan Jennings

Team: San Francisco 49ers

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 17

Spread: +3.0 vs Detroit Lions

Win/Loss: -4.2, W/L Index 64

Home/Road: -1.3, H/R Index 87

 Again, the indices are a little misleading with Jennings: a 46.5 PPR point game in Los Angeles against the Rams in Week 3 loss is quite a bit outside the norm of a guy that is a fifth or sixth option in the passing game of a healthy 49ers team.

Don’t get me wrong: Jennings is one of the best fifth or sixth passing game options most teams will ever see, and he’s a grinder. But the 49ers have also been ground to the nub by injuries. What at the beginning of the season was arguably the marquee Monday Night matchup of 2024 has become “Why did the NFL not flex this game?”

I could get bit on this call because the spread and the total points don’t match up with the 49ers team that just put up 6 at home against the Rams and 17 in Miami the last two weeks.

Capable as Jennings is of eclipsing our 15.38 PPR point projection this week as he has four times this season, he’s also been in single digits four of the last five weeks.

I believe we’re high on this one.

Player: Courtland Sutton

Team: Denver Broncos

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 20

Spread: +3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Win/Loss: +1.6, W/L Index 114

Home/Road: -2.9, H/R Index 79

Sutton’s role, on the other hand, has been steady. He has benefited as much from a rookie quarterback as McLaurin has. W/L is slightly with sitting, but H/R favors Sutton on the road.

My issue? The Bengals have a good pass defense and have allowed the fewest PPR points per game (12.6) to wideouts over the last six weeks by over a point. Sutton lines up wide 88% of the time.

A touchdown could make me eat my words, but in the two games since the Week 14 bye, Sutton has only managed to corral 8 of 15 targets from Bo Nix for 82 yards and a touchdown while not hitting 15 points either game.

While the weather won’t be bad (59% chance of rain, but 62 degrees Fahrenheit with 8 MPH winds), I think our forecast of 15.22 points is too high.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 17  and win those championships!