In our last article, we reviewed annual player contract incentives to see if we can use that information to help us with potential player props and DFS plays for Week 18. If you want to read that article, you can find it HERE! For this article, we are going to review what seasonal milestones are on the line that could help the player hit their player prop overs and give you potential Week 18 player prop bets to play. This article differs from the last one as there are no financial incentives in play for these, but instead, they could either break a team record or NFL record or surpass a meaningful milestone, i.e., 1,000 yards.
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Single Season Records
- Player: Tyreek Hill
- Single Season Receiving Yards Record
- Yards Needed: 247 Receiving Yards
- Player Prop: 91.5 Receiving Yards
If anyone can go off for 247 receiving yards in a game, it’s Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins are in a must-win game to secure a first-round home game. This should force them to lean on Hill, who already has a 200-yard receiving game this season. Hill did struggle vs. Buffalo early this season, but the Dolphins will be at home, which should help him beat his prop this week.
- Player: Puka Nacua
- Single Season Rookie Receptions and Receiving Yards Record
- Receptions / Receiving Yards Needed: 4 Receptions / 28 Receiving Yards
- Player Prop: TBD
Puka Nacua needs just four receptions and 28 receiving yards to break the all-time rookie single-season records. With most starters sitting this week, Puka should be fed early to get the record. The only issue is most props will be much higher, but if an alternative prop is available at 3.5 receptions and/or close to the 28-yard mark, take it!
1,000 Yard Marks
The following two charts outline how many players are close to the 1,000-yard mark in receiving and rushing yards this season. This is a significant milestone for any player, and if their player prop comes under what they need to hit that milestone, it could make for an interesting play in Week 18. Please note that some teams, i.e., 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Browns, are all locked into their playoff seeds, so players on those teams might not play or have already been ruled out. We would advise against playing those props.
1,000 Rushing Yards
| Player | Current Yards | Rushing Yards Needed | Player Prop |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 975 | 25 | TBD |
| Travis Etienne | 951 | 49 | TBD |
| Bijan Robinson | 948 | 52 | 57.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 935 | 65 | TBD |
| Joe Mixon | 923 | 77 | TBD |
| Najee Harris | 923 | 77 | TBD |
| Saquon Barkley | 916 | 84 | 59.5 |
| Rachaad White | 915 | 85 | 70.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 915 | 85 | 51.5 |
| James Conner | 890 | 110 | 70.5 |
1,000 Receiving Yards
| Player | Current Yards | Receiving Yards Needed | Player Prop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 984 | 16 | TBD |
| Chris Godwin | 973 | 27 | 51.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | 946 | 54 | 60.5 |
| Rashee Rice | 938 | 62 | TBD |
| Calvin Ridley | 910 | 90 | TBD |
| Evan Engram | 884 | 116 | TBD |
| Justin Jefferson | 882 | 118 | 86.5 |
Team Milestones
- Player: D.J. Moore
- Milestone: Bears Single Season Receiving Yards Record
- Player Prop: 66.5 Receiving Yards
D.J. Moore needs 208 receiving yards to surpass Brandon Marshall, which isn’t likely, but he has done it once this season. Back in Week 5, Moore went for 230 yards vs. the Commanders. Moore’s prop is coming in at just 66.5.
- Player: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Milestone: Lions Single Season Reception Record
- Player Prop: TBD
Amon-Ra St. Brown needs 11 receptions to tie the single-season record for receptions in a season for Detroit. This season, St. Brown has hit 12 receptions three times. More importantly, one of those games came against the Vikings.
- Player: A.J. Brown
- Milestone: Eagles Single Season Receiving Yards Record
- Player Prop: TBD
A.J. Brown needs 53 receiving yards to become the first Eagles wide receiver to go over 1500 yards in a season. It should help that he missed that mark by four yards in 2022, so if you can get any line close to 53, I would take it.
- Player: Jalen Hurts
- Milestone: Eagles Single Season Passing Yards Record
- Player Prop: TBD
Jalen Hurts is just 236 passing yards behind Carson Wentz for leading the Eagles in passing yards in a season. In a must-win game vs. the Giants, Hurts has a shot at the record after throwing for 300 yards earlier this year against New York.
- Player: Mike Evans
- Milestone: Buccaneers Single Season Touchdown Record
- Player Prop: Anytime TD
Mike Evans already has the record from a previous season, but if he scores once, he will tie his record of 14. Most books will have his prop at 0.5 TDs (or anytime TD), and with Baker Mayfield needing to have a big game himself, it’s worth taking a flyer.
For more from Bobby and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @bobbylamarco.
Sources: Razzball.com, PFF.com, FantasyPros, FFToday, Pro Football Reference, Spotrac.com, and Football Outsiders
