Week 2 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

Welcome to my first article for Razzball! I’ll be discussing some of the deeper players that we might be inserting into our lineups and how Razzball’s Win/Loss Players Splits database is information that can help us with decision-making.

The Razzball Win/Loss Players Splits database (has 2023 PPR scoring for 400+ quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends currently broken by column into wins a player participated in for 2023 (“Wins” column), losses a player participated in for 2023 (“Losses” column), average PPR points scored in wins (“Win PPR”) and scored in losses (“Loss PPR”), the difference in average PPR scoring between wins and losses (“Win-Loss PPR”), the percentage of average PPR points scored in wins vs. losses (“Win/Loss PPR Index”).

There are also data points for average PPR points in “One Score Games” (games where the player’s team was within 8 points of their opponent, win or lose), “8+ Point Loss” (the player’s team lost by more than eight points), and “8+ Point Wins” (the player’s team won by more than eight points) and accompanying PPR average points in those occurrences.

Personally speaking, when it comes to the top players, I’d have to have a compelling reason to bench them; but where this tool can help is setting expectations for performances among those players. I think this can help with quarterbacks at nearly any point of their rankings. I’ll go deeper into the rankings for running backs and wide receivers, beyond the top 20, but not too deep, as the fewer data there is in 2023 for a player, the variances become illogical. And of course, there is no data for 2024 rookies.

Deep Quarterback Play of the Week: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA – this is both one of the higher-scoring games on the Week 2 slate and one of the closest in the eyes of bettors. The Buffalo defense is different without Matt Milano on the field. To help tip the scale, Tua was +7 in PPG in wins for 2023 (18.4 in wins, 11.4 in losses), Miami is favored, and I think they win this.

Deep Running Back Play of the Week for Flex: Alexander Mattison, LV – I believe we saw in Week 1 what will happen if the Raiders need to play catch up: Mattison will get the passing role in the backfield. The Raiders are heavy underdogs on the road in Baltimore, and in 2023, being in a losing situation benefited Mattison with the Vikings (8.7 PPR average in wins, 8.9 in losses)
Deep Wide Receiver Play of the Week for Flex: Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants – A healthy Wan’Dale has been productive. The game is predicted to be close, and the Commanders’ defense is less daunting than the Vikings were. Wan’Dale performed similarly in wins and losses in 2023 (9.5 PPR points per game in wins, 8.9 in losses).

Deep Tight End Play of the Week: Cade Otton, TB – It was ugly for Cade in Week 1, but it was starvation for all Bucs’ pass catchers that didn’t have Evans, Godwin, or R. White on the back of their jerseys as Baker Mayfield only threw 30 passes against Washington. I expect they’ll need to throw more to keep up with Detroit at Ford Field, and I believe Otton will be a beneficiary. Otton is also favored by the Win/Loss DB (5.2 PPR PPG average in wins, 8.0 in losses), and Detroit is a heavy favorite in the sportsbooks’ highest-scoring game of the week.

That’s it for this week. I promise to speak less next week when I’m not explaining why I exist. Please comment and feel free to ask questions below. Good luck in Week 2 and get those W’s!