The first Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and I hope it was a successful one for you. For me, it was a mixed bag. My DFS lineups were competitive but failed to bring me a positive ROI. However, my prop plays were very lucrative, especially the 4-leg anytime TD parlay. I don’t recommend doing that often but the four I picked seemed fairly obvious and it worked out this time. Overall, I had a 43% Win percentage and 210% ROI. I’ll take it! Let’s see if we can have similar success this week.
I’m going to change up the column a bit this time. As you may have noticed in the title, I’m going to add props I like this week. Also, instead of helping you craft a lineup, I’m just going to give you my high-end and low-end recommendations based on the information in our Razzball tools, and let you do the rest.
What I’d recommend is taking your favorite recommendations from our free tools and plugging them into our premium Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineup. I covered our free and premium tools at some length last week. If you want more information on that, you can review the article HERE or just visit our site at football.razzball.com.
Paying Up
- Player: Jayden Daniels
- Game: New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
- DK: $6,200 / FD: $7,900
Jayden Daniels did most of his fantasy work on the ground last week, rushing 16 times for 88 yards and 2 TDs. He was less than spectacular with his arm though, completing 17 of 24 for 184 yards but no score (yet no INT either). The legs provide a nice floor in fantasy while we wait for his arm to come around. Facing a Giants defense giving up the 2nd highest completion percent and 6th most yards per attempt may be just what the fantasy doctors ordered. The Commanders would be fools to continue rushing him 16 times per game, so look for more of a balanced fantasy scoring day on Sunday.
- Player: Derrick Henry
- Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
- DK: $6,700 / FD: $7,500
I probably don’t need to regale you in stats to make the case for Derrick Henry against the Raiders Sunday. Here are just a couple then: the Raiders gave up 176 yards on the ground last week, two of which were 40+ yard rushes. That was a combined 161 yards to the two former Ravens backs. You think Henry can outpace J.K. Dobbins? I do. That said, Justice Hill (DK: $5,200/ FD: $5,100) makes for an interesting play as well.
- Player: A.J. Brown
- Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
- DK: $7,900 / FD: $8,600
The Falcons defense gave up 69% of all WR fantasy points out wide in their Week 1 game against the Steelers. Versus the Packers, Brown lined up out wide a majority of the game last week and scored over 90% of his fantasy points there. He’s become known as one of the most productive outside WRs in the game. You think that changes this week against a vulnerable defense? I don’t either.
- Player: Travis Kelce
- Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
- DK: $6,200 / FD: $7,400
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m off the Kelce train in the fantasy world in practically all formats. I rarely spend up for TEs in DFS. However, if you’re not like me and want to use your budget here in DFS, this may be a good week to get your share of Kelce. You may recall the Bengals as being one of the best TE matchups to exploit last season. Well, this is a new season and optimism is high and yet, the Patriots leading receiver last week was none-other-than Austin Hooper. The Chiefs are not the Patriots and Hooper is no Kelce.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Daniel Jones
- Game: New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
- DK: $5,300 / FD: $6,900
Fans were demanding change from Danny Dimes after a dreadful season debut versus the Vikings last week. He completed less than 50% of his passes for a buck eighty-six and 2 INTs. Gross! So, why am I wasting precious cyber ink on him? Well, this may end up being his last hurrah. If he can’t do it against a defense that allowed the highest QB completion % and almost 10 yards per attempt, he will likely lose his job. So, give it one more run. Some of his best games of his career are against the Commanders. In fact, I suggest you do a mini-NYG stack in your GPP lineup with Wan’Dale Robinson (DK: $4,300, FD: $5,400) – his primary slot target operating against a defense giving up two-thirds fantasy points to slot WRs.
- Player: Chase Brown
- Team: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
- DK: $4,700 / FD: $5,400
For all their glory, the Chiefs tend to be vulnerable against the run. Last season, their defense gave up 4.5 yards per carry and the 2nd most 40+ yard rushes. The 2024 season didn’t start off much better, allowing 185 yards and the most rushing first downs (13) last week. With the passing game in turmoil, the Bengals may want to exploit this with Zach Moss and Chase Brown. Moss out snapped Brown 2:1 and got the bulk of the groundwork last week, but it’s worth noting Brown secured all three of his targets. I anticipate a more even workload split this week to help keep the Chiefs offense on the sidelines. His projected ownership is sitting at about one half a percent and the price is right to take a shot.
- Player: Jalen McMillan
- Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
- DK: $3,600 / FD: $5,200
A super-cheap WR option in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week. McMillan is not going to get a lot of targets, but the Bucs are using him to blow the lid off the defense (current aDOT of 18.0). His stat line (1 REC for 38-yd TD) is a little misleading in that he and Baker just missed connecting on a deep shot down the sideline early in the game. Detroit put a lot of attention on their defensive secondary but early returns are not promising, with Stafford throwing for 300+ on them last week. While everyone is keeping an eye on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, look for McMillan to be a sneaky cheap play.
- Player: Colby Parkinson
- Team: Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
- DK: $3,100 / FD: $4,800
Much to the chagrin of Dalton Kincaid owners, Josh Allen only targeted his TEs four times last week, opting for a more run-first attack against the Cardinals. While the volume wasn’t there against the Cardinals defense, the results were more promising. The Cardinals defense gave up the second-highest average yards to TEs, averaging 17 yards per completion. Perhaps the Bills could have exploited that a little more, but that is in the past. Looking forward, Matthew Stafford does target his offensive-minded TE and being down one Puka Nacua, he’ll be looking for alternate options he trusts. Parkinson’s 41 routes run last week tells me they trust him.
If for some reason you prefer to use another TE in this price range, I’ll give you another offensive-minded TE, Mike Gesicki, as an alternate cheap TE play (DK: $3,100, FD: $5,000) against a Chiefs defense that just got torched by Isaiah Likely (9 Rec, 111 Yds, 1 TD).
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Baker Mayfield (Yards, 2+ TDs): Baker has many weapons and most importantly, appears comfortable in his own skin. Detroit gives up a lot of passing yards (317 yards to Matthew Stafford) and this is the week’s highest projected scoring total.
Gus Edwards (anytime TD): CAR defense gave up the most rushing TDs last season and were already torched for 180 yards last week. Gus had 3 Red Zone carries last week as well.
Najee Harris (Rush Attempts, Yards, anytime TD): In 2023, the Broncos defense allowed over 5 yards per carry and gave up the most 40+ yard rushes (3rd most 20+ yard rushes). They’ve already allowed two 20+ yard rushes and a pair of rushing TDs. We thought the Steelers backfield would be a timeshare…it appears we were wrong. Expect Harris to continue receiving the bulk of the opportunity and may find the end zone this weekend.
Josh Jacobs (Yards, anytime TD): Teams run on the Colts (reference: Joe Mixon’s 159 yards and 1 TD). Josh Jacobs stands to get extra work with Jordan Love on the shelf. This game should not be a blowout, so Jacobs gets full workload. Look at the over in yards and consider anytime TD.
Tyler Boyd (Receptions): SF WRs (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings) found success running from the slot against the Jets. Tyler Boyd is the Titans primary slot receiver and targeted five times vs the Bears.
Cooper Kupp (Receptions, Yards): The Cardinals are vulnerable in the slot and Kupp is, well Cooper Kupp again, exploiting defenses primarily from the slot.
Michael Wilson (Receptions): He’s on the field for a vast majority of team snaps but wasn’t targeted often against the Bills CBs. The Rams are the friendliest defense to wideouts and Wilson’s prop number should be very low.
Kyle Pitts (Yards, anytime TD): Phily defense is the most generous, averaging 18.5 yards per completion to TEs. Kyle Pitts is a big play TE and receiving looks in the red zone. Kirk Cousins is not as bad as he showed in week 1 (right?). Consider plus odds at 50+ yards (slam it at 40+, if available) and anytime TD.
That’s All Folks
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!
